For what it’s worth, after the Mets Braves game was postponed, I was left with just one live parlay yesterday, the Diamondbacks 1st 5 and full game Mls. The Dianondbacls won both and the parlay cashed.
I finished the day +2.34 units, leaving me +302.49 units for the season. That is an amazing turnround for someone who spent the first five month of the season struggling to get out of his own way. 2024 has been a truly strange season for me. Close to three weeks ago, I got very sick with Covid. I thought that I might actually die. I am much better now, maybe not 100% yet, but getting there.
The really strange thing is that after I was finally well enough to pick games again (I missed about a week) my handicapping results suddenly and inexplicably improved dramatically. I can’t explain it. I was too sick to do my usual detailed handicapping and I wasn’t doing anything differently, but I just started winning like crazy. It was just one of th being [layed ose weird coincidences and probably didn’t mean anything. I also think that almost six months into the 2024 MLB season, I had a better handle on who or what these teams really are.
With just a few days left in the regular season and a lot of meaningless games being played, there’s only one game that I’m willing to put money on. Here is my very small Thursday card with just two side bets.
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Sides
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SD 1st 5 ML
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108
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2
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SD ML
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-101
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2
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As mentioned above, while I am much better, but I’m still not completely recovered yet, so detailed breaks will have to wait for the playoffs. For the remainder of this week, I will again be very brief. Here are my thoughts on the one game that I am on.
SD @ LAD
The Dodgers beat the Padres 4-3 last night to even this series at one game apiece. They now lead the Padres by 3 games in the NL West with just 4 games left to play, while the Padres hold the top spot in the NL wild card race. This series obviously matters to both teams.
The Dodgers average almost a half a run more per game than the Padres, with a 11-point better wOBA and a 5-point better wRC+, but since the AS break the Padres bullpen has been better than the Dodgers pen. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Joe Musgrove has thrown 6 scoreless inning in three of his four outings in September. The 9 Ks he generated in his last start v the White Sox matched his season high for the third time, and it was also the 6th time in 18 starts that he didn’t walk a batter. Musgrove now carrries a 1.19 WHIP and 3.95 ERA with a 95/22 K/BB ratio over 93.1 innings. Walker Buehler took the loss against the Rockies on Saturday, giving up 4 runs on 5 hits and 1 walk over 5.1 innings, while striking out 9. He struggled early, giving up a leadoff double to open the game followed by a walk that led to an early 1-0 deficit. Buehler gave up 2 more runs in the 2nd, but managed to get through the 5th for the fourth consecutive start but not before giving up 4 or more runs for the 2nd time in his last three outings. Buehler now carries an ugly 5.06 ERA in 4 September starts, though his 9 Ks on Satruday marked a season high.
On paper, the Dodgers are probably the better team, but despite last night’s win, I’m not convinced. Their performance this season, while mostly solid, has beee just been too damned flaky for me. The Padres are also a very good team, but they needed a sweep and didn’t get it. The big difference to night is that the Padres have the clearly better starting pitcher based on their respective performances this season.
Pick – SD 1st 54 and full game MLs in a couple of side bets.