For what it’s worth, yesterday was my day to get back at the universe for dumping all over me on Sunday. After three straight good days, I got my ass kicked on Sunday, losing 80.86 units. However, yesterday I was the one doing the ass kicking. Almost everything that could have gone right did. The Brewers, Oriolkes, Dodgers, Padres and Yankees all won both their 1st 5 and full games. Only the Astros failed me and that’s what I get for backing a 40-year-old pitcher.
I finished the day +80.29 units. That now leaves me +8.02 units for the 2024 season. I’ll be the first to admit that’s not great, but compared to where I was just a few days ago, I’ll damned sure take it. Over these past couple of days, it seems that I have become the poster child for volatility. Maybe today I can actually hang on to a profit for longer than 24 hours.
For the record, we still have just one MLB team that is playing .600 ball, and that’s the Dodgers, who seem to be playing their best ball of the season\.
We have a full slate of games today, but not all that many that I like, so let’s get right to it. Here is my Tuesday card.
|
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
-129
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
ATL ML
|
-134
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
130
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
NYY ML
|
134
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
LAD ML
|
113
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
128
|
2
|
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
-140
|
2
|
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
126
|
2
|
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
NYY ML
|
130
|
2
|
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
110
|
2
|
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
124
|
2
|
|
|
ATL ML
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
122
|
2
|
|
|
ATL ML
|
NYY ML
|
126
|
2
|
|
|
ATL ML
|
LAD ML
|
106
|
2
|
|
|
ATL ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
120
|
2
|
|
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
NYY ML
|
198
|
2
|
|
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
172
|
2
|
|
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
191
|
2
|
|
|
NYY ML
|
LAD ML
|
176
|
2
|
|
|
NYY ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
195
|
2
|
|
|
LAD ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
169
|
2
|
It’s the day after Labor Day and things are back to normal. Fall is here and the NFL regular season is just two days away. Here are my thoughts on today’s MLB games.
CHI WS @ BALT
To no one’s surprise, the Orioles ripped the White Sox a new one in a 13-3 beatdown yesterday. The Orioles now trail the Yankees by a mere half a game in the hotly contested AL East. The 108-loss White Sox, at the other end of the spectrum, are the worst team in baseball, 20.5 games behind the Rockies, the 2nd worst team.
Starting Pitchers
|
6:35
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
CHI WS
|
Nastrini - R (0-6)
|
(2/7)
|
(5/7)
|
1.73
|
7.04
|
6.58
|
7.35
|
6.86
|
6.69
|
0.364
|
0.387
|
15.3%
|
18.1%
|
|
BALT
|
Povich - L (1-7_
|
(3/11)
|
(8/11)
|
1.73
|
6.58
|
4.44
|
5.67
|
5.85
|
5.53
|
0.381
|
0.327
|
15.1%
|
10.6%
|
Edge – BALT, but only by default
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
CHI WS
|
11
|
44
|
18
|
30
|
68.7%
|
26
|
0.47
|
29
|
0.258
|
29
|
1.53
|
29
|
4.97
|
29
|
22.8%
|
20
|
11.4%
|
30
|
|
BALT
|
26
|
20
|
42
|
19
|
69.1%
|
24
|
0.41
|
14
|
0.218
|
4
|
1.18
|
3
|
4.01
|
18
|
24.2%
|
10
|
8.8%
|
16
|
Edge – BALT, big
Offenses
|
CHI WS
|
3.04
|
30
|
0.219
|
29
|
0.271
|
30
|
73
|
30
|
0.120
|
30
|
6.8%
|
29
|
-6.4
|
20
|
35.3%
|
29
|
24.1%
|
22
|
|
BALT
|
5.01
|
4
|
0.251
|
10
|
0.326
|
4
|
115
|
2
|
0.191
|
1
|
7.8%
|
19
|
1.2
|
15
|
42.6%
|
1
|
22.3%
|
15
|
Edge – BALT, huge
Conclusion: The O’s are much better than the White Sox. He the entire league is much better than the White Sox. Yet this game scares the hell out of me. The White Sox won’t lose every game they have left, will they? My problem is with the O’s starting pitcher, Cade Povich. He’s been awful. One glance a his stat profile establishes just how awful he’s been. I can’t and won’t be a 1st 5 on this clown. That said, now look at the White Sox’s starting pitcher, Nick Nastrini. He’s been awful too, even worse than Povich.
The O’s are only of the best hitting teams in the league, while the White Sox are the worst. The O’s don’t have a good bullpen, but the White Sox have one of, if not the worst bullpen in baseball.
Pick – BALT full game ML in a series of parlays
COL @ ATL
The Rockies had yesterday off and hit the road travelling to Atlanta, after dropping two of three to the visiting Orioles at Coors over the weekend. The Braves also had yesterday off, after dropping three of four to the Phils over the weekend. They now trail the Phils by 7 games in the NL East, but are still hanging on to the 3rd and final NL wild card spot, just a half a game ahead of the Mets.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:20
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
COL
|
Freeland - L (4-6)
|
(8/16)
|
(8/16)
|
1.47
|
5.51
|
4.95
|
4.62
|
4.29
|
4.47
|
0.356
|
0.343
|
17.1%
|
6.9%
|
|
ATL
|
Sale - L (15-3)
|
(22/25)
|
(2/25)
|
1.02
|
2.58
|
2.71
|
2.07
|
2.55
|
2.77
|
0.260
|
0.259
|
32.4%
|
5.6%
|
Edge – ATL, huge
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
COL
|
28
|
25
|
31
|
24
|
66.3%
|
29
|
0.47
|
30
|
0.281
|
30
|
1.56
|
30
|
5.53
|
30
|
18.8%
|
30
|
9.9%
|
24
|
|
ATL
|
28
|
24
|
34
|
17
|
75.7%
|
4
|
0.49
|
3
|
0.232
|
15
|
1.19
|
7
|
3.31
|
3
|
25.5%
|
5
|
7.5%
|
2
|
Edge – ATL, big
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
COL
|
4.28
|
17
|
0.245
|
14
|
0.307
|
17
|
83
|
29
|
0.156
|
15
|
7.5%
|
25
|
-7.9
|
23
|
39.4%
|
11
|
26.1%
|
29
|
|
ATL
|
4.30
|
16
|
0.241
|
16
|
0.312
|
13
|
98
|
17
|
0.172
|
7
|
7.8%
|
19
|
-8.5
|
25
|
42.4%
|
2
|
21.7%
|
12
|
Edge - ATL
Conclusion: Before we get started, lets get one thing straight. The Rockies, who are an almost decent 32-37 when playing a Coors, are an atrocious 19-50 when playing away from Coors. The Braves have too often struggled to score runs this season, are still the much better hitting team here. While the Rockies average a lusty 5.01 runs per game at Coors, that number drops to a lousy 3.59 when on the road. Only the Marlins and White Sox average less. The Braves has a decent bullpen, while the Rockies pen is garbage. That brings is to the two starting pitchers and that’s the biggest mismatch of all. Chris Sale is having himself one hell of a great season and is probably the favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award this season. Kyle Freeland isn’t very good. Truth be told he sucks. That’s why our good firnd Top Gun has nick-named him “Free Money Freeland”. Betting against Freeland is usually free money.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 and full game MLSs in a series of parlays
PITT @ CHI C
The Pirates beat the Cubs 5-3 yesterday in the first game of this series. Although they have no shot at the playoffs, the Pirates are still playing hard. The Cubs won’t catch the Brewers in the NL Central, but they are still in the NL wild race, just 3.5 games behind the Braves.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:40
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
PITT
|
Skenes - R (8-2)
|
(16/18)
|
(2/18)
|
0.95
|
2.23
|
2.67
|
2.73
|
2.69
|
2.83
|
0.255
|
0.257
|
32.3%
|
6.2%
|
|
CHI C
|
Hendricks - R (3-10)
|
(5/19)
|
(13/19)
|
1.53
|
6.75
|
5.22
|
5.39
|
4.56
|
4.77
|
0.362
|
0.351
|
15.2%
|
7.1%
|
Edge – PITT, big
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
PITT
|
4.21
|
20
|
0.236
|
23
|
0.296
|
27
|
86
|
27
|
0.137
|
27
|
7.9%
|
17
|
4.7
|
11
|
40.1%
|
7
|
24.7%
|
26
|
|
CHI C
|
4.56
|
13
|
0.240
|
19
|
0.310
|
14
|
100
|
14
|
0.154
|
17
|
8.9%
|
5
|
11.8
|
3
|
37.9%
|
20
|
22.6%
|
16
|
Edge – CHI C
Conclusion: This is all about the two starting pitchers. Paul Skenes is having himself a tremendous rookie season. If he stay healthy, Skene will be elite for a long time. Hell, he’s elite right now and he’s only 22. Take a good look at his stat profile, it’s outstanding! On the other side, we have Kyle Hendricks and he;s been pretty bad. I can remember back several seasons ago when Hendricks was one of the best “finesse” pitchers in the league. He's far from that today. This should be a starting pitcher mismatch.
Pick – PITT 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
NYY @ TEX
The Yankees beat the Rangers 8-4 last night in the first game of this series. They still lead the hotly contested AL East by a half a game over the Orioles. The Rangers, on the other hand, after winning it all last season, have fallen on hard times and very likely won’t even make the playoffs this season.
Starting Pitchers
|
8:05
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
NYY
|
Rodon - L (14-9)
|
(15/27)
|
(11/27
|
1.25
|
4.31
|
4.18
|
4.34
|
4.20
|
3.86
|
0.325
|
0.318
|
25.9%
|
7.6%
|
|
TEX
|
Heaney - L (4-13)
|
(12/26
|
(14/26
|
1.24
|
3.95
|
4.21
|
3.94
|
4.25
|
4.02
|
0.305
|
0.309
|
23.0%
|
6.4%
|
Edge – NYY, but very closes
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
NYY
|
22
|
18
|
37
|
18
|
71.8%
|
16
|
0.47
|
14
|
0.227
|
11
|
1.26
|
16
|
3.72
|
8
|
22.7%
|
21
|
9.1%
|
19
|
|
TEX
|
30
|
19
|
30
|
17
|
74.1%
|
6
|
0.58
|
21
|
0.236
|
19
|
1.36
|
26
|
4.32
|
24
|
24.0%
|
12
|
10.7%
|
27
|
Edge – NYY
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
NYY
|
5.10
|
2
|
0.251
|
10
|
0.335
|
1
|
118
|
1
|
0.189
|
2
|
10.6%
|
1
|
-15.1
|
30
|
42.1%
|
3
|
24.7%
|
26
|
|
TEX
|
4.14
|
24
|
0.238
|
22
|
0.299
|
23
|
93
|
22
|
0.139
|
25
|
8.1%
|
14
|
-7.0
|
21
|
38.7%
|
15
|
21.0%
|
9
|
Edge – NYY big
Conclusion: The Yanks are obviously better than the Rangers. The Ranger’s big problem this season has been their offense, or lack of it. After being one of the better hitting teams in the league last season, they just haven’t hit this season. the Yanks, on the other hand, are one of the best hitting teams in the league, but this season it’s been all or nothing. They either hit a ton or not at all and that has frustrated the hell out of me. They have been so damned inconsistent. The Yanks have also struggled with lefties, posting a 24th ranked ,233 BA, a 12th ranked .317 wOBA and a 13th ranked 106 wOBA. I don’t like or think much of the Yanks’ bullpen either. Statistically, it is better than the Rangers’ pen, but that’s not saying much. That leaves the two starting pitchers. Lefty Carlos Rodon has been incredibly inconsistent. He’s posted some really great outings, but he’s also posted to many clunkers and you ever kow which Rodon you’ll get on any given day. Amdre Heaney hasn’t been sny better and his stat profile is pretty similar to Rodon’s, and he;s a lefty.
I don’t know which Rodon we’ll get tonight so the 1st 5 is a pass, but the Yanks are the beter team and should win this game.
Pick – NYY ML in a series of parlays
LAD @ LAA
The Dodgers beat the Diamondbacks 11-6 yesterday to take three of four in their series in the desert. They now lead the Padres by 5 games in the NL West. The Angels had yesterday off, after taking two of three from the visiting Mariners.
Starting Pitchers
|
9:38
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
LAD
|
Buehler - R (1-4)
|
(1/11)
|
(10/11)
|
1.63
|
5.88
|
5.15
|
5.85
|
4.79
|
4.76
|
0.383
|
0.349
|
17.0%
|
7.8%
|
|
LAA
|
Detmers - L (3-6)
|
(5/12)
|
(7/12)
|
1.48
|
6.14
|
3.74
|
4.40
|
4.15
|
4.07
|
0.346
|
0.302
|
25.3%
|
9.7%
|
Edge – Who the hell knows!
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
LAA
|
27
|
17
|
33
|
15
|
71.4%
|
18
|
0.45
|
18
|
0.213
|
2
|
1.24
|
11
|
4.04
|
19
|
22.3%
|
22
|
10.8%
|
28
|
|
LAD
|
36
|
22
|
45
|
25
|
74.3%
|
5
|
0.51
|
5
|
0.221
|
5
|
1.18
|
3
|
3.56
|
5
|
23.2%
|
16
|
8.6%
|
12
|
Edge – LAD
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
LAD
|
5.03
|
3
|
0.253
|
7
|
0.331
|
3
|
114
|
3
|
0.184
|
3
|
9.5%
|
3
|
6.5
|
8
|
40.9%
|
5
|
25.1%
|
28
|
|
LAA
|
3.91
|
27
|
0.230
|
27
|
0.297
|
25
|
89
|
26
|
0.142
|
24
|
8.0%
|
15
|
-12.4
|
29
|
37.0%
|
23
|
23.2%
|
19
|
Edge – LAD, big
The Dodgers are a lot better than the Angels. They hit better and they have the better bullpen. However, Walker Buehler has struggled since his return from Tommy John Surgery and his stat profile is awful. Reid Detmers has been recalled from AAA Salt Lake on Sunday. The left-hander will make his first start for the Angels since early June after he was banished to the minors following a string of poor starts. He had mostly struggled over his first two months at Salt Lake, but settled into a groove over his final three starts. I don’t trust either of these guys so the 1st 5 is a pass, bu, the Dodgers should win this one with their bats.
Pick – LADF ML in a series of parlays
SEA @ OAK
The A’s beat the Mariners 5-4 last night in the first game of this series. The A’s ae well out of playoff contention and looking to next season, while the Mariners now trail the Astros by 6 games in the AL West and are also 4-5 games behind the Royals in the AL wild card race.
Starting Pitchers
|
9:40
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
SEA
|
Castillo - (11-12)
|
(17/28)
|
(7/28)
|
1.17
|
3.65
|
3.93
|
3.87
|
3.79
|
3.78
|
0.305
|
0.309
|
24.6%
|
6.6%
|
|
OAK
|
Ginn - R (0-0)
|
(0/1)
|
(1/1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – SEA
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
SEA
|
3.97
|
26
|
0.216
|
30
|
0.296
|
27
|
97
|
19
|
0.148
|
22
|
9.4%
|
4
|
1.6
|
14
|
40.1%
|
7
|
27.5%
|
30
|
|
OAK
|
4.09
|
25
|
0.234
|
24
|
0.307
|
17
|
103
|
12
|
0.166
|
9
|
8.5%
|
8
|
-8.5
|
24
|
39.2%
|
12
|
24.5%
|
24
|
Edge – OAK, but close
Conclusion: Offensively both of these teams stink. Niether can be trusted to score runs, but statistically the A’s hit better than the Mariners. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. J.T. Ginn will get a 2nd start for the A’s after giving up 4 runs on 4 hits and 1 walk while striking out 4 over 5 innings in his first MLB start this past Thursday in Cincinnati. Luis Castillo is having another solid season with a good stat profile.
I have no idea what w’ll get from Ginn. I know what to expect from Castillo and just hope the Mariners can muster a few runs off Ginn.
Pick – SEA 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays