For what it’s worth, yesterday was a better day than Tuesdaywas, but a couple of big losses killed any chance I had of turning a profit.
The first of those big losers was the Rays, who were beaten 6-2 by the wretched Marlins and their new AAA lineup. The Rays had no business losing that game.
My second loser was the Reds and Nick Lodolo, who inexplicably got blown out by the Cubs while failing to get to the eminently hittable Kyle Hendicks.
The rest of the card did well, but those two killed me. I finished the day -12.02 units. That now leaves -57.77 units for the season. Damn!
Here’s my very small Thursday card. I only like one game, but I’m going all in on it.
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ML Parlays
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Team #1
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Team #2
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Odds
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Units
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KC1st 5 ML
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KC ML
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172
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5
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KC @ DET
The Royals head to Detroit to open a series against the Tigers, after sweeping a three-game series against the worst in the league White Sox in Chicago. The Royals trail the Guardians by 6 games in the AL Central, but currently hold the final AL wild card spot, 2 games ahead of the Red Sox. The Tigers, who probably won’t make the playoffs this season, are now 14 games out in the AL Central, and 8 back in the AL wild card race.
Starting Pitchers
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6:40
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SP
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GS+
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GS-
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WHIP
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ERA
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xERA
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FIP
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xFIP
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SIERA
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wOBA
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xwOBA
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K%
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BB%
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KC
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Lugo - R (23-5)
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(18/22)
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(4/22)
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1.04
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2.66
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3.95
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3.33
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3.75
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3.87
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0.271
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0.312
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21.8%
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5.6%
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DET
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Montero - R (1-4)
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(2/6)
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(4/6)
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1.45
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6.38
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5.35
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6.08
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4.37
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4.34
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0.384
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0.357
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19.5%
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6.9%
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Edge – KC
Bullpens
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Team
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W
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L
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SV
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BS
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LOB%
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Rk
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R/IP
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Rk
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AVG
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Rk
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WHIP
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Rk
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ERA
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Rk
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K%
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Rk
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BB%
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Rk
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KC
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42
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33
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26
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14
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75.8%
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3
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0.41
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3
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0.253
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26
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1.18
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4
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3.55
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4
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23.0%
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7
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7.1%
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10
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DET
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28
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33
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23
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18
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71.8%
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19
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0.47
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9
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0.231
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16
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1.21
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6
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3.86
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10
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23.6%
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4
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6.1%
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3
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Edge – KC, slight
Offenses
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Team
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RPG
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Rk
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wOBA
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Rk
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wRC+
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Rk
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ISO
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Rk
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BB%
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Rk
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HH%
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Rk
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Bar%
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Rk
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K%
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Rk
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KC
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4.70
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10
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0.312
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12
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97
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18
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0.159
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12
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7.2%
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27
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39.3%
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12
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7.6%
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15
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18.2%
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2
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DET
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4.21
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20
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0.297
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26
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91
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25
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0.153
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16
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7.7%
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21
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37.9%
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21
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7.6%
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15
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23.4%
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21
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Edge – KC
Conclusion: The Royals are better than the Tigers. They’re 8 games better in the standings with a +93 run differential. The Royals have a legitimate shot of at least a wild card spot. The Tigers probably don’t. The Royals are the better hitting team as well. They average about half a run more per game than the Tigers with a better wOBA, wRC+, ISO and hard-hit rate. They might also hae the slightly better bullpen, but that’s a very close matchup. That brings us to the two starting pitcherd and the Ryals should have a big edge there as well.
Seth Lugo is having a truly great season. He has now started 22 games for the Royals with 18 grading as above average and just 4 grading as below. Lugo’s been incredibly consistent. His 1.04 WHIP and 2.66 ERA are both outstanding, and while his ERA metrics are all higher than that stellar ERA, they are still very olid, but when combined with an xwOBA that’s more than 40 points higher than his actual one, it tells me that we could see some regression going forward for Lugo, nothing major, but some nonetheless.
By contrast, Keider Montero has only started 6 games for the Tigers with just 2 grading as above average and the other 4 grading as below. The rookie right-hander has struggled in recent starts, giving up 5 runs in each of his last 3 starts. Montero’s 1,45 WHIP and 6.38 ERA are both lousy and his ERA metric, while not quite as bad as that ugly ERA, are still not very good. and seeing his ERA rise from 4.64 to 6.38. Montero has also struggled with the long ball, having given up 10 HRs in his six starts.
The Royals are the better team and they have the clearly better starting pitcher.
Pick – KC 1st 5 ML and full game ML in a same game parlay