For what it’s worth and I’ve mentioned this before, when you play so few games you have to run the table and win them all. Yesterday, I had a few parlays on the Reds and Yankees and a side bet on the Giants. The Reds and Giants won, but the Yankees got blown out, by the crappy Angels no less.
I ended up losing 7.05 units. That leaves me -97.46 units for the season.
We have a full slate of games today, so let’s get right to it.
It may not be worth much these days, but here is my Friday card.
|
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
160
|
2
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
NYY ML
|
162
|
2
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
SD ML
|
178
|
2
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
CHI C ML
|
178
|
2
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
171
|
1
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
158
|
2
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
149
|
2
|
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
NYY ML
|
165
|
2
|
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
SD ML
|
181
|
2
|
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
CHI C ML
|
181
|
2
|
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
174
|
2
|
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
1161
|
2
|
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
152
|
2
|
|
|
SD ML
|
CHI C ML
|
201
|
2
|
|
|
SD ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
193
|
2
|
|
|
SD ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
179
|
2
|
|
|
SD ML
|
LAD ML
|
169
|
2
|
|
|
CHI C ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
193
|
2
|
|
|
CHI C ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
179
|
2
|
|
|
CHI C ML
|
LAD ML
|
169
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
171
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
162
|
2
|
|
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
150
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
BALT ML
|
|
-128
|
2
|
As far as I can tell, the Tigers still haven’t named their starting pitcher yet. Depending on who it is, I may add the Giants later on
Here are my thoughts.
CLEV @ MINN
The Guardians still lead the AL Central by 4.5 games over these Twins, after getting swept in a three-game series by the visiting Diamondbacks.
The Twins, who trail the Guardians by 4.5 games in the AL Central, return home after dropping two of three to the Cubs in Chicago. This is a big series for them.
Starting Pitchers
|
2:10
|
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
CLEV
|
Cantillio (L (0-1)
|
(0/2)
|
(2/2)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MINN
|
Ober - (11/5)
|
-1421
|
(7/21)
|
0.98
|
3.69
|
3.47
|
3.81
|
3.83
|
3.58
|
0.282
|
0.293
|
26.8%
|
6.1%
|
Edge – MINN, big
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
CLEV
|
4.65
|
12
|
0.313
|
12
|
104
|
12
|
0.161
|
10
|
8.0%
|
18
|
34.8%
|
30
|
6.0%
|
29
|
19.6%
|
4
|
|
MINN
|
4.88
|
8
|
0.326
|
6
|
113
|
4
|
0.176
|
5
|
8.1%
|
16
|
38.5%
|
19
|
8.6%
|
9
|
21.3%
|
10
|
Edge - MINN
Conclusion: The Guardians offense has hit a wall and suddenly regressed. The Twins are the better hitting team now. That leaves the two starting pitchers. Bailey Ober is pitching well for the Twins with an excellent stat profile. Joey Cantillo has only started 2 games for the Guardians and both were lousy. He has given up 6 runs on 10 hits and 3 walks over 7.1 innings with 7 Ks. No thanks!
Pick MINN 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
BALT @ TB
The struggling Orioles head south to Tampa to open a weekend series against the Rays, after dropping two of three to the Blue Jays in Toronto. They remain tied with the Yankees at the top of the AL East, despite going just 10-10 since the AS break.
The Rays return home after dropping two of three to the Cards in St. Louis. They remain well out of contention in the AL East, 9 games out, but remain in contention for an AL wild card spot, 5 games behind the Royals.
Starting Pitchers
|
12:05
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
BALT
|
Eflin - R (7-7)
|
(11/21)
|
(9/21)
|
1.18
|
4.05
|
3.39
|
3.70
|
3.81
|
3.96
|
0.305
|
0.290
|
18.9%
|
2.7%
|
|
TB
|
Littell - R (5-7)
|
(11/22)
|
(10/22)
|
1.33
|
4.06
|
4.34
|
4.02
|
4.02
|
3.99
|
0.335
|
0.325
|
21,2%
|
4.5%
|
Edge – TB slight
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
BALT
|
22
|
15
|
34
|
17
|
68.1%
|
26
|
0.50
|
14
|
0.220
|
4
|
1.20
|
6
|
4.03
|
18
|
23.8%
|
12
|
8.8%
|
15
|
|
TB
|
33
|
20
|
36
|
17
|
71.4%
|
13
|
0.50
|
14
|
0.226
|
11
|
1.22
|
8
|
4.00
|
16
|
22.8%
|
19
|
8.6%
|
12
|
Edge – None
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
BALT
|
5.09
|
3
|
0.334
|
1
|
119
|
1
|
0.201
|
1
|
7.8%
|
20
|
43.5%
|
1
|
9.7%
|
3
|
21.8%
|
12
|
|
TB
|
3.96
|
27
|
0.302
|
20
|
99
|
15
|
0.140
|
27
|
8.8%
|
6
|
36.6%
|
24
|
7.7%
|
14
|
24.2%
|
22
|
Edge – BALT
Conclusion: I don’t know what’s wrong with the Orioles. Over the first half if the season they were one of the best teams in baseball, and since then, they’ve collapsed. These days Corbin Burnes is their only reliable starter, their bullpen is still a mess and the hitting has been inconsistent. The O’s should be better than the Rays. Their offensive stat profile says that they remain a top-tier offense, a lot better than the Rays. The bullpen stats for both teams are pretty mediocre and I can’t give either one much of an edge. That leaves the two starting pitchers and to be perfectly honest both Zach Eflin and Zach Wheeler look like the same guy. It’s uncanny that their statistics are so damned close. Eflin actually gets most of the stat edges, but the margins are razor thin. Neither pitcher is good enough to warrant a 1st 5 bet and neither is bad enough to fade.
The Orioles should be the better team and their big edge should be their bats.
Pick – BALT full game ML
TEX @ NYY
The Rangers head to New York to open a weekend series against the Yankees, after dropping two of three to the visiting Astros. Astros. They now trail the Astros by 5.5 games in the wacky AL West that nobody seems to want to win. They are also 9.5 behind the Royals in the AL wild card race, so their only realistic shot of getting back to the playoffs is to find a way to win their division.
The Yankees, amazingly are still tied with the Orioles at the top of the AL East, despite dropping two of three to the crappy visiting Angels, including a 9-4 beatdown last night that wasn’t even as close as that score might suggest.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:05
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
TEX
|
Bradford - L (3-0)
|
(3/4)
|
(1/4)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NYY
|
Rodon - L (12-7)
|
(13/23)
|
(9/23)
|
1.21
|
4.37
|
4.22
|
4.59
|
4.21
|
3.81
|
0.326
|
0.321
|
25.8%
|
7.2%
|
Edge – NYY
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
TEX
|
22
|
17
|
24
|
13
|
73.4%
|
8
|
0.51
|
18
|
0.234
|
17
|
1.37
|
24
|
4.41
|
27
|
24.0%
|
11
|
11.1%
|
29
|
|
NYY
|
21
|
14
|
30
|
16
|
73.7%
|
7
|
0.46
|
7
|
0.221
|
6
|
1.24
|
10
|
3.46
|
4
|
23.1%
|
16
|
9.3%
|
19
|
Edge – NYY
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
TEX
|
4.22
|
18
|
0.301
|
21
|
92
|
22
|
0.142
|
23
|
8.3%
|
12
|
39.3%
|
12
|
7.2%
|
21
|
20.6%
|
7
|
|
NYY
|
5.12
|
2
|
0.334
|
1
|
119
|
1
|
0.185
|
2
|
10.5%
|
1
|
41.6%
|
3
|
10.4%
|
1
|
20.6%
|
7
|
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: I don’t know what in the hell is wrong with the Yankees. That game yesterday was an embarrassment to the entire organization. With two MVP candidates in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, this team should be better than they’ve played. The Yanks hold all the edges. They hit better than the Rangers, with the better bullpen and the better starting pitcher.
Pick – NYY 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
SD @ MIA
The Padres head to Miami to open a series with the Marlins, after sweeping the Pirates in Pittsburgh, including an exciting 7-6 win last night. They now trail the Dodgers in the NL West by just 2.5 games and currently hold the top NL wild card spot. The Padres look like a playoff team and they’re playing like one, posting a stellar 14-3 record since the AS break.
The Marlins, who just dopped two of three to the visiting Reds, including a devastating 10-4 10-inning loss last night, unloaded everything that wasn’t nailed down at the trade deadline. Now, they’re basically fielding an AAA team. This is and will continue to be a really bad team.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
SD
|
Perez - L (2-5)
|
(6/17)
|
(11/17)
|
1.57
|
4.96
|
5.41
|
4.82
|
4.52
|
4.65
|
0.368
|
0.358
|
17.8%
|
8.1%
|
|
MIA
|
Cabrera - R (2-3)
|
(4/11)
|
(7/11)
|
1.49
|
5.96
|
4.58
|
5.13
|
3.72
|
3.95
|
0.342
|
0.333
|
29.8%
|
13.0%
|
Edge – MIA???
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
SD
|
27
|
13
|
28
|
18
|
71.1%
|
14
|
0.48
|
11
|
0.238
|
20
|
1.25
|
13
|
3.99
|
15
|
24.2%
|
9
|
7.8%
|
1
|
|
MIA
|
26
|
25
|
22
|
20
|
69.6%
|
21
|
0.48
|
11
|
0.231
|
16
|
1.25
|
13
|
3.77
|
11
|
23.5%
|
14
|
8.7%
|
13
|
Edge – SD
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
SD
|
4.72
|
11
|
0.323
|
8
|
113
|
4
|
0.153
|
16
|
7.5%
|
25
|
38.6%
|
18
|
7.2%
|
21
|
17.9%
|
1
|
|
MIA
|
3.65
|
29
|
0.284
|
29
|
81
|
29
|
0.124
|
30
|
6.3%
|
30
|
37.0%
|
22
|
7.1%
|
23
|
22.7%
|
18
|
Edge – SD
Conclusion: The Padres are better than the Marlins almost everywhere we look on the stat board, and they are hot. He had a good first outing for the Padres, but Matin Perez has sucked this season and most every other season he’s played. Edward Cabrera hasn’t been very good either, but his last two starts were, and he's got a great K rate.
The Padres are the much better team and I say they find a way to win this game. After engaging in a selling frenzy at the trade deadline, the Marlins are fielding an AAA lineup and nobody expects much from them. The Marlins are a really bad team. The Padres are a very good one.
Pick – SD full game ML in a series of parlays
CHI C @ CHI WS
The Cubs head to the south side of the “Windy City” to open a series against the White Sox. The Cubs now trail he Brwers by 9.5 games in the NL Central and can probably forget about winning the Division. However, in the crazy-close NL wild card race with 9 teams within 5 games of earning a spot, the Cubs are just 5 back, but will have to leapfrog 4 teams to earn a spot.
Starting Pitchers
|
8:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
CHI C
|
Taillon (r (7-6)
|
(12/19)
|
(7/19)
|
1.16
|
3.25
|
3.79
|
3.98
|
4.21
|
4.26
|
0.291
|
0.305
|
19.0%
|
4.9%
|
|
CHI WS
|
Crochet - L (6-8)
|
(17/23)
|
(6/23)
|
1.01
|
3.19
|
2.57
|
2.64
|
2.61
|
2.71
|
0.260
|
0.253
|
33.9%
|
6.3%
|
Edge - CHI WS
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
CHI C
|
28
|
26
|
24
|
21
|
72.7%
|
10
|
0.46
|
7
|
0.223
|
8
|
1.27
|
18
|
3.66
|
8
|
24.1%
|
10
|
10.1%
|
25
|
|
CHI WS
|
8
|
38
|
17
|
28
|
67.2%
|
28
|
0.64
|
29
|
0.252
|
26
|
1.52
|
29
|
5.04
|
28
|
22.2%
|
21
|
11.6%
|
30
|
Edge - CHI C, big
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
CHI C
|
4.21
|
`9
|
0.300
|
23
|
93
|
20
|
0.146
|
21
|
9.1%
|
4
|
38.1%
|
20
|
7.8%
|
13
|
23.5%
|
21
|
|
CHI WS
|
3.08
|
30
|
0.275
|
30
|
75
|
30
|
0.127
|
29
|
7.0%
|
29
|
36.2%
|
27
|
6.8%
|
27
|
24.3%
|
23
|
Edge - CHI C
Conclusion: The Cubs are the better team here. How could they not be? They will be facing the worst team in baseball and quite possibly the worst in baseball history. Yes, they have Garrett Crochet pitching tonight and he has been better than Jameson Taillon., but he has struggled in each of his last two starts. At over 118 innings, Crochet has double his career high in innings pitched and I suspect that it may be catching up with his. I doubt he throws a complete game tjha the Cubs should be able to tee of the White Sox’s pen. The Cubbies hit better and have the better pen.
Pick – CHI C ML in a series of parlays
PHIL @ ARIZ
Bryce Harper had three hits and Trea Turner dded a go-ahead, two-run single as the Phils beat the Diamondbacks 6-4 late last y night. The Phils now lead the NL East by a comfortable 8 games over the Mets.
The Diamondbacks now trail the Dodgers by 3.5 games ub the NL West, but currently hold the 2nd NL wild card spot.
Starting Pitchers
|
9:40
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
PHIL
|
Wheeler - R (11-5)
|
(18/22)
|
(4/22)
|
0.98
|
2.77
|
2.99
|
3.39
|
3.52
|
3.54
|
0.260
|
0.273
|
27.3%
|
7.6%
|
|
ARIZ
|
Nelson - R (8-6)
|
(8/19)
|
(11/19)
|
1.37
|
4.65
|
4.12
|
3.69
|
4.35
|
4.38
|
0.336
|
0.317
|
18.1%
|
5.9%
|
Edge – PHIL, big
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
PHIL
|
18
|
19
|
28
|
17
|
70.7%
|
17
|
0.50
|
14
|
0.234
|
17
|
1.25
|
13
|
3.98
|
13
|
26.2%
|
3
|
8.3%
|
8
|
|
ARIZ
|
27
|
21
|
29
|
20
|
72.3%
|
12
|
0.51
|
18
|
0.252
|
26
|
1.37
|
24
|
4.26
|
24
|
19.7%
|
28
|
9.2%
|
17
|
Edge – PHIL
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
PHIL
|
4.90
|
5
|
0.320
|
11
|
105
|
11
|
0.160
|
12
|
8.6%
|
9
|
39.2%
|
13
|
7.4%
|
18
|
22.0%
|
13
|
|
ARIZ
|
5.16
|
1
|
0.327
|
5
|
110
|
7
|
0.169
|
7
|
8.5%
|
10
|
38.7%
|
16
|
7.6%
|
16
|
20.3%
|
5
|
Edge – ARIZ, small
Conclusion: This is simple. I’m betting on Zack Wheeler. Comparing Ryne Nelson to Wheeler is absurd.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
PITT @ LAD
The Pirates head west to LA to open a series against the Dodgers, after getting swept in a three-game series by the visiting Padres, including a tough 7-6 loss last night. They now trail the Brewers by a probably insurmountable 9 games in the NL Central, but are only 4.5 games out in the wacky NL wild card race.
The Dodgers, who dropped two of three to the visiting Phils, still lead the NL West m but only by a scant 2.5 games over the surging Padres.
Starting Pitchers
|
10:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
PITT
|
Keller - R (10-5)
|
(13/22)
|
(9/22)
|
1.19
|
3.20
|
3.79
|
3.76
|
4.09
|
4.10
|
0.306
|
0.305
|
21.1%
|
6.4%
|
|
LAD
|
Flaherty - R (8-5)
|
(15/19)
|
(4/19)
|
0.96
|
2.80
|
2.93
|
3.03
|
2.61
|
2.75
|
0.267
|
0.270
|
31.8%
|
4.5%
|
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
PITT
|
25
|
26
|
28
|
22
|
68.0%
|
27
|
0.56
|
27
|
0.245
|
23
|
1.37
|
24
|
4.40
|
26
|
23.1%
|
16
|
9.6%
|
21
|
|
LAD
|
28
|
19
|
35
|
21
|
73.9%
|
6
|
0.46
|
7
|
0.222
|
7
|
1.19
|
2
|
3.66
|
8
|
23.1%
|
16
|
8.7%
|
13
|
Edge – LAD
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
PITT
|
4.23
|
17
|
0.297
|
26
|
89
|
25
|
0.141
|
25
|
8.3%
|
12
|
40.3%
|
8
|
8.6%
|
9
|
24.4%
|
24
|
|
LAD
|
4.90
|
5
|
0.330
|
4
|
115
|
3
|
0.181
|
4
|
9.9%
|
2
|
41.0%
|
6
|
9.2%
|
5
|
22.2%
|
15
|
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: The Dodgers have been a huge disappointment to me and many of their fans. The Padres and Diamondbacks are nipping at their heels and they could actually lose the NL West. After committing almost a billion dollars to Ohtani and Yamamoto, I expected more. Despite all the injuries on the pitching side, it’s been the offense that has not produced. The Dodgers aren’t blowing teams out like they did early in the season. Every game is a struggle and every game is close. This team should be hitting a lot better than they are. All that said, if he stays healthy, Jack Flaherty is a stud. He’s been great all season and he was great in his first start for the Dodgers. Mitch Keller is a quality starting pitcher, but he’s not in Flaherty’s league. Flaherty’s stat profile is just much better.
The Dodgers are still better than the Pirates and Flaherty is better than Keller.
Pick – LAD 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays.