For what it’s worth, yesterday was yet another profitable day.  That’s five straight winning days and seven of the last nine.  It’s been a great run, but I’m not dumb enough to believe that it will last forever or even until the end of the regular season.  It came close to crashing down on me yesterday, but I ecaped.

Of the 12 sides that I used on my parlay card yesterday, 7 won, the Braves 1^st 5, Cubs and Yankees 1^st 5 and full games MLs and the Padres and Dodgers full game MLs.  Three lost, the Dodgers 1^st 5 ML, and the Astros and Phils full game MLs, and 2 pushed the Dodgers amd Phils 1^st 5 MLs.  I also bet five sides and three of them, the  Pirates, Diamondbacks and Mariners 1^st 5 ML    of them, the Nats, Rays and Diamondbacks 1^st 5 MLs all won, while the Twins 1^st 5 ML and Diamondbacks full game ML both lost.        

I finished the day +13.58 units, leaving me +282.62 units for the season.  That, my friends is an amazing turnround.

Sometimes I just can’t figure out this damned game.  More than  two weeks ago, I got very sick with Covid.  I thought that I might actually die.  Fortunately, today I am much better, not back to normal just yet, but I am getting there.

The funny thing is that when I was finally well enough to pick games again, my handicapping results inexplicably improved dramatically.  Go figure.  I didn’t have the time or inclination to do my usual detailed handicapping and I wasn’t doing anything differently.  I suspect it was just one of those weird coincidences and didn’t mean anything.  I really think that almost six months into the 2024 MLB season, we just have a better handle on who or what these teams really are.

 With only a week left in the regular season, we have just four games today and I happen to like two of them.  Here is my Monday parlay card.

 Since I’m still not completely recovered from this damned Covid thing yet and still tire very easily, I will again be very brief this week.

CHI C @ PHIL

After an extensive rain delay, the Cubs beat the Nats 5-0 behind another stellar outing by Shota Imanage to take three of four from the Nats at Wrigley.  They now join the Nats after being officially eliminated from the playoff race.  The Phils lost 2-1 to the Mets last night at Citi Field, wastimg a great outing by Zacl Wheeler to drop three of the four games in the series.  Their lead in the NL East is now down to only five games over the Mets, but with only 6 games left to play, a five game lead looks pretty safe to me.  The Mets ae currently tied with the Diamondbacks for the 2^nd NL wild card spot, two games ahead of the Braves with just 6 left to play.        

The Phils are the better hitting team here, averaging almost a quarter of a run more per game that the Cubs with a better wOBA and wRC+, but both bullpens have been mediocre at best.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers and the Phils should have a clear edge there with Aaron Nola facing Nate Pearson.  Pearson will serve as the Cubs' opener in today;s game her for Monday's game against the Phils, He will be making his first MLB start since 2021, when he was with the Blue Jays. He made the full-time conversion to the bullpen in 2022 and hasn't thrown more than two innings in any appearance since being acquired by the Cubs in late July.  Pearson likely won't go more than an inning or two before giving way to the bullpen.Hayden Wesneski, who was activated from the 15-day IL on Friday, is a candidate to be used in bulk relief once Pearson is done for the day.  Aaron Nola is having another fine season.  The veteran right-hander is now carrying a solid 1.177 WHIP and 3.54 ERA, with a 183/48 K/BB ratio over 188.1 innings (31 starts).

The Phils are thew better team here.  That’s why they will be going to the playoffs, while the Cubs stay home.  Aaron Nola is also way better than Nate Peadson.  

Pick – PHIL 1^st 5 and full game MLs in a few parlays.

SF @ ARIZ

The Giants shut out the Royals 2-0 behind yet another stellar outing from Blake Snell, who gave up just two singles and a walk over six scoreless innings and didn’t allow a runner past 1^st.  In his last 14 starts, Snell is 5-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 114 Ksbut the Giants will again miss the playoffs this season.  The Diamondbacks blew a big lead and lost to the Brewers, but are still tied with the Mets for the 2^nd NL wild card spot, 2 games ahead of the Braves. The Diamondbacls are the much better hitting team here, averaging about a run and a quarter per game more than the Giants with a clearly better wOBA and wRC+.  However, while the full season bullpen stats give the Giants an edge, the Diamandbacks’ pen has been the better unit since the AS break.  That bring us to the two starting pitchers.  Hayden  Birdsong has struggled this season and fell just shy of his second quality start of 2024, getting pulled after giving up a single tyo open the 6^th. In his last three starts, Birdsong has posted an impressive 3.29 ERA with an 11/8 K/BB ratio over 13.2 innings.   The Eduardo Rodriguez successfully navigated the perils of Coors Field and posted a season high in Ks with 11.  It was his best  since he fanned 12 Phils almost exactly five years ago, on Sept. 14, 2019. Rodriguez picked up his first win since Aug. 20 along with his first quality start of the sason and the 6.1 innings he completed was also his longest outing of the season. Rodriguez didn't make his 2024 debut until Aug. 7 due to shoulder issues that cropped up in spring training, and while his 1.45 WHIP and 5.09 ERA, with a 36/14 K/BB ratio over  40.2 innings aren't particularly impressive, he could be rounding into form just in time to help the Dbacks lock up a playoff spot.

The Diamondbacks will probably be going back to the playoffs this season, while the Giants will be staying home.  While I don’t have a lot of confidence in Eduardo Rodrigues, I have none in Hayden Birdsong.

Pick – ARIZ 1^st 5 and full game MLs in a few parlays