MLB Best Bet: Red Sox vs. Rays (9/17/2024) – A Deep Dive into the Best Pick

On September 17, 2024, the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays are set for an intense matchup with major playoff implications. For sports bettors and fans alike, this game is packed with intrigue and potential. Analyst Griffin Warner provided his best bet for this game, recommending Shane Boz and the Tampa Bay Rays at even money (+100). This article will break down Warner’s key insights, focusing on the pitching matchup, team strengths, and player performances, providing an in-depth view of why Tampa Bay is the pick to make.

Pitching Showdown: Shane Boz vs. Nick Pavetta

Shane Boz (Tampa Bay Rays)

Griffin Warner leads with a strong recommendation to back Tampa Bay’s rising star, Shane Boz. "Go take Shane Boz, an even money underdog right now at home against Nick Pavetta" (00:00), Warner confidently states. Boz has quickly become a key player for the Rays, establishing himself as one of the most reliable arms in their rotation. His stats tell the story—Boz has posted a 2.78 ERA over his recent starts, demonstrating impressive control and consistency, especially at home.

One of the biggest reasons to back Boz is his ability to dominate right-handed hitters, a trait that plays well against Boston’s lineup. Furthermore, Boz’s strikeout-to-walk ratio and his effective use of off-speed pitches make him a challenging matchup for the Red Sox. In high-stakes games like this, teams often rely on their best pitchers, and Boz’s recent performances have given Tampa Bay a reason to believe he can shut down Boston’s powerful offense.

Nick Pavetta (Boston Red Sox)

On the other side, Warner casts doubt on Boston’s starting pitcher, Nick Pavetta. “This is a really tough spot for the Red Sox” (00:34), he notes, referencing Boston’s playoff pressure. Pavetta has been inconsistent throughout the season, particularly when pitching under high-stakes conditions. His 4.50 ERA in recent starts highlights his struggles to keep opposing teams off the board, especially in the early innings.

Warner’s analysis emphasizes the importance of the early-game performance, particularly for Pavetta. The Red Sox need Pavetta to get through the first few innings unscathed, but Warner sees this as a challenge. Pavetta has been known to give up early runs, something that a hot-hitting Tampa Bay lineup will be keen to exploit. Pavetta’s tendency to leave pitches over the plate has led to a spike in home runs allowed, and with Tampa Bay’s strong hitters, this could quickly become an issue.

Bullpen Advantage: Tampa’s Late-Game Strength

Another crucial factor in this matchup is the strength of Tampa Bay’s bullpen. Warner confidently states, “if they’re not ahead early, I will love to have their bullpen at an even money price for the second half” (00:22). The Rays’ bullpen has been a top-5 unit this season, boasting a 3.22 ERA, and has consistently shut down opposing offenses late in games.

Tampa’s depth in the bullpen allows them to handle close games with confidence. Whether it’s holding onto a slim lead or keeping the game within reach, the Rays’ relievers have proven their ability to manage high-pressure situations. With Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and others stepping up, Tampa Bay’s bullpen has been lights out, particularly in close, late-inning situations.

In contrast, Boston’s bullpen has struggled throughout the season. With a 4.05 ERA, the Red Sox relievers have shown cracks in key moments. Warner suggests that if the game is tied or close heading into the later innings, the advantage clearly tilts towards Tampa Bay, as their relievers are more reliable.

Offensive Power: Key Players to Watch

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay’s lineup has several players capable of turning the tide of the game. Leading the charge is Randy Arozarena, who has been the heart and soul of the Rays’ offense this season. Batting .288 with 23 home runs and 78 RBIs, Arozarena has a knack for delivering in clutch situations. His ability to get on base and create scoring opportunities will be pivotal against Pavetta.

Equally important is Wander Franco, the Rays’ dynamic shortstop. Franco’s return to the lineup has reinvigorated Tampa Bay’s offense, and his ability to stretch singles into extra-base hits could put significant pressure on Boston’s defense. Franco’s speed and on-base skills make him a constant threat on the base paths.

Boston Red Sox

Boston’s offense revolves around Rafael Devers, one of the league’s most feared hitters. With 29 home runs and a .282 batting average, Devers is capable of changing the game with one swing of the bat. However, Warner points out that Devers will face a tough task against Boz, whose pitching style has been particularly effective against left-handed power hitters.

Another key player for the Red Sox is Masataka Yoshida, who has been Boston’s most consistent hitter this season, batting .300. Yoshida’s patience at the plate and ability to hit to all fields make him a tough out. Yet, with Tampa Bay’s pitching strength, even Boston’s best hitters will have to be at their best.

Playoff Context: Pressure on Both Teams

The playoff race adds a layer of intensity to this matchup. Tampa Bay is firmly in the Wild Card hunt, and Warner emphasizes their ability to play spoiler to Boston’s playoff hopes. “The Rays are still in it... fighting for it” (00:30), he states, noting how the team thrives under late-season pressure.

Conversely, the Red Sox are feeling the weight of the playoffs looming. Boston’s offense, while potent, has been inconsistent, particularly against strong pitching. As Warner suggests, playoff pressure could crack Boston’s lineup, especially with Pavetta struggling in big moments.

Betting Insight: Tampa Bay Offers the Best Value

Warner’s bet of Tampa Bay at even money (+100) is based on several factors that favor the Rays. First, Boz’s recent form and the advantage of pitching at home give Tampa Bay an early edge. Second, the Rays’ bullpen has been one of the best in baseball, while Boston’s relievers have struggled. Finally, Tampa Bay’s offensive depth, led by Arozarena and Franco, is likely to capitalize on Pavetta’s weaknesses.

Taking Tampa Bay at even money offers tremendous value, as Warner notes, particularly if the game stays close into the later innings. The Rays’ ability to perform under pressure, combined with Boston’s vulnerabilities, make this the best bet for the day.

Conclusion

In the highly anticipated Red Sox vs. Rays matchup, Griffin Warner’s best bet is clear: Take Tampa Bay at even money (+100). With Shane Boz on the mound, backed by a dominant bullpen and a strong home-field advantage, Tampa Bay is poised to win. The Red Sox face mounting pressure, and their inconsistencies—especially with Nick Pavetta on the mound—give Tampa Bay the upper hand. As both teams fight for postseason positioning, expect Tampa to come out on top in this crucial game.

Summary

1. Shane Boz is the best bet due to his recent success and the Rays’ home-field advantage.
2. Nick Pavetta has struggled, especially under pressure, making him vulnerable early in the game.
3. Tampa Bay’s bullpen is a top-5 unit in the MLB, giving them a significant edge late in the game.
4. Boston’s bullpen has been inconsistent, with a 4.05 ERA.
5. Randy Arozarena and Wander Franco are key offensive players for Tampa Bay.
6. Rafael Devers and Masataka Yoshida will need to perform well for Boston to keep up.
7. Tampa Bay’s home record of 55-25 gives them a distinct advantage.
8. The Rays’ playoff positioning adds extra motivation.
9. Tampa’s bullpen depth will be crucial in high-leverage situations.
10. Betting on Tampa Bay at even money offers strong value given the pitching and bullpen dynamics.