For What It's Worth: September 1 Card - Baseball - Forums

Posted: 09/01/2024 10:17 AM

For what it’s worth, for the first time is the last 3 days I lost a side on my parlay card. The Mariners, who led 4-1 after 5 innings last night, ended up blowing it and losing 5-4. It was my only loss of the day.

I won 4 of the of the 5 sides on my parlay card, the Tigers, Phils and Mariners 1^st 5s and the Mets full game. I also won both of my side bets on the Cubs full game and the Blue Jays 1^st 5. I picked up 11.47 units. Over the last couple of days, I’ve picked up 148.34 units. That now leaves me a whopping +8.59 units for the 2024 season. It’s not much, but considering where I was just 3 days ago, I’ll damned sue take it.

Today, on the first day of September, we still have just one MLB team that is playing .600 ball, and that’s the Dodgers.

We have a full slate of games today, so let’s get right to it as I try to stay profitable. Here is my very large Sunday card.

ML Parlays	Team #1	Team #2	Odds	Units

	NYY 1st 5 ML	NYY ML	118	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	HOU ML	140	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	NYM ML	136	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	MINN 1st 5 ML	135	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	MINN ML	131	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	BALT 1st 5 ML	136	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	BALT ML	138	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	SF 1st 5 ML	103	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	SF ML	107	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	134	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	SEA ML	134	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	147	2
	NYY ML	HOU 1st 5 ML	145	2
	NYY ML	NYM ML	141	2
	NYY ML	MINN 1st 5 ML	139	2
	NYY ML	MINN ML	136	2
	NYY ML	BALT 1st 5 ML	139	2
	NYY ML	BALT ML	132	2
	NYY ML	SF 1st 5 ML	107	2
	NYY ML	SF ML	110	2
	NYY ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	138	2
	NYY ML	SEA ML	239	2
	NYY ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	152	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	NYM ML	166	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	MINN 1st 5 ML	164	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	MINN ML	260	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	BALT 1st 5 ML	164	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	BALT ML	155	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	SF 1st 5 ML	129	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	SF ML	132	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	163	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	SEA ML	163	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	177	2
	NYM ML	MINN ML	1555	2
	NYM ML	BALT 1st 5 ML	159	2
	NYM ML	BALT ML	151	2
	NYM ML	SF 1st 5 ML	125	2
	NYM ML	SF ML	128	2
	NYM ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	158	2
	NYM ML	SEA ML	159	2
	NYM ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	163	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML	MINN ML	153	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML	BALT 1st 5 ML	157	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML	BALT ML	149	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML	SF 1st 5 ML	123	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML	SF ML	126	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	156	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML	SEA ML	157	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	171	2
	MINN ML	BALT 1st 5 ML	153	2
	MINN ML	BALT ML	145	2
	MINN ML	SF 1st 5 ML	120	2
	MINN ML	SF ML	123	2
	MINN ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	152	2
	MINN ML	SEA ML	153	2
	MINN ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	167	2
	BALT 1st 5 ML	BALT ML	149	2
	BALT 1st 5 ML	SF 1st 5 ML	123	2
	BALT 1st 5 ML	SF ML	126	2
	BALT 1st 5 ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	156	2
	BALT 1st 5 ML	SEA ML	157	2
	BALT 1st 5 ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	171	2
	BALT ML	SF 1st 5 ML	116	2
	BALT ML	SF ML	119	2
	BALT ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	148	2
	BALT ML	SEA ML	149	2
	BALT ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	162	2
	SF 1st 5 ML	SF ML	-104	2
	SF 1st 5 ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	122	2
	SF 1st 5 ML	SEA ML	123	2
	SF 1st 5 ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	135	2
	SF ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	125	2
	SF ML	SEA ML	126	2
	SF ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	138	2
	SEA 1st 5 ML	SEA ML	156	2
	SEA 1st 5 ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	170	2
	SEA ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	170	2

	SD 1srt 5 ML		-120	2
	SD ML		-115	2

It’s a holiday weekend and the unofficial end of summer. The FL gets started this week. We have a weekend of family activities planned, including dinner with our niece and here husband last night, who drove in from Ohio and a family outing this afternoon., so there isn’t much time for game breakdowns. This is the best I can do, but over the last 3 days it’s been pretty damned good.

Here are my thought son the early games, I post thought on the three late games in a bit.

STL @ NYY

The Cards beat the Yankees 6-5 last night to even this series at a game apiece. Despite the loss, the Yanks are better than the Cards and the Cards won’t have will Warren to kick around today. The Yanks have the clearly better hitting team, and while the bullpens are close, the starting pitching matchup between Mikes Mikolas and Nestor Cortes isn’t. Mikolas has been tagged for at least 4 runs in four of his five August starts, leaving him with an ugly 1.38 WHIP and 6.39 ERA over 25.1 innings for the month. Cortes has been the exact op[posite, picking up 3 straight wins in his last 3 starts. After an ugly stretch in which he gave up 24 runs in five starts, Cortes has turned it around, giving up just 1 run in his last three starts combined.

Pick NYY 1^st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays

ATL @ PHIL

The Braves beat the Phils 7-2 last night to pick up a game on them in the NL East. The Phils now lead the Braves by 5 games. The Phils are the better hitting team, or at least that’s what the stats tell me, but the Braves have the better bullpen. For me this bet Is all about the two starting pitchers. Max Fried is having a good season for the Braves, but Zack Wheeler is having an even better one for the Phils.

It hasn’t always worked out, but for five innings, I’ll take Wheeler over Fried.

Pick – PHIL 1^st 5 ML in a series of parlays

SD @ TB

The Rays beat the Padres 11-4 yesterday to even this series at one game apiece. The Padres are the better hitting team here by a fairly wide margin, but the bullpens are close, and although the stats don’t necessarily say so, the Starting pitching matchup between Dulan Cease and Ryan Pepiot could be close too. Cease has struggled recently, particularly with his command. He’s issued 3 or more walks 4 times in his last 7 starts. Over that stretch, Cease has still managed to post a 1.27 WHIP and 2.92 ERA with a 38/18 K/BB ratio, and he hasn't produced a single double-digit K game over that span. Since returning from an over-one-month stay on the IL, Pepiot has given up 9 runs over 17.1 innings, but just 4 of the runs have been earned. He's also posted a solid 16/3 K/BB ratio over that span.

Pick SD 1^st 5 and full game MLs in a couple of side bets.

KC @ HOU

The Astros beat the Royals for the 3^rd straight time in this series and will be looking for the sweep today. Both of the teams can hit and both bullpens are decent, but the starting pitching matchup goes to the Astros. Alec Marsh will most likely be sent back to the minors after making a 2^nd spot start. He struggled in the first one, giving up 3 runs (2 earned) in the 1^st, but he settled down and keep his team in the game. The 26-year-old has posted mostly mediocre numbers so far this season in his 21 appearances. Roonel Blanco blanked the Phils over 4 innings before giving up single runs in the 5^th and 6^th. leaving the game just short of his 13^th quality start of the season. However, Blanco has taken a step back since the AS break, managing only 1 quality starts in seven 2^nd half starts, while posting a 1.43 WHIP and 4.98 ERA, 1.43 WHIP with a 41/41 K/BB ratio over 34.1 innings, and his career-high workload of 143.1 innings may have has something to do with that.

Pick – HOU 1^st 5 ML in a series of parlays

NYM @ CHI WS

To no one’s surprise, the Mets beat the White Sox agsain 5-3 last night to take a 2-0 series lead. The White Sox are the worst team in baseball an it’s not close. The White Sox have the worst offense in baseball, while the Mets have a top 10 offense. The Mets bullpen isn’t very good, but the White Sox pen is even worse. Sean Mamaea has pitched very well for the Mets this season, but so has Garrett Crochet for the White Sox, but sooner or later thy’ll have to go that that shitty pen and that will be light out time. .

I’m betting against the White Sox again, just like I have all season.

Pick – NYM ML in a series of parlays

TOR @ MINN

The Jay blew out the Twins 15-0 to even this series at one game apiece. The Twins are the better team. They hit better and the have the better bullpen as well. That leaves the two starting pitchers and Yariel Rodriguez v Bailey Ober looks like a mismatch. Rodriguez hasn’t been very good this season, but he had only served up 1HR run in his first 30 innings since coming off the IL in late June, but over his last four starts, he’s been taken deep 6 times, leading to an ugly 7.20 ERA in 20 innings over that stretch. The Braves bombed Bailey Ober for 9 runs in just 2 innings in just 2 innings. Entering that start, Ober had given up just 9 total runs over his previous six outings, going 4-0 with a 2.02 ERA over that span.

Ober is a lot better than Rodriguezm nd I say that he bounced back off an awful outing.

Pick – MINN 1^st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays

BALT @ COL –

Rhe Rockies beat the Orioles 7-5 to even this series at one game apiece. This game could be close because the Rockies are, at least, decent and dangerous at Coors. The Rockies hit much better at Coors, but the O’s are the better hitting team here and they should also put up runs at Coors. The O’s bullpen is shaky, at best, but the Rockies pen is garbage. Zach Eflin landed on the IL on Aug. 20 due to right shoulder inflammation, but a minimum stint on the IL was apparently all he needed. Eflin is 4-0 in his four starts since being acquired by the O’s in late July with a 1.03 WHIP and 2.13 ERA, with a 25/2 K/BB across 25.1 innings. Ty Blach was DFA'd by the Rockies in late July after posting a 1.70 WHIP and 6.36 ERA over 63.2 innings, but he opted to stay within the organization at the AAA level rather than enter free agency. The O’s are fighting to win the AL East, while the Rockies are dead. I like the O’s to find a way.

Pick – BALT 1^st 5 add full game MLs in a series of parlays.