For what it’s worth, so far so good. Yes, the Rays lost both their 1st 5 and full game, but both the Orioles and Royals cashed both their 1st 5 and full game bets, while the Diamondbacks pushed their 1st 5 and cashed their full game. Additionally the Twins and Mariners both won their 1st 5 and the Diamondbacks pushed theirs.
Here are my thoughts on the three evening games. May they go as well.
CHI C @ CIN
The Reds beat the Cubs 6-3 last night, after winning the first game of this series 7-1 on Monday.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB %
|
|
CHI C
|
Hendricks - R (2/9)
|
(4/14(
|
(10/14)
|
1.49
|
6.95
|
5.14
|
5.36
|
4.45
|
4.61
|
0.357
|
0.351
|
15.9%
|
6.8%
|
|
CIN
|
Lodolo - L (8-3)
|
(12/16)
|
(3/16)
|
1.11
|
3.45
|
3.45
|
3.84
|
3.84
|
3.65
|
0.293
|
0.293
|
24.6%
|
6.8%
|
Edge – CIN
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
CHI C
|
25
|
25
|
23
|
20
|
72.8%
|
9
|
0.52
|
20
|
0.226
|
11
|
1.29
|
19
|
3.73
|
10
|
24.2%
|
10
|
10.3%
|
25
|
|
CIN
|
14
|
23
|
22
|
8
|
75.0%
|
5
|
0.51
|
17
|
0.225
|
9
|
1.21
|
7
|
3.43
|
4
|
24.9%
|
6
|
8.5%
|
9
|
Edge - CIN
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
CHI C
|
4.08
|
25
|
0.301
|
23
|
94
|
21
|
0.142
|
22
|
8.9%
|
6
|
38.0%
|
20
|
7.7%
|
13
|
23.3%
|
20
|
|
CIN
|
4.41
|
15
|
0.304
|
19
|
90
|
26
|
0.164
|
10
|
8.2%
|
15
|
35.6%
|
29
|
7.2%
|
20
|
24.6%
|
26
|
Edge – CIN
Conclusion: The Reds appear to have all the edges here. The stats tell me that the Reds are the slightly better hittinmg team here. The average about a third of a run more than the Cubs with the slightly better wOBA and ISO, but the Cubs have the slightly better wRC+walk, hard-hit and barrel rates, so it’s all very close. The stats also say that the Reds have the clearly better bullpen. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that should be a mismatch.
Kyle Hendrickshas mostly struggled this season. He has started 14 games with more than twice as many below average stats (10) as above average ones (4). Hendricks’ 149 WHIP and 6.95 ERA are both extremely high and his ERA metrics, while not as high as that ugly ERA, are still not very good. That same analysis applies to Hendricks; wOBA, xwOBA and K rate. Hendricks’ entire stat profile is garbage and much worse than Nick Lodolo’s.
Nick Lodolo has now started 18 games for the Reds with ttwice as many above average starts (12), as below average ones (6). His 1.11 WHIP and 3.45 ERA are both very good and muvh better than Hendrick’s. That’s also true of the rest of Lodolo’s statistical profile, all good and all much better than Hendrick’s.
Pick – CIN 1st 5 and full game MLs
PITT @ HOU
The Pirates beat the Astros again 6-2 last night, after rallying late for a 5-3 win on Monday night.
Starting Pitchers
|
8:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
PITT
|
Woodford - R (0-2)
|
(0/2)
|
(2/2)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HOU
|
Valdez - L (9-5)
|
(12/18)
|
(6/18)
|
1.26
|
3.43
|
3.87
|
3.61
|
3.35
|
3.67
|
0.300
|
0.309
|
3.0%
|
8.4%
|
Edge – HOU big
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
PITT
|
24
|
20
|
27
|
17
|
67.6%
|
28
|
0.46
|
6
|
0.240
|
20
|
1.36
|
25
|
4.31
|
25
|
23.6%
|
13
|
9.7%
|
22
|
|
HOU
|
18
|
19
|
25
|
15
|
75.4%
|
4
|
0.51
|
17
|
0.228
|
14
|
1.27
|
15
|
3.75
|
11
|
24.3%
|
9
|
9.7%
|
22
|
Edge - HOU
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
PITT
|
4.16
|
21
|
0.294
|
28
|
87
|
27
|
0.138
|
27
|
8.3%
|
14
|
40.5%
|
8
|
8.5%
|
9
|
24.2%
|
24
|
|
HOU
|
4.67
|
10
|
0.321
|
10
|
109
|
8
|
0.157
|
13
|
7.2%
|
27
|
38.3%
|
18
|
7.5%
|
18
|
18.8%
|
3
|
Edge – HOU
Conclusion: The Astros should obviously be the better team here, but it damned sure didn’t play out that way in the first two games of this series. The stats say that the Astros shold be the better hitting team, averaging about a half a run more per game than the Pirates with the better wOBA, wRC+ and ISO. The stats also say that the Astros have the better bullpen, but that’s a much closer matchup. That brings us to the starting pitchers and that looks like a big mismatch.
Lake Woodford started seven games for AAA Indianapolis after joining the Pirates on a minor-league deal in June, putting up a 1.03 WHIP and 2.29 ERA, with a 37/5 K/BB ratio over 35.1 AAA innings. His performance earned him a promotion to the parent club yesterday, and he will make his first MLB start since June 6. The 27-year-old righty gave up 10 runs in 8.1 innings in his two starts with the White Sox. That doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Framber Valdez hasn’t been as consistent this season as he’s been in previous seasons, but he still has twice as many (12) above average starts as below average ones(6) in his 18 outings this season. His 1.26 WHIP and 3.43 ERA are both solid, as are his ERA metrics, which are totally consistent with that ERA and the same holds true for Valdez’s wOBA, xwOBA, K and walk rates, and then there’s that still elite 59.9% GB rate that keeps Valdez more than relevant.
Pick – HOU 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
OAK @ SF
The A’s beat the Giant 5-2 yesterday to take the first game of this SF Bay area matchup.
Starting Pitchers
|
9:45
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
OAK
|
Stripling - R (2-9)
|
(4/12)
|
(8/12)
|
1.58
|
6.02
|
4.17
|
3.92
|
4.56
|
4.86
|
0.356
|
0.320
|
13.8%
|
5.1%
|
|
SF
|
Webb - (7-8)
|
(14/22)
|
(7/22)
|
1.32
|
3.72
|
4.35
|
2.95
|
3.30
|
3.60
|
0.301
|
0.326
|
20.4%
|
6.2%
|
Edge – SF, mostly by default.
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
OAK
|
15
|
17
|
21
|
14
|
74.1%
|
6
|
0.48
|
12
|
0.228
|
14
|
1.26
|
12
|
3.53
|
5
|
22.9%
|
18
|
9.7%
|
22
|
|
SF
|
28
|
22
|
21
|
16
|
70.1%
|
18
|
0.47
|
9
|
0.253
|
28
|
1.32
|
23
|
4.37
|
27
|
23.7%
|
12
|
7.9%
|
4
|
Edge – OAK, close
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
OAK
|
4.16
|
21
|
0.306
|
17
|
102
|
13
|
0.167
|
7
|
8.5%
|
11
|
39.7%
|
10
|
9.4%
|
5
|
25.4%
|
28
|
|
SF
|
4.42
|
14
|
0.311
|
13
|
104
|
12
|
0.151
|
18
|
8.8%
|
7
|
39.0%
|
13
|
8.2%
|
11
|
22.4%
|
16
|
Edge – SF, close
Conclusion: This is tough and it is close, close enough so that I’m not at all sure which is the better team. Neither team hits well, but the Giants average about a quarter of a run more per game than the A’s with a slightly better wOBA and wRC+, as well as a better walk rate. Neither bullpen is good, but the A’s have more of the statistical edges. That bring us to the two starting pitchers.
Ross Stripling has now started 12 games with twice as many below average starts (8) as above average ones (4). His 1.58 WHIP and 6.02 ER are both really bad and his ERA metric, while not quite as bad, aren’t good. The same analyisi applies to his wOBA and xwOBA. Stirling is also carrying a lousy K rate. There’s not much to like about this guy.
Logan Webb hasn’t been as effective this season as we’ve gotten used to. He has started 22 game2 with twice as many above average starts (14) as below average ones (7). His 1.32 WHIP is higher than we would normally expect from Webb and pretty mediocre, while his 3.72 ERA is OK, but nothing special. However, Webb’s ERA metrics are mostly lower than his bloated ERA, telling me that Webb has actually pitched better than that ERA would suggest. While, we’ve come to expect better from Logan Webb his current stat profile is still across the board much better than Stripling’s.
I’ll be expecting Webb to bounce back some tonight.
Pick – SF 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays