For what it’s worth, yesterday turned out to be another totally insignificant day for me.  I had four sides on my parlay card, the Tigers ML, the Braves 1^st 5 and full game MLs, and the Twins 1^st 5 ML.  Only the Twins failed to cash.  I also had one side bet on the Mets 1^st 5 ML and that was also a loser

I finished the day a miniscule +0.74 units, leaving me +303.39 units for the season.  That is still an amazing turnround for someone who spent the first five month of the 2024 season struggling to get out of his own way.

2024 has been a truly strange season for me.  Just over three weeks ago, I got very sick with Covid.  I thought that I might actually die.  I am much better now, maybe not 100% yet, but getting there. 

The really strange thing is that after I was finally well enough to resume picking games (I missed about a week) my handicapping results suddenly and inexplicably improved dramatically.  I can’t explain it.  I was too sick to do much detailed handicapping and I wasn’t doing anything differently, but I just started winning like crazy.  It was just one of those weird coincidences and probably didn’t mean anything.   I also think that almost six months into the 2024 MLB season, I had a better handle on who or what these teams really are.

 With just a few days left in the regular season and a lot of meaningless games being played, there aren’t many games that I’m willing to put money on.  Here is my small Saturday card.

While I am much better, I’m still not completely recovered yet, so I’m taking it easy until the playoffs next week.  Here are my thoughts on the early games that I am playing today.  I’ll post thought on the two later evening games later on.

CHI WS @ DET

The White Sox lost their record-breaking 121^st game of the season with a 4-1 loss to the Tigers yesterday, eclipsing the 1962 Mets.   for the modern major league record for losses.  The Tigers are in the playoffs and currently hold the 2^nd AL wild card tied with the Royals for the 2^nd AL wild card spot, a game ahead of the Royals.  ahead of the Twins with just 3 games left to play.

The Tigers aren’t a very good hitting team, but they still average over a run more per game than the White Sox, who are the worst hitting team in baseball, with a 27-point better wOBA and an 11- point better wRC+.   They also have the better bullpen with a WHIP that is 40-pointt lower and an ERA that is over a full run lower.   That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Sean Burke has appeared in 3 games for the White Sos and started 2, giving up 3 earned run on 10 hits and 4 walks over iver 14 innings with an impressive 16 Ks.   Beau Brieske notched his first save of the season on Tuesday, and followed that up with a critical win.   Brieske has posted a solid 3.56 ERA with 68 Ks over 65.2 innings this season.

Sooner or later, the White Sox will have to go to their wretched bullpen and when they do, it ballgame,      

 Pick – DET ML in a series of parlays

PHIL @ WASH

The Phils got blown out by the Nats 9-1 last night in a totally ,eaningless game yesterday. The Phils have already clinched the NL East and will probably get the 2^nd bye in the NL playoffs.  The Nats have been dead for a long time. 

The Phils are the better hitting team and even have the better bullpen.  They also have the better starting pitcher.  Zack wheeler is elite. His 1-0 loss to the Mets in his last start was only Wheeler's 2^nd since the beginning of August, and he's now reeled off 10 straight quality starts. Wheeler sits third in baseball in wins, ERA (2.56) and WHIP (0.96), and he's fourth in innings pitched (193.2) and fifth in strikeouts (213).  MacKenzie Gore has put together a strong run of five quality starts in his last six outings, with a 1.82 ERA over that stretch, and he's reached double-digit wins for the first time in his still young career.         

This game doesn’t matter to either team and that concerns me, but although Gore has put up a solid season, Wheeler is still the better pitcher.

Pick - PHIL 1^st 5 ML in a series of parlays

NYM @ MIL

The Brewers beat the Mets 8-4 last night.  The Mets are now in a three-way tie with the Braves and Diamondbacks for the final two NL wild card spots.  The Brewers have already clinched the NL Central and  appear unlikely to catch the PHILs or the Dodgers for a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Offensively, these two teams are almost identical with the Brewers averaging just 0.04 more runs per game than the Mets, but the Mets having an 0.03 better wOBA and 6-point better wRC+/  As for the two bullpens, The Brewers have a statistically significantly better unit that the Mets with a 10-point better WHIP and a 0.10 better ERA.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers.  Jose Quintana has won four straight starts and has excelled over his last five outings, giving up  just 2 runs (1 earned) over 32 innings with a 20/9 K/BB ratio. All six of Quintana's scoreless outings this season have come since the start of July. His overall WHIP now sits at 1.24 and his ERA at 3.74 with a26/61 K/BB over 166 innings in his 30 starts this season.  Jared  Koenig will serve as the Brewers' opener today against the Mets.  Koenig worked as an opener frequently during the first half of the season, though Saturday will be the first time he's done so since returning from the IL in July. The 30-year-old southpaw owns a 1.30 WHIP and  3.60 ERA over 10 innings since the start of September, and he'll likely only remain in the game for an inning or two before turning things over to Colin Rea, who is expected to pitch in bulk relief.

 The Brewers aren’t playing for anything, so I question how motivated they will actually be, but that wasn’t an issue last night.  By contrast this game is absolutely crucial to the Mets who have yet to secure a playoff spot and can’t afford another loss. 

Pick – NYM ML in a side bet