For what it’s worth, yesterday I only had one parlay, the Braves 1st 5 ML and the Braves full game ML, and it cashed despite Chris Sale getting scratched. Sale’s absence did get me a much better price, so I kept the bet.
I finished the day +1.82 units and am now +305.21 units for the season. That’s still an amazing turnround for someone who spent the first five month of the 2024 season struggling to get out of his own way.
2024 has been a truly strange season for me. More than three weeks ago, I got very sick with Covid. I thought that I might actually die, but I finally fully recovered.
The really strange thing is that after I was finally well enough to resume picking games (I missed about a week) my handicapping results suddenly and inexplicably improved dramatically. I can’t explain it and I won’t even try. I was too damned sick to do much detailed handicapping and I wasn’t doing anything differently, but I just started winning like crazy. I guess that It was just one of those weird coincidences and probably didn’t mean a damned thing. I do think that almost six months into the 2024 MLB season, I had a better handle on who or what these MLB teams really were.
We are now in the playoffs and we have four wild card games today and I’ve got an opinion on all of them. Here’s the card.
|
ML Parlays
|
Team
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
1.89
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
MIL ML
|
187
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
174
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
SD ML
|
169
|
2
|
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
MIL ML
|
192
|
2
|
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
178
|
2
|
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
SD ML
|
173
|
2
|
|
|
MIL ML
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
176
|
2
|
|
|
MIL ML
|
SD ML
|
171
|
2
|
|
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
SD ML
|
159
|
2
|
|
Sides
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
|
110
|
2
|
Here are my thoughts on those four games.
DET @ HOU
The Tigers earned an AL wild card during the last couple of weeks, while the Astros pretty much led the AL West all season long.
Starting Pitchers
|
2:30
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
DET
|
Skubal - L *18-4)
|
(26/31)
|
(4/31)
|
0.92
|
2.39
|
2.70
|
2.49
|
2.83
|
2.89
|
0.246
|
0.259
|
30.3%
|
4.6%
|
|
HOU
|
Valdez - L (15-7)
|
(21/28)
|
(7/28)
|
1.11
|
2.91
|
3.36
|
3.25
|
3.08
|
3.63
|
0.272
|
0.288
|
24.0%
|
7.8%
|
Edge – DET
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
|
DET
|
4.21
|
19
|
0.234
|
23
|
0.299
|
25
|
95
|
21
|
0.151
|
21
|
7.9%
|
18
|
5.3
|
9
|
24.3%
|
23
|
29.8%
|
25
|
|
HOU
|
4.60
|
10
|
0.262
|
3
|
0.321
|
7
|
111
|
5
|
0.157
|
12
|
7.3%
|
27
|
-12.8
|
28
|
19.3%
|
2
|
30.0%
|
24
|
Edge – HOU, big
Conclusion: The Astros are the better team here and they’ve been here before, so they also have the experience edge. The Astros are the much better hitting team here. The Tigers are the worst hitting team in the playoffs. However, this is all about the two starting pitchers and there’s just no way the Tigers don’t get that edge. Tarik Skubal will almost certainly win the AL Cy Young and deservedly so, with 26 of his 31 starts grading as above average, a sub 1.00 WHIP, an ERA and ERA metrics that are all in the 2s and a wOBA and xwOBA that are both more than 50 points lower than league average. Skubal is averaging more than 10.5 Ks per 9 innings, while averaging barely over 1.5 walks. No offense to Framber Valdez who delivered a fine season in his own right, but his stat profile, while still very good is across the board worse than Skubal’s.
Skubal’s been a “bet on” all season for me and I’m not changing today.
Pick – DET 1st 5 ML in a side bet
KC @ BALT
The Royals almost succeeded in blowing the AL wild card spot in the last month of the season, but fortunately for them, the Twins were even worse down the stretch and did succeed in blowing their shot. The Orioles battled the Yankees right to the end in the AL East, but were never any lower than the top AL wild card spot.
Starting Pitchers
|
4:00
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
KC
|
Ragans - L (11-9)
|
(21/32)
|
(9/32)
|
1.14
|
3.14
|
3.27
|
2.99
|
3.46
|
3.49
|
0.277
|
0.284
|
29.3%
|
8.8%
|
|
BALT
|
Burnes - R (15-9)
|
(25/32)
|
(6/32)
|
1.10
|
2.92
|
3.27
|
3.55
|
3.55
|
3.75
|
0.273
|
0.284
|
23.1%
|
6.1%
|
Edge – None
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
KC
|
26
|
26
|
41
|
23
|
70.0%
|
22
|
0.50
|
18
|
0.245
|
25
|
1.33
|
23
|
4.13
|
20
|
20.8%
|
28
|
8.8%
|
16
|
|
BALT
|
29
|
22
|
46
|
21
|
67.8%
|
26
|
0.52
|
23
|
0.226
|
10
|
1.23
|
8
|
4.22
|
23
|
24.2%
|
10
|
8.9%
|
18
|
Edge – None
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
|
KC
|
4.54
|
13
|
0.248
|
8
|
0.307
|
14
|
96
|
20
|
0.156
|
17
|
7.2%
|
28
|
9.0
|
7
|
19.4%
|
3
|
31.4%
|
14
|
|
BALT
|
4.85
|
4
|
0.250
|
7
|
0.324
|
5
|
115
|
3
|
0.186
|
2
|
7.9%
|
18
|
-0.1
|
16
|
22.0%
|
13
|
34.1%
|
4
|
Edge – BALT
Conclusion: The Orioles are probably the better team here, but it is closer than I would have hoped. The O’s big edge is their offense. The O’s average about a third of a run more than the Royals with a 17-point better wOBA and a 19-point better wRC+. These two bullpens look very close statistically and the starting pitching matchup also appears too close to give an edge to either Cole Ragans or Corbin Burnes.
Pick – BALT ML in a series of parlays
NYM @ MIL
Make no mistake, the Mets were damned lucky to win that first game yesterday. dThet trailed 3-0 entering the 8th and 7-6 entering the 9th. By all rights, they should have lost that game, but the Braves’ pen imploded.
Starting Pitchers
|
5:30
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
NYM
|
Severino - R (11-7)
|
(17/31)
|
(14-31)
|
1.24
|
3.91
|
3.88
|
4.21
|
4.12
|
4.22
|
0.307
|
0.308
|
21.2%
|
9.0%
|
|
MIL
|
Peralta - R (11-9)
|
(20/32)
|
(12/32)
|
1.21
|
3.68
|
3.88
|
4.16
|
3.93
|
3.78
|
0.305
|
0.308
|
27.6%
|
9.4%
|
Edge – MIL
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
NYM
|
38
|
28
|
39
|
24
|
70.4%
|
20
|
0.51
|
19
|
0.219
|
4
|
1.27
|
14
|
3.97
|
16
|
27.8%
|
1
|
10.7%
|
27
|
|
MIL
|
51
|
28
|
53
|
19
|
78.1%
|
2
|
0.38
|
2
|
0.218
|
3
|
1.16
|
3
|
3.11
|
2
|
23.8%
|
13
|
8.3%
|
9
|
Edge – MIL, big
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
|
NYM
|
4.74
|
7
|
0.247
|
11
|
0.321
|
7
|
109
|
7
|
0.169
|
7
|
8.4%
|
7
|
-8.7
|
23
|
22.4%
|
16
|
32.3%
|
8
|
|
MIL
|
4.80
|
6
|
0.248
|
8
|
0.319
|
10
|
104
|
10
|
0.155
|
18
|
9.7%
|
2
|
19.8
|
1
|
23.6%
|
18
|
31.6%
|
12
|
Edge – NYM, but close
Conclusion: The Mets earned an NL wild card spot with a strong final push in September, while the Brewers easily won the NL Central pretty much from day 1. These two teams can both hit, but of the two, the Mets have the slightly better offensive stat profile. However, the Brewers have the vastly superior bullpen and that should give them a big edge if this game is close late. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and the Brewers Freddy Peralta has been the better and more consistent starting pitcher this season. Peralta delivered the better ratio of above to below average starts, as well as a lower ERA and ERA metrics with a better K rate.
The Brewers should win this one because of better pitching.
Pick – MIL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
ATL @ SD
The Braves beat the Mets 3-0 to clinch an NL wild card spot and eliminate the Diamondbacks.
Starting Pitchers
|
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
ATL
|
???
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SD
|
King - R (13-9)
|
(20/30)
|
(9/30)
|
1.19
|
2.95
|
3.54
|
3.33
|
3.50
|
3.63
|
0.284
|
0.285
|
27.7%
|
8.7%
|
Edge – SD
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
ATL
|
32
|
26
|
39
|
20
|
75.7%
|
3
|
0.41
|
3
|
0.227
|
12
|
1.18
|
5
|
3.25
|
3
|
26.7%
|
2
|
7.8%
|
3
|
|
SD
|
39
|
19
|
44
|
23
|
72.7%
|
11
|
0.46
|
8
|
0.236
|
17
|
1.23
|
8
|
3.78
|
11
|
24.8%
|
8
|
7.7%
|
2
|
Edge – None
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
|
ATL
|
4.35
|
15
|
0.243
|
15
|
0.314
|
12
|
100
|
16
|
0.172
|
5
|
7.9%
|
18
|
-10.5
|
25
|
24.1%
|
22
|
34.9%
|
1
|
|
SD
|
4.69
|
8
|
0.263
|
1
|
0.324
|
5
|
111
|
5
|
0.157
|
12
|
7.5%
|
25
|
4.7
|
11
|
17.6%
|
1
|
30.6%
|
21
|
Edge – SD
Conclusion: The Padres were the better hitting team this season, averaging about a third of a run more per game than the Braves with a 10-point better wOBA and an 11-point better wRRC+. On oaoer these two bullpens look close, but since the AS break, the Padres pen has been one of the best in baseball. The Brave pen absolutely imploded in the rirst game yesterday and was used extensively in both games yesterday to the tune of 7 innings, giving the Padres pen a big rest advantage. Thai bring us to the two starting pitchers.
The Braves haven’t announced their starting pitcher, but according to MLB.com, Ian Anderson is a candidate to start today’s game for the Braves. A.J. Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder are also still in the mix. Andersonn hasn't pitched in the majors since 2022 but has impressive postseason numbers, as he's posted a 1.04 WHIP and 1.26 ERA, with a 40/17 K/BB over 35.2 postseason innings (eight starts).
Michael King has had a remarkable successful season as a forst-time starter in the Padres rotation, with 20 of his 30 starts grading as above average and a solid stat profile.
The Padres were the better team this season and I expect them to be the better team tonight. No matter who ultimately gets the start will be on a very short leash and the Brave will again need to rely on a tired pen again tonight.
Pick - SD 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays