For what it’s worth, I’m done ranting about Clay Holes and the crappy Yankee bullpen.  The Yanks will probably still make the playoffs, but I just don’t see them doing much there, not with this pen.

Yesterday was what I’ll call a shocking day. 

• The 32-109 White Sox snapped a 12-game losing streak, shelled Albert Suarez and blew out the Orioles 8-1?
• The Reds teed of on Spencer Arrighetti, putting up 9 1^st inning runs in a 12-5 blowout of the Astros?? Arrighetti had put up some fine numbers over the 2^nd half if the season, but every damned time that I back him, he gets shelled.
• After that devastating loss on Wednesday night, the Yankees were blown out by the Rangers 10-6 and it wasn’t even as close as that score suggests???
• The Angels jumped all over Bobby Miller for 5 1^st inning runs in a 10-1 blowout of the Dodgers, who ouldn’t hit Griffin Canning????    

I had two of those teams, the Orioles 1^st 5 and full game and the Dodgers full game on my parlay card.  I also had the the Astros 1^st 5 and full games as side bets.

Fortunately, the rest of my card did pretty well.  On my parlay card, the Braves, Cubs and Diamondbacks all won both their 1^st 5 and full games, and the Padres erased a 5-0 deficit to beat the Tiger 6-5.  I also cashed a side bet on the Phild full game.

I finished the day +7.52 units, leaving me +30.14 units for the season.

For the record we still have one MLB team that is playing .600 ball (barely) despite losing last night, and that’s the Dodgers\.    

We have a smaller slate of games today, so let’s get right to it.  Here’s my Thursday card.

ML Parlays		Team #2	Odds	Units
	HOU 1st 5 ML	HOU ML	185	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	MINN 1st 5 ML	189	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	MINN ML	196	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	185	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	SF 1st 5 ML	177	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	151	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	PHIL  ML	144	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	ATL 1st 5 ML	139	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	ATL ML	133	2
	HOU ML	MINN 1st 5 ML	189	2
	HOU ML	MINN ML	196	2
	HOU ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	185	2
	HOU ML	SF 1st 5 ML	177	2
	HOU ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	151	2
	HOU ML	PHIL  ML	144	2
	HOU ML	ATL 1st 5 ML	139	2
	HOU ML	ATL ML	133	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML	MINN ML	200	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	189	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML	SF 1st 5 ML	181	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	155	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML	PHIL  ML	147
	MINN 1st 5 ML	ATL 1st 5 ML	142	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML	ATL ML	136	2
	MINN ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	196	2
	MINN ML	SF 1st 5 ML	188	2
	MINN ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	160	2
	MINN ML	PHIL  ML	153	2
	MINN ML	ATL 1st 5 ML	148	2
	MINN ML	ATL ML	141	2
	SEA 1st 5 ML	SF 1st 5 ML	177	2
	SEA 1st 5 ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	151	2
	SEA 1st 5 ML	PHIL  ML	144	2
	SEA 1st 5 ML	ATL 1st 5 ML	139	2
	SEA 1st 5 ML	ATL ML	133	2
	SF 1st 5 ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	144	2
	SF 1st 5 ML	PHIL  ML	137	2
	SF 1st 5 ML	ATL 1st 5 ML	133	2
	SF 1st 5 ML	ATL ML	127	2
	PHIL 1st 5 ML	PHIL  ML	114	2
	PHIL 1st 5 ML	ATL 1st 5 ML	110	2
	PHIL 1st 5 ML	ATL ML	105	2
	PHIL  ML	ATL 1st 5 ML	104	2
	PHIL  ML	ATL ML	-101	2
	ATL 1st 5 ML	ATL ML	-105	2

Fall is here and the NFL regular season kicks off tonight with the Ravens visiting the Chiefs,  I have a small bet on the Chiefs laying 2.5, mostly because I got -2.5 in stead of 3.  Had it been 3.5, I would have bet the Ravens.  I think it’s that close. 

Let’s get back to baseball.  Here are my thoughts on today’s MLB games.

HOU @ CIN

As mentioned above, The Reds blew out the Astros 12-5 last night to take a 2-0 lead in this series.  The Astros now lead he Mariners by 5.5 games in the AL West, with just 23 games left to play.  The Reds, who have no shot at the playoffs this season, are still playing hard, but just playing out the string and looking to next season.

Starting Pitchers 

1:10

SP

GS+

GS-

WHIP

ERA

xERA

FIP

xFIP

SIERA

wOBA

xwOBA

K%

BB%

HOU

Brown - R (11-7)

(16/26)

(9/26)

1.29

3.55

3.33

3.69

3.57

3.82

0.301

0.285

25.2%

8.8%

SF

Lowder - R (0-1)

(1/1)

(0/1)

Edge – HOU

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV	BS	LOB%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	AVG	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	K%	Rk	BB%
HOU	25	23	35	22	76.4%	3	0.54	4	0.221	5	1.23	9	3.55	4	24.8%	7	9.7%
CIN	23	30	20	14	73.2%	8	0.35	8	0.235	17	1.24	11	3.94	14	24.2%	10	8.2%

Edge – HOU

Offenses

Team	RPG	Rk	AVG	Rk	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	HH%	Rk	K%	Rk
HOU	4.58	13	0.261	3	0.320	11	110	7	0.158	13	7.1%	27	-9.5	27	38.9%	13	19.4%	3
CIN	4.52	15	0.232	26	0.307	17	90	25	0.166	9	8.3%	12	13.9	1	36.5%	26	24.4%	23

Edge – HOU, but close

Conclusion:  The Astros should be better than the Reds.  Of course that should have been the case last night and look how that turned out.  The are the slightly better hitting team, but that’s close.  The Astros also have the statistically better bullpen.  That leaves the two starting pitchers, and the Astros should have a big edge there as well.  In his last start v the Royals, Hunter Brown posted his 3^rd straight quality start and it was also the 5^th straight outing in which he's given up 2 or fewer runs.  22-yer-old Rhett Lowder will get a second start after giving up 1 run on 2 hits and 4  walks over 4 innings while striking out 6 in his MLB debut this past Friday v the Brewers.

Despite what we saw last night, the Astros should be the better team here and Brown, who has been outstanding, particularly  over the second half of the season is certainly a more proven commodity than Rhett Lowder..  I say the Astros bounce back here

Pick – HOU 1^st 5 RL and full game ML in side bets

 

MINN @ TB

The Rays neat the Twins 9-4 last night to take a 2-1 lead in this seethe Twins now trail the Guardians by 4.5 games in the AL Central with 23 games left to play.  The Rays, who won’t catch the Orioles in the AL East, are still alive in the AL wild cad race, 6 games behind the Royals.

Starting Pitchers

1:10	SP	GS+	GS-	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
MINN	Lopez - R (13-8)	(16/27)	(11/27)	1.12	4.05	3.50	3.68	3.38	3.46	0.298	0.293	25.7%	5.2%
TB	Bradley - R (6-9)	(12/20)	(8/20)	1.22	4.35	4.26	4.20	3.73	3.77	0.307	0.321	26.4%	8.3%

Edge – MINN

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV	BS	LOB%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	AVG	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	K%	Rk	BB%	Rk
MINN	30	25	39	16	68.8%	25	0.52	18	0.227	11	1.23	9	4.00	17	24.4%	9	8.6%	12
TB	39	26	43	19	73.2%	8	0.51	13	0.223	8	1.21	8	3.82	12	22.9%	18	8.7%	14

Edge – None

Offenses

Team	RPG	Rk	AVG	Rk	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	HH%	Rk	K%	Rk
MINN	4.76	9	0.252	9	0.323	7	111	5	0.173	6	7.8%	19	-7.4	22	38.3%	18	21.2%	10
TB	3.90	28	0.230	27	0.297	25	96	21	0.139	25	8.6%	7	7.8	6	36.8%	24	24.6%	25

Edge – MINN

Conclusion”

Pick – MINN 1^st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays

 

SEA @ OAK

The Mariners surprisingly drilled the A’s 16-3 last night after dropping the first two games of this series.  They now trail the Astros by 5.5 gams in the AL West with 22 games remaining, and are also 5.5 games behind the Royals in the AL wild card race. The A’s, while much improved, aren’t in playoff contention this season, but will be soon.

Starting Pitchers

3:37	SP	GS+	GS-	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
SEA	Woo - R (6-2)	(13/17)	(4/17)	0.81	2.30	2.45	3.30	3.90	3.91	0.229	0.246	19.8%	2.5%
OAK	Estes - R (6-6)	(12/19_	(6/19)	1.11	4.29	4.01	4.42	5.08	4.85	0.309	0.312	18.9%	5.2%

Edge – SEA

Bullpens

N/A – this is a 1^st 5 bet only

Offenses

Team	RPG	Rk	AVG	Rk	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	HH%	Rk	K%	Rk
SEA	4.04	26	0.216	30	0.296	27	97	19	0.148	22	9.4%	4	1.6	14	40.1%	7	27.5%	30
OAK	4.08	25	0.234	24	0.307	17	103	12	0.166	9	8.5%	8	-8.5	24	39.2%	12	24.5%	24

Edge – None

Conclusion:  I actually think that these two teams are pretty damned close.  Offensively, they both stink, the A’s might hit a little better, but certainly not enough to warrant a bet.  This is all about the two starting pitchers and the Mariners appear to have that edge today.  Joey Estes has pitched well for the A’s this season.  The 22-year-old right-hander just posted his 7^th quality start of the season at the Rangers.  Estes has given up 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts, a stretch good for  a 0.90 WHIP and 2.88 ERA with a 39/9 K/BB ratio over 50 innings.  However, his ERA and ERA metrics are all still mediocre.  In his last outing, the Angels snapped Bryan Woo’s streak of five straight quality starts and his 3 Ks marked his lowest total since July 27 against the White Sox. Even with that lackluster performance, Woo still finished the month of August with a fine 2.23 ERA along with an outstanding 34/3 K/BB ratio.  His stat profile is better than stes’, particular when you look at the ERA and ERA metrics numbers.

I doubt that the Mariners will put up 16 runs again today, maybe not again this season, but I do think that Woo has been better than Estes, so I’m backing ho, for five innings.    

 Pick – SEA 1^st 5 ML in a series of parlays

 

ARIZ @ SF

The Diamondbacks beat the Giants 6-4 last night to take a 2-0 series lead.  They now trail the Dodgers by 5 games on the NL West, but currently hold the 2^nd NL wild card spot.  The Giants are still mathematically alive in the NL wild card race, but barely, now 8.5 games behind the Braves, but any teams that loses two straight to the Marlins, like the Giants did over the weekend, probably doesn’t deserve to male the playoffs anyway. 

Starting Pitchers 

3:45	SP	GS+	GS-	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
ARIZ	Kelly - R (4-0)	(5/8)	(3/8)	1.28	4.30	6.06	5.27	4.51	4.71	0.342	0.374	17.4%	7.4%
SF	Snell - L (2-3)	(9/16)	(7/16)	1.08	3.56	2.73	2.76	3.27	3.38	0.257	0.260	32.9%	10.7%

Edge – SF

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV	BS	LOB%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	AVG	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	K%	Rk	BB%	Rk
ARIZ	32	26	35	22	72.6%	10	0.49	14	0.247	23	1.34	24	4.05	20	20.6%	28	8.9%	17
SF	34	27	29	17	71.5%	17	0.46	18	0.248	24	1.31	21	4.08	21	23.9%	13	8.2%	7

Edge – None

Offenses

Team	RPG	Rk	AVG	Rk	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	HH%	Rk	K%	Rk
ARIZ	5.45	1	0.262	2	0.334	2	113	4	0.174	5	8.9%	5	10.7	5	38.9%	13	19.9%	5
SF	4.27	17	0.240	19	0.305	21	97	19	0.152	21	8.4%	11	0.0	16	38.7%	15	23.4%	20

Edge – ARIZ big

Conclusion:  The Diamondbacks have one big edge in this one.  They are the much better hitting team here.  The Dbacks lead the league in runs per game and rank 2^nd in BA and wOBA, and 4^th in wRC+.  The Giants , on the other hand, possess an offense that ranks a little lower than league average.  Neither bullpen is very good, so I see no edge there.  That leaves the two starting pitchers and that’s where the Giants should have a big edge today.    Merrill Kelly struggled again in his last start v the Dodgers, giving up 6 runs (4 earned) on 10 hits and 1 walk while striking out1 over 5.1 innings.  The right-hander hasn't been very good since he returned from a four-month absence with a shoulder injury, giving up 18 runs (16 earned), including 6 HRs, over 21.1 innings since returning on Aug. 11. By contrast, Blake Snell has been nearly untouchable since the start of July.  The southpaw has now delivered a quality start in 8 of his last 9 outings.  My only concern is Smell’s lapses in command.  His last start was just the third time in that span that he's limited opponents to just one walk or fewer.

The Diamondback are the better team and that offense of there is scary good, but for five innings, give me Snell over Kelly.

Pick – SF 1^st 5 ML in a series of parlays.

 

PHIL @ MIA

The Phils beat the Blue Jays 6-4 yesterday to take that series 2-0.   They now lead the Braves by 7 games in the NL East with just 23 left to play.  The Marlins, who beat the Nats 4-3 last night,.  unloaded everything they could at the trade deadline and have been playng the second half of the season with a linup better suited to AAA than the majors.  They play hard, but they just don’t have the talent.

Starting Pitchers  

6:40

SP

GS+

GS-

WHIP

ERA

xERA

FIP

xFIP

SIERA

wOBA

xwOBA

K%

BB%

PHIL

Suarez - L (11-6)

(18/22)

(3/22)

1.08

3.02

3.21

3.09

3.08

3.38

0.276

0.281

24.7%

5.6%

MIA

Oller - R (1-1)

(2/3)

(1/3)

 Edge – PHIL

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV	BS	LOB%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	AVG	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	K%	Rk	BB%	Rk
PHIL	25	21	33	18	72.0%	15	0.59	14	0.233	16	1.25	14	3.96	15	25.9%	2	8.4%	10
MIA	32	30	27	26	67.8%	27	0.39	21	0.235	17	1.27	17	4.10	22	23.9%	13	8.7%	14

Edge – PHIL

Offenses

Team	RPG	Rk	AVG	Rk	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	HH%	Rk	K%	Rk
PHIL	4.84	6	0.257	4	0.323	7	107	9	0.164	12	8.5%	8	11.4	4	39.7%	10	21.9%	14
MIA	3.78	29	0.241	16	0.292	29	84	28	0.133	28	6.5%	30	-1.3	18	36.7%	25	22.9%	17

Edge – PHIL

Conclusion:  The Phils are l way better than the Marlins.  They sre the much better hitting team and while I still don’t completely trust the Phils’ pen, it is statistically better than the Marlins’ pen.  That leaves the two starting pitchers and that seeme pretty clear as well.  Ranger Suarez has pitched well for the Phils for most of the season and that’s reflected in his fine stat profile, but he's just 1-5 in his last 7 starts with an ugly 6.25 ERA.  Adam Oller has pitched surprisingly well in two of his three MLB starts for the Marlins, giving up 6 runs on 9 hits and 8 walk over 16.1 innings with 16 Ks.  The walks are obvious a concern and tell me that Oller’s been lucky to have only given up 6 runs.

The Phils are better than the Marlins, a lot better.  That why this game is lined so damned high.  Despire his recent swoon, Suarez should also be a lot better than Oller.       

Pick – PHIL 1^st 5 and full game ML in a series of parlays

 

COL @ ATL

The Braves beat the Rockies 5-2 last night to take a 2-0 series lead.  They still trail the Phils by 7 games in the NL East, but are still hanging on to the 3^rd and final NL wild card spot, just a half a game ahead of the Mets.  The can’t afford a let down. 

Starting Pitchers

7:20	SP	GS+	GS -	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
COL	Gomber - L (4-10)	(11/26)	(15/26)	1.30	4.69	5.22	4.97	4.51	4.64	0.338	0.371	16.9%	6.0%
ATL	Lopez - R (8-4	(17/22)	(4/22)	1.17	2.00	4.15	3.04	3.71	3.90	0.277	0.317	25.4%	8.5%

Edge – ATL

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV	BS	LOB%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	AVG	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	K%	Rk	BB%	Rk
COL	28	25	31	24	66.3%	29	0.47	30	0.281	30	1.56	30	5.53	30	18.8%	30	9.9%	24
ATL	28	24	36	17	75.7%	4	0.49	3	0.232	15	1.19	7	3.31	3	25.5%	5	7.5%	2

Edge – ATL, big

Offenses

Team	RPG	Rk	AVG	Rk	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	HH%	Rk	K%	Rk
COL	4.24	19	0.245	14	0.307	17	83	29	0.156	15	7.5%	25	-7.9	23	39.4%	11	26.1%	29
ATL	4.29	16	0.241	16	0.312	13	98	17	0.172	7	7.8%	19	-8.5	25	42.4%	2	21.7%	12

Edge - ATL

Conclusion:  Before we get started, lets get one thing straight.  The Rockies, who are an almost decent 32-37 when playing at Coors, are an atrocious 19-52 when playing away from Coors.  The Braves, who have too often struggled to score runs this season, are still the much better hitting team here.  While the Rockies average a lusty 5.01 runs per game at Coors, that number drops to a lousy 3.52 when on the road.  Only the Marlins and White Sox average less.  The Braves has a decent bullpen, while the Rockies pen is garbage.  That brings is to the two starting pitchers and that also looks like a mismatch.  Austin Gomber’s stat profile isn’t very good and neither is he. With the sole exception of a higher walk rate, Reynaldo Lopez’s stat profile is across the board better than Gomber’s.

 

I’m again fading the Rockies away from Coors and facing a much better team and pitcher

Pick – ATL 1^st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays