he Rays are struggling but the O's and Twins are doing OK. Here are the two late afternoon games. I'll post the three evening games later.\
WASH @ ARIZ
The Diamondbacks trashed the Nats 17-0 last night, after winning 9-8 on Monday.
Starting Pitchers
|
3:40
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
WASH
|
Gore - L (6-8)
|
(12/21)
|
(9/21)
|
1.50
|
4.51
|
4.20
|
3.39
|
3.86
|
3.90
|
0.333
|
0.321
|
25.6%
|
9.1%
|
|
ARIZ
|
Gallen - R (8-5)
|
(11/17)
|
(6/17)
|
1.25
|
3.70
|
4.20
|
3.48
|
3.68
|
3.94
|
0.303
|
0.323
|
23.5%
|
8.2%
|
Edge – ARIZ
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
WASH
|
22
|
20
|
29
|
14
|
69.9%
|
19
|
0.62
|
29
|
0.251
|
26
|
1.31
|
21
|
4.19
|
20
|
21.7%
|
24
|
8.0%
|
5
|
|
ARIZ
|
24
|
20
|
24
|
18
|
72.5%
|
10
|
0.38
|
2
|
0.251
|
26
|
1.37
|
26
|
4.23
|
21
|
19.3%
|
28
|
9.2%
|
18
|
Edge – None
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
WASH
|
4.28
|
16
|
0.301
|
23
|
93
|
22
|
0.131
|
28
|
7.9%
|
17
|
36.0%
|
27
|
5.5%
|
30
|
20.5%
|
7
|
|
ARIZ
|
5.01
|
3
|
0.323
|
8
|
108
|
9
|
0.162
|
11
|
8.7%
|
9
|
38.8%
|
16
|
7.4%
|
19
|
20.4%
|
6
|
Edge – ARIZ big
Conclusion: The Dbacks have the way better offense and it’s been on display omn this series as they’e put up[ 26 rus in the first two games. That leaves the two starting pitchers
Mackenzie Gore is a talented pitcher with a huge upside and he having a solid season for the Nats. He has now started 21 games with 12 grading as above average and 9 grading as below, but 6 of those 9 below average start have come in his last 7 outings. . Gore’s WHIP and ERA are both the highest that they’ve been all season and his ERA metrics are now just mediocre. rI think that the innings are catching up with him. He’s already over 105 and is on a pace to top last season’s 136.1, which was a career high. Gore is not pitching anywhere near as well as he was ear;ier in the season.
Zac Gallen has now started 17 games for the Diamondbacks with 11 grading as above average and 6 grading as below. Gallen’s 1.25 WHIP and 3.70 ERA are OK, but not great and his ERA metrics are mostly consistemt with that ERA. Gallen’s wOBA and xwOBA are both right around league average and he is striking out almost a batter per inning with a solid walk rate.
Pick – ARIZ 1st 5 and full game MLs
SEA @ BOS
After getting blasted by the Red Sox 14-7 on Monday night, the Mariner returning the favor pasting the Red Sox 10-6 last night. .
Starting Pitchers
|
4:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
SEA
|
Kirby - R (8-7)
|
(16/22)
|
(5/22)
|
0.98
|
3.03
|
3.20
|
2.69
|
3.31
|
3.31
|
0.265
|
0.283
|
24.8%
|
2..7%
|
|
BOS
|
Bello - R (10-5)
|
(8/19)
|
(11/19(
|
1.44
|
5.27
|
4.68
|
4.57
|
3.68
|
3.95
|
0.345
|
0.337
|
21.7%
|
8.1%
|
Edge - SEA
Bullpens
N/A 0 This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
SEA
|
3.88
|
28
|
0.296
|
27
|
95
|
20
|
0.152
|
17
|
9.0%
|
4
|
41.6%
|
3
|
9.3%
|
6
|
27.8%
|
30
|
|
BOS
|
4.89
|
6
|
0.330
|
4
|
108
|
9
|
0.179
|
4
|
8.1%
|
16
|
41.2%
|
6
|
8.8%
|
8
|
24.9%
|
27
|
Edge – BOS
Conclusion: The Mariner restored my confidence in them last night. The Mriners offense seems to have piched up some after the moves that they made at the trade deadline, but it’s way too early to know that for sure. The Red Sox ae the better itting team, but the Mariners have the better starting pitcher.
George Kirby has now started 22 games with 16 grading as above average and just 6 grading as below. The 26-year-old right-hander reeled off his 9th straight quality start last Wednesday. It was his 15th of the season. Kirby’s WHIP is a stellar 0.98 and his 3.03 ERA is also very good with ERA metrics that are all totally consistent with his ERA. He is striking out just under batter per innings with an unbelievably low 2.57 walk rate. Kirby’s not beating himself. All he needs is a few runs to work with.
After a solid 2023 season in which he was probably the Red Sox’s best starting pitcher, Brayan Bello has struggled this season. He has now started 19 games for the Red Sox with just 8 grading as above average and 11 grading as below. Bello has been tagged for at least 3 runs in 11 of his last 13 starts.. His overall WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics are all very mediocre or worse with an above league average wOBA and xwOBA.
This is far from a sure thing because I still don’ trust the Mariners to hit. But if Kirby is anywhere near his usual self, a few runs will suffice.
Pick – SEA 1st 5 ML in a side bet