For what it’s worth, after my “Terrible Tuesday” I needed a big bounce back yesterday and I sort of got one. 

Of the twelve sides that I used on my parlay card, eight won and four lost.  The Yankees, Padres and Giants all won both their first five and full games, while the A’s won their full game after losing their 1^st 5 and the Braves won their 1^st five.  My losers were the Twins first five and full game, the A’s first five and the Reds ML.

I also had four side bets, the Astros first 5 and full game, the Orioles full game and the Tigers first five, and they all won as well.

As mentioned, Tuesday was terrible.  I lost 35.94 units.  Yesterday I won 12.44 units back.  That now leaves me an ugly -90.41 units for the 2024 season.       

We have a very small slate of games today and I only like three of them, so let’s get to it.   Here is my Thursday Card   

It may not be worth much these days, but here is my Wednesday card.  

Here is my reasoning on all three games that I bet.   Although I didn’t have time to post it, I threw a couple of units on the Giants full game ML in a side bet.

SF @ WASH

The Giants got a pair of solo HRs from Heliot Ramos and Matt Chapman in the 5^th to break a 3-3 tie as the Giants beat the National 7-4 last night to take a 2-1 lead in this series.  Blake Snell who was coming off a no-hitter against the A’s in his last start, gave up three runs on four hits and one walk over six innings, while striking out eight, retired the last nine hitters that he faced. He came into this starting having given up only two earned runs total in his five starts since coming off the IL.

The Giants now trail the Dodgers by 8.5 games in the NL West, but are within striking distance, just 3.5 games behind the Braves for the final NL wild card spot.  The Nats, who harbor no such illusion, are just playing out the string and looking to next season.     

Starting Pitcher

Edge – WASH slight

Bullpens

Edge – SF

Offenses

Edge – SF

Conclusion:  The Giants hold all the edges in this one.  They are the clearly better hitting team and have the better bullpem.  They also have the better stating pitcher.  After a realy slow start, Blake Snell has now delivered five straight great outing in his last five starts, giving up 2 runs in pne of them and 0 in the other four, topped off by a career-high 15 K outing two starts ago, followed by a no-hitter in his last start.  No offense to Jake Irvin, who is having a solid season, but he’s not in Snell’s class.

The Giants are the much better team and Snell’s pitching like a demon right now.

Pick – SF 1^st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays

CIN @ MIA

Much to my dismay, the Marlins finally managed to beat the Reds 6-4 last night, after the Reds beat the crap out of them 8-2 and 10-3 in the first two games of this series. Derek Hill, a recent waiver pick-up, capped a five-run 1^st with a grand slam  and Marlins starter Valente Bellozo took a shutout into the 6^th as the Marlins staved off a late Reds rally to hang on for a 6-4 win. 

The Marlins unloaded everything that wasn’t nailed down at the trade deadline.  Now, they’re basically fielding an AAA team.  This is a really bad team.  The Reds sit in the NL Central basement 9.5 games behind the Brewers and are 5.5 games out in the NL wild card race and would need to leapfrog six other teams to get in.  Not likely!   

Starting Pitchers 

Edge – CIN, big

Bullpens

Edge – CIN

Offenses

Edge – CIN

Conclusion:  The Reds are definitely the better team here.  They hit better than the Marlins, averaging more than ¾ of run more than the Marlins with a better wOBA, wRC+, ISO and walk rate.  The Reds also have the better of two less than stellar bullpens, with a better save and strad rate and well as a lower ERA,  a higher K rate and a lower walk rate.  That bring us to the two starting pitchers and the Reds should have a huge edge there.

Hunter Greene has pitched very well for the Reds this season.  He has started 22 games with 16 grading as above average, 1 grading as average and 5 grading as below.  His 1.02 WHIP and 2.83 ERA are both excellent and his ERA metrics, while all a little higher than his ERA are still solid with a well below league average wOBA and xwOBA.  Greene us striking out over a batter per inning and the only negative part of his stat profile  , an elite K rate, but a high 9.4% walk rate.  Everything else looks great.

Kyle Tyler has now started 6 for the Marlins with twice as many (4) grading as below age above average, as above (2).  His 1.76 WHIP and 5.27 ERA are both extremely high and his ERA metrics aren’t much better.  Tyler’s .366 wOBA is 50 points higher than the league average and his xwOBA is even higher.  His K rate is pedestrian and comes with a very high walk rate resulting in a poor 22/16 K/BB ratio.  These is absolutely nothing appealing about Kyle Typer’s stat profile.

After engaging in a selling frenzy at the trade deadline, the Marlins are fielding an AAA lineup and nobody expects much from them.  The Marlins are a really bad team.  The Reds aren’t a good team, but they are better than the Marlins and Hunter Greene is much better than Kyle Tyler 

Pick - CIN 1^st 5 and full game MLs in a few parlays

LAA @ NYY

The first game of this series was rained out on Tuesday, so these teams played two yesterday.  In the first game, rookie Luis Gil, despite struggling with his command, pitched five scoreless innings and gave up just 2 hits as the Yankees beat the Angels 5-2 in the first game.  In the 2^nd game,   Zach Neto hit his first career grand slam in a six-run 2^nd  off Yanks’rookie Will Warren and drove in a career-high six runs as the Angels beat the Yankees 8-2 to earn a split of their doubleheader.

The Yanks are now tied with the Orioles at the top of the AL East, while the Angels ae just playing out the string and looking to next season.

Starting Pitchers 

Edge – NYY

Bullpens 

Edge – NYY

Offenses

Edge – NYY

Conclusion:  The Yanks are a lot better than the Angels across the board.  They are one of the best hitting teams in baseball, raking 1^st in wOBA, wRC+, walk and barrel rates, as well as 2^nd in runs per game and ISO and 3^rd in hard-hit rate.  The Angels rank in the bottom third of the league in almost all those categpries.  The Yankees also have the better bullpen, giving up fewer runs per inning pitched, with a lower strand rate, ERA, K and walk rate than the Angels.  Thant brings us to the two starting pitchers.

Tyler Anderson has pitching OK for the Angels this season.  He has now started 22 games with 13 grading as above average and 9 grading as below.  While Anderson’s 1.17 WHIP and 3.05 ERA are both good, his ERA metrics are all more than a full run higher than that ERA, telling me that Anderson’s ERA is somewhat fraudulent.  That’s also confirmed by Anderson’s wOBA which is higher than the league average and his xwOBA which is even higher.  His 18.3% K rate is pedestrian and his 9.2%walk rate is high  for a guy who’s not generating a lot of Ks.  Anderson’s stat profile is OK, but mostly pretty mediocre.

Nestor Cortes has now started 23 games with 12 grading as above average and 11 grading as below.  Cortes’ 1.20 WHIP and 4.16 ERA are both mediocre and a little higher than Anderson’s, but his ERA metrics are mostly lower than that ERA and all lower than Anderson’s.  Cortes’ wOBA and xwOBA are right around league average and he is striking almost a better per inning which is higher than Anderson with a 4% lower walk rate.  Cortes’ stat profile isn’t great, but it is better than Anderson, especially when you look at the ERA metrics.

The Yanks are the much better team, and while it’s closer, Cortes should be the better starting pitcher.    

Pick – NY 1^st 5 and full game ML in a few parlays