For what it’s worth, yesterday my streak of five straight winning days came to an abrupt end.
Of the two games (4 sides) that I used on my parlay card yesterday, the Phils won their 1st 5 and full game as expected, but the Diamondbacks lost both.
I finished the day -5.94 units, leaving me +276.68 units for the season. That, my friends is still an amazing turnround.
Sometimes I just can’t figure out this damned game. More than two weeks ago, I got very sick with Covid. I thought that I might actually die. Fortunately, today I am much better, not back to normal just yet, but I am getting there.
The funny thing is that when I was finally well enough to pick games again, my handicapping results inexplicably improved dramatically. Go figure. I didn’t have the time or inclination to do my usual detailed handicapping and I wasn’t doing anything differently. I suspect it was just one of those weird coincidences and didn’t mean anything, but I do think that almost six months into the 2024 MLB season, we now have a better handle on who or what these teams really are.
With less than a week left in the regular season, we have a full slate of games. Here is my Tuesday card.
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ML Parlays
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Team
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Team #2
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Odds
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Units
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|
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CLEV 1st 5 ML
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CLEV ML
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173
|
2
|
|
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CLEV 1st 5 ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
165
|
2
|
|
|
CLEV 1st 5 ML
|
DET ML
|
163
|
2
|
|
|
CLEV 1st 5 ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
175
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2
|
|
|
CLEV 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
173
|
2
|
|
|
CLEV 1st 5 ML
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
144
|
2
|
|
|
CLEV 1st 5 ML
|
MINN ML
|
149
|
|
|
|
CLEV ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
154
|
2
|
|
|
CLEV ML
|
DET ML
|
152
|
2
|
|
|
CLEV ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
142
|
2
|
|
|
CLEV ML
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KC ML
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161
|
2
|
|
|
CLEV ML
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
133
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2
|
|
|
CLEV ML
|
MINN ML
|
130
|
2
|
|
|
CLEV ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
156
|
2
|
|
|
CLEV ML
|
DET ML
|
162
|
2
|
|
|
CLEV ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
156
|
2
|
|
|
CLEV ML
|
KC ML
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161
|
2
|
|
|
CLEV ML
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
133
|
2
|
|
|
CLEV ML
|
MINN ML
|
130
|
2
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
DET ML
|
144
|
2
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
146
|
2
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
154
|
2
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
126
|
2
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
MINN ML
|
124
|
2
|
|
|
DET ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
144
|
2
|
|
|
DET ML
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KC ML
|
1522
|
2
|
|
|
DET ML
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
125
|
2
|
|
|
DET ML
|
MINN ML
|
122
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
154
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
126
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
MINN ML
|
124
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
133
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
MINN ML
|
130
|
2
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
MINN ML
|
105
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Sides
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TEX 1st 5 ML
|
|
-125
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2
|
|
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SD 1sr 5 ML
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|
100
|
2
|
|
|
SD ML
|
|
106
|
2
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Since I’m still not completely recovered from this damned Covid thing yet and since I still tire very easily, I will again be very brief in this final week of the regular season. Here are my thought on the early evening games. I’ll post my thoughts on the two late games later on.
CIN @ CLEV
The Reds are dead and looking to next season. The Guardians have already clinched the AL Central and should get the 2nd AL playoff bye in the AL Wild card round. These two teams are averaging exactly the same amount of runs per game with almost identical wOBAs, but the Guardians have the 10-point better wRC+. They also have one of the best bullpens in baseball. As for the two starting pitchers, Jakob Junis has posted a 1.14 ERA and an 18/1 K/BB ratio over 23.2 innings in his last five outings (four starts). Tanner Bibee notched his 3rd quality start over his past four starts, posting a 3.04 ERA over those 23.2 innings, with a 14/1 K/BB ratio over his last 12.2 innings.
This game doesn’t matter to either team. The Guardians are in and the Reds are out. The offenses are too damned closed to give an edge to either one, but the Guardians have the mich better pen and probably the better starting pitcher.
Pick – CLEV 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
TB @ DET
The Rays are dead and looking to next season, while the Tigers now hold the 3rd and final AL wild card spot, by hyst a game over the Twins.
The Tigers are not a good hitting team, but average almost a half a run more per game than the offensively challenged Rays do, with a slightly better wOBA, but an almost identical wRC+. The Tigers also have the slightly better of two decent bullpens. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that looks like a mismatch. Ryan Pepiot gave up just 1 run on 2 hits and no walks while striking out a career high 12 over 6 innings in a no-decision against the Red Sox. That outing comes after lasting just 2 inings in his previous start. He needed just 76 pitches to notch a quality start, but the Rays' offense could ony manage 1 run. Tarik Skubal has not allowed more than 3 runs in any of his last 8 starts. Over that span, Skubal has given up a total of 12 runs while posting a stellar 59/8 K/BB ratio over 48.2 innings and remains the favorites to win the AL Cy Young award with a 0.94 WHIP and 2.48 ERA, with an ouitstanding 221/34 K/BB ratio over 185 innings and 30 starts.
Pick – DET 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
KC @ WASH
The Royals, who have now lost 7 straight, are now tied with the Tigers for the 2nd AL wild card spot, while the Nats have been dead and buried for some time now.
The Royals average more than a half a run more per game than the Nats with a better wOBAand wRC+. Neither bullpen is very good. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Cole Ragans delivered his 20th quality start in his last outing against the Tigers, but the Royals City offense squandered multiple chances to give Ragans the lead before eventually losing in the 10th. Since the beginning of August, Ragans sports a 1.10 WHIP and 2.94 ERA, with a 64/23 K/BB ratio over 52 innings as the Royals try to earn their first trip to the playoffs since 2015. Mitchell Parker has now pitched to a mediocre 1.30 WHIP and 4.44 ERA, with a 128/41 K/BB ratio over 146 innings this season.
Pick – KC 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays