Cardinals vs. Pirates (9/17/2024): Best Bet Breakdown

In today’s pivotal MLB matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates, there's a lot to consider from both a betting perspective and a statistical analysis. With Munaf Manji offering his insights, the focus of today’s analysis is on Lance Lynn’s stellar performance at home and Bailey Falter’s struggles on the road. This article takes a deep dive into the game, looking at key stats, player performances, and betting trends to determine why backing the Cardinals on the money line makes sense for bettors.

Why the Cardinals Are the Best Bet

Lance Lynn: The Cardinals' Ace at Home

Lance Lynn’s record when pitching at home is a key reason for favoring the Cardinals in this game. Despite coming off the injured list recently, Lynn has maintained excellent form, particularly in St. Louis. He’s already made 12 home starts this season, and the Cardinals have won 10 out of those 12 games both straight up and on the run line. These statistics highlight Lynn’s command on the mound and his ability to control games at Busch Stadium.

As Munaf Manji explains at (0:15):
"I know this is Lance Lynn’s third start since returning from the IL, but he's been really really good for them in St. Louis in his home starts."
Lynn’s consistent dominance makes him a reliable bet when pitching in his home ballpark. He has proven to be one of the more reliable pitchers for St. Louis this season, particularly when given the comfort of pitching in front of his home crowd.

Furthermore, Lynn’s ability to work deep into games and give his team a chance to win has been crucial. With a team like the Cardinals, who have had a challenging season, having a dependable pitcher like Lynn can make all the difference in a game where momentum is key.

Bailey Falter’s Struggles on the Road

The Pirates, on the other hand, have Bailey Falter starting on the mound. Falter’s road performances have left much to be desired, as he has consistently struggled to find success when pitching away from home. This season, Falter has made 12 road starts, and the Pirates have only won 4 of those 12 games. With a 4-8 straight-up record in games that Falter starts on the road, Pittsburgh faces a steep challenge against a team that thrives on home turf.

At (0:49), Munaf points out Falter's troubles:
"Twelve starts that Bailey Falter has made on the road this season for the Pirates, they're 4-8 straight up in those games. It has not been pretty for him."
Falter’s inability to perform on the road puts the Pirates at a distinct disadvantage in this matchup. His road ERA (earned run average) has been consistently higher than his home ERA, suggesting that he struggles with unfamiliar environments and pressure situations when pitching away from Pittsburgh.

Key Stats and Trends

The numbers back up why the Cardinals are the favored pick in this game. Not only do Lynn’s home stats shine, but the Cardinals also tend to perform well offensively when Lynn is pitching. In his 12 home starts this season, the Cardinals' offense has consistently provided run support, which has been critical in securing their 10-2 record in those games.

Meanwhile, Falter’s road woes have been compounded by the Pirates’ inconsistent offense when playing away from home. The Pirates' offense has struggled to find consistency in games that Falter starts on the road, often leaving him with little run support to work with. This is reflected in their 4-8 road record when Falter takes the mound, which demonstrates a team-wide issue, not just individual struggles from the pitcher.

Money Line Value

Backing the Cardinals on the money line is currently available at around minus 129 to minus 130, depending on the sportsbook. This presents good value given the disparity between Lynn and Falter’s performances. As Munaf highlighted at (0:55):
"I'll take the Cardinals on the money line here. Minus 129 is a number that I do see for this game."
Considering the statistical edge the Cardinals hold, especially with Lynn on the mound at home, this line represents strong value for bettors.

Cardinals’ Run Line Success

Beyond the money line, another option for bettors to consider is the run line. When Lynn pitches at home, the Cardinals have not only won the majority of games, but they have also covered the run line in many of them. The Cardinals’ 10-2 run line record in Lynn’s home starts adds another layer of confidence for those looking to increase potential payouts by betting on a larger margin of victory.

Breaking Down the Matchup: Cardinals vs. Pirates

Team Momentum and Motivation

The Cardinals come into this game with more motivation than the Pirates. Although St. Louis has had a challenging season, they are still fighting to maintain some positive momentum at the tail end of the year. Key home games, especially when Lynn is pitching, represent an opportunity for them to continue building confidence for next season.

The Pirates, on the other hand, have struggled on the road all season, particularly in games where Falter starts. Pittsburgh’s inconsistent offense and their pitcher’s struggles away from home leave them in a vulnerable position, which the Cardinals can exploit.

Pitcher Analysis: Head-to-Head

• Lance Lynn (STL): 12 home starts, 10-2 record straight up, 10-2 on the run line. He’s been a key factor in the Cardinals’ home success.

• Bailey Falter (PIT): 12 road starts, 4-8 record straight up. His road struggles have been a major problem for the Pirates this season.

These contrasting records highlight why Lynn holds such a strong edge over Falter in this particular matchup.

Conclusion

In this matchup between the Cardinals and Pirates, the best bet is clearly to back the Cardinals on the money line at around minus 129. Lance Lynn’s stellar performance at home, combined with Bailey Falter’s poor road record, creates a significant edge for St. Louis. Whether betting on the money line or taking a chance on the run line, the Cardinals offer great value in this game. Lynn’s 10-2 home record and Falter’s 4-8 road struggles make a strong case for bettors to place their money on the Cardinals to win.