For what it’s worth, yesterday turned out to be a totally insignificant day for me.  I only had two side bets on one game, the Padres 1^st 5 ML and the Padres full game ML.  The Padres win the 1^st 5, 2-0, but ended up losing the full game 7-2, which gave the Dodgers the NL West crown.   

I finished the day a miniscule +0.16 units, leaving me +302.65 units for the season.  That is still an amazing turnround for someone who spent the first five month of the 2024 season struggling to get out of his own way. 2024 has been a truly strange season for me.  Close to three weeks ago, I got very sick with Covid.  I thought that I might actually die.  I am much better now, maybe not 100% yet, but getting there. 

The really strange thing is that after I was finally well enough to resume picking games (I missed about a week) my handicapping results suddenly and inexplicably improved dramatically.  I can’t explain it.  I was too sick to do much detailed handicapping and I wasn’t doing anything differently, but I just started winning like crazy.  It was just one of those weird coincidences and probably didn’t mean anything.   I also think that almost six months into the 2024 MLB season, I had a better handle on who or what these teams really are.

 With just a few days left in the regular season and a lot of meaningless games being played, there aren’t many games that I’m willing to put money on.  Here is my small Friday card.

While I am much better, I’m still not completely recovered yet, so I’m taking it easy until the playoffs next week.  Here are my thoughts on the early games that I am playing.  I am still also looking at possibly playing the late SD @ ARIZ game, but I haven’t made up my mind yet.  If I have a play, I’ll post it later on.  For now, here is what I have.

CHI WS @ DET

The White Sox averted a record-breaking 121^st loss for the third straight day, beating the Angels 7-0 last night behind a rare sharp out ing from Chris Flexen.  The Whit26 point better wOBA and a 26-point better wOBAe Sox improved to 39-120 by sweeping the Angels and remain tied with the 1962 Mets for the modern major league record for losses.  The Tigers beat the visiting Rays 4-3 to complete a three-game sweep if that series.  The are currently tied with the Royals for the 2^nd AL Wild Card spot, 3 games ahead of the Twins with just 3 games left to play.

The Tigers aren’t a very good hitting team, but they still average over a run more per game than the White Sox, who are the worst hitting team in baseball, with a 26-point better wOBA and a 20 point better wRC+.   They also have the better bullpen with an ERA that is over a full run lower than that White Sox’s dread unit and a WHIP that is 27 point lower.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers.  Garrett Crochet has been one of the very few bright spots on this awful White Sox; team this season, but his 's workload limit continues to shrink reached four innings in seven of his 12 outings since he was placed on a pitch count. Overall, Crochet has a 1.06 WHIP and 3.68 ERA, with a 203/32 K/BB ratio over 142 innings in 31 starts for the White Sox.  27-year-old Casey Mize missed two months with a hamstring injury this season, which contributed to a mediocre 1.45 WHIP and 4.37 ERA over 101 innings.    

 Pick – DET ML in a series of parlays

KC @ ATL

The Royals beat the Nats 7-4 in DC yesterday to complete a three-game sweep.   They are now tied with the Tigers for the 2^nd NL wild card spot, 3 games ahead of the Twins with 3 games left to play.  The Braves now trail the Mets and Diamondbacks by just 1 game for the 2^nd and 3^rd NL wild card spots withh 5 games left to play.

Offensively these two tears are almost identical.  The Royals average 0.21 more runs per game than the Braves, but it is the Braves who have the 0.06 better wOBA and 3-point better wRC+.  As for the two bullpens, it is the Braves who possess the statistically better unit with a 13-point better WHIP and an almost full run better ERA.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers.  Brady Singer has gone at least five innings in each of his last 10 starts, but has notched just two wins while giving up four or more earned runs five times over that span. On the season, he holds  a solid 1.25 WHIP and 3.73 ERA, with a 165/51 K/BB ratio over 173.2 innings.  Max Fried delivered his 2^nd straight quality start and 4^th in his last five outings in his last start at the Marlins, but left the mound with the score tied 2-2 before the Braves; offense erupted in the top of the 7^th to get him the win. Over his last 8 starts, Fried has posted a stellar 1.09 WHIP and 3.10 ERA, with a 47/13 K/BB ratio over 49.1 innings.

This is a big game for both teams that neither can afford to lose, but the Braves should have the better starting pitcher and better bullpen.

Pick – ATL 1^st 5 and full game MLs

NYM @ MIL

The Mets were rained out of the last two games in Atlanta after dropping the opener 5-1 on Tuesday.  They will make up those two games on Monday if necessary.  The Mets are currently tied with the Diamondbacks for the final two NL wild card spots, 1 game ahead of the Braves.  The Brewers have already clinched the NL Central but appear unlikely to catch the PHILs or the Dodgers for a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Offensively, these two teams are almost identical with the Brewers averaging just 0.02 more runs per game than the Mets, but the Mets having an 0.05 better wOBA and 6-point better wRC+/  As for the two bullpens, The Brewers have a statistically significantly better unit that the Mets with a 10-point better WHIP and a. 19 better ERA.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers.  Sean Manaea has had himself a fine season.  He was originally scheduled to start Thursday's game in Atlanta.  Manaea has produced a fine 1.06 WHIP and 3.29 ERA, with a 183/61 K/BB ratio over 178 innings in 31 starts this season.  Frankie Montas is coming off a shelling at the hands of the diamondbacks, giving up a whopping 8 runs (seven earned) on 6 hits and 2 walks over just 2.2 innings on Sunday.  The four runs were the most he had given up in a start since being acquired by the Brewers.  Montas has served up 5 HRs in his past two outings.  The 31-year-old now holds a 1.26 WHIP and 4.56 ERA, with a 64/22 K/BB ratio over 53.1 innings in 10 starts with the Brewers.

The Brewers aren’t playing for anything, so I question how motivated they will actually be.  By contrast this game is crucial to the Mets who have yet to secure a playoff spot.  The Mets Manaea is also a better starting pitcher than the Brewers Momtas.

Pick – NYM 1^st 5 ML in a side bet

BALT @ MINN

The O’s still need a win to officially clinch the top AL wild card spot, but the Twins are in even worse shape.  They still trail the Royals and Tigers by 3 games for the final AL wild card spot and can’t afford to lose any of heir last 3 games.  

The O’s are the better hitting team here, averaging 0.18 more runs per game than the Twins with a 6-point better wOBA and a 7-point better wRC+.  As for the two bullpens, neither has been all that reliable with both posting mediocre stats.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers and the Twins should have a clear edge there.  Cade Povich turned in another solid outing Saturday against the Tigers, giving up just 2 runs on 2 hits and 3 walks, while striking out 7. over five innings. as he continues his strong September. The rookie left-hander has posted a 0.95 WHIP and  3.27 ERA with 30 Ks and 7 walks in 22 innings this month. Opponents are hitting just .175 against Povich over that stretch. Pablo Lopez struggled with the long ball in his last start against the Cubs, giving up a pair of three-run HRs, matching his season-worst mark, giving up a whopping 7 earned runs, but it was the first time he had given up 2 or more HRs since June 18. Despite Sunday's poor outing, Lopez has still been excellent since the AS break, logging a 1.18 WHIP and 2.74 ERA, with a 69/15 K/BB ratio over 75.2 innings in those 12 starts.

This is close and both teams need this game, but over the course of the full season, Lopez has been the clearly better pitcher.  I‘m chalking up his last start to an aberration and expect him to bounce back with a strong pouting tonight.

Pick – MINN 1^st 5 ML in a series of parlays