For what it’s worth, yesterday I passed on the entire card. I didn’t feel comfortable betting anything on the last day of the regular season.
I am now +303.39 units for the season. That’s still an amazing turnround for someone who spent the first five month of the 2024 season struggling to get out of his own way.
2024 has been a truly strange season for me. More than three weeks ago, I got very sick with Covid. I thought that I might actually die. I am finally fully recovered now.
The really strange thing is that after I was finally well enough to resume picking games (I missed about a week) my handicapping results suddenly and inexplicably improved dramatically. I can’t explain it and I won’t even try. I was too sick to do much detailed handicapping and I wasn’t doing anything differently, but I just started winning like crazy. I guess that It was just one of those weird coincidences and probably didn’t mean a damned thing. I do think that almost six months into the 2024 MLB season, I had a better handle on who or what these MLB teams really were.
We only have two games today and I only like the second one, but only if the Braves lose the first game., which they just did.
Here are my thoughts on the second game today.
NYM @ ATL
The Mets won the first game 8-7, clinching a n NL wild card spot. For the Braves, the second game now becomes a must win or their season is over and the Diamondbacks get in.
Starting Pitchers
|
1:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
NYM
|
Severino - R (11-7)
|
(17/31)
|
(14-31)
|
1.24
|
3.91
|
3.88
|
4.21
|
4.12
|
4.22
|
0.307
|
0.308
|
21.2%
|
9.0%
|
|
ATL
|
Sale - L (18-3)
|
(25/29)
|
(2/29)
|
1.01
|
2.38
|
2.79
|
2.09
|
2.64
|
2.80
|
0.260
|
0.263
|
32.1%
|
6.5%
|
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
NYM
|
38
|
28
|
39
|
24
|
70.4%
|
20
|
0.51
|
19
|
0.219
|
4
|
1.27
|
14
|
3.97
|
16
|
27.8%
|
1
|
10.7%
|
27
|
|
ATL
|
32
|
26
|
39
|
20
|
75.7%
|
3
|
0.41
|
3
|
0.227
|
12
|
1.18
|
5
|
3.25
|
3
|
26.7%
|
2
|
7.8%
|
3
|
Edge – ATL
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
|
NYM
|
4.75
|
7
|
0.247
|
11
|
0.321
|
7
|
109
|
7
|
0.169
|
7
|
8.4%
|
7
|
-8.7
|
23
|
22.4%
|
16
|
32.3%
|
8
|
|
ATL
|
4.34
|
15
|
0.243
|
15
|
0.314
|
12
|
100
|
16
|
0.172
|
5
|
7.9%
|
18
|
-10.5
|
25
|
24.1%
|
22
|
34.9%
|
1
|
Edge – NYM, but close
Conclusion: This is the second game of a doubleheader. I considered the first too close to bet on either team and it was that close.
The Mets punched their ticket to the playoffs by winning the fist game.
I give the Braves one significant edge in this second game and that is the starting pitching matchup between Luis Severino and Chris Sale.
Luis Severino was scheduled to start the second game today. Whether he does now is not certain. The Mets could save him for the playoffs. If they don’t start Severino, whoever they start will be a downgrade. Severino has started 31 gams for the Mets this season with 17 grading as above average and 14 grading as below. His WHIP and ERA are both solid, but his ERA metrics are all a little higher than his ERA. Severino’s wOBA and xwOBA are both slightly lower than league average. He is striking out a little less than a batter per inning, but he is walking almost 3 batters per 9 innings.
By contrast, Chris Sale has had a great season, with an astounding 25 if his 29 starts grading as above average and just 2 grading as below. His stat profile is, across the board, better than Severino’s. His WHIP is barely over 1.00 and his ERA and ERA metrics are all in the 2s. Sale’s wOBA and xwOBA are both more than 40 points lower than Severino’s and an almost 11% higher K rate, as well as a 2.5% lower walk rate.
This is a must win for the Braves and they have to use Sale, their best pitcher.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a parlay (-205 for 2 units)