For what it’s worth, after five straight good days, I got a huge reality check last night. I was very pressed for time so I gave the stats a quick look and bet what I liked without giving it anymore thought. I probably should have been a little more selective. My two bets on the Giants come immediately to mind. I think that I probably overvalued the Giants, because of that impressive swepe of the visiting Rockies over the weekend. The Rockies ae atrocious away from Coors and the Giants just did what they should have done. I’m usually smarter than that, but apparently not yesterday.
Of the twelve sides that I used on my parlay card, six won and six lost. I won two of the five sides that I bet and lost three. I finished the day -39.76 units. That now leaves -45.75 units for the season. Damn!
Here’s my Wednesday card.
|
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
TB ML
|
119
|
2
|
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
125
|
2
|
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
BALT ML
|
121
|
2
|
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
137
|
2
|
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
128
|
2
|
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
138
|
2
|
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
135
|
2
|
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
146
|
2
|
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
CIN M
|
152
|
2
|
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
125
|
2
|
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
122
|
2
|
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
125
|
2
|
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
123
|
2
|
|
|
TB ML
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
116
|
2
|
|
|
TB ML
|
BALT ML
|
116
|
2
|
|
|
TB ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
131
|
2
|
|
|
TB ML
|
KC ML
|
123
|
2
|
|
|
TB ML
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
132
|
2
|
|
|
TB ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
130
|
2
|
|
|
TB ML
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
141
|
2
|
|
|
TB ML
|
CIN M
|
146
|
2
|
|
|
TB ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
119
|
2
|
|
|
TB ML
|
HOU ML
|
116
|
2
|
|
|
TB ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
119
|
2
|
|
|
TB ML
|
SF ML
|
117
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
BALT ML
|
121
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
137
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
128
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
138
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
135
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
146
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
CIN M
|
152
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
125
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
122
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
125
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
124
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
133
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
KC ML
|
125
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
134
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
131
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
147
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
CIN M
|
148
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
121
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
HOU ML
|
118
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
121
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
SF ML
|
119
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
141
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
151
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
148
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
160
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
CIN M
|
166
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
137
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
134
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
137
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
135
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
142
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
139
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
151
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
CIN M
|
157
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
128
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
HOU ML
|
126
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
128
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
SF ML
|
127
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
15-
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
161
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
CIN M
|
167
|
|
|
Sides
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
138
|
|
|
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
135
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
138
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
136
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ ML
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
158
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ ML
|
CIN M
|
164
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
135
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ ML
|
HOU ML
|
132
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
135
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ ML
|
SF ML
|
133
|
2
|
|
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
CIN M
|
177
|
2
|
|
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
146
|
2
|
|
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
143
|
2
|
|
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
146
|
2
|
|
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
144
|
2
|
|
|
CIN M
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
152
|
2
|
|
|
CIN M
|
HOU ML
|
149
|
2
|
|
|
CIN M
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
152
|
2
|
|
|
CIN M
|
SF ML
|
150
|
2
|
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
122
|
2
|
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
4-May
|
2
|
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
123
|
2
|
|
|
HOU ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
122
|
3
|
|
|
HOU ML
|
SF ML
|
120
|
3
|
|
|
|
|
-115
|
3
|
|
Sides
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
|
-118
|
|
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
|
-120
|
2
|
|
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
|
|
2
|
I’ll post the later games in a bit
MIA @ TB
The Rays blew out the Marlin 9-3 yesterday in the firt game of this Florida series.
Starting Pitchers
|
12:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
MIA
|
Munoz - R (1-5)
|
(4/11)
|
(7/11)
|
1.41
|
5.61
|
6.32
|
7.03
|
5.45
|
5.22
|
0.362
|
0.383
|
18.6%
|
11.5%
|
|
TB
|
Bradley - R (6-4)
|
(12/14)
|
(2/14)
|
1.01
|
2.43
|
3.47
|
3.40
|
3.26
|
3.32
|
0.258
|
0.294
|
30.0%
|
8.4%
|
Edge – TB big
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
MIA
|
25
|
23
|
20
|
19
|
69.8%
|
20
|
0.50
|
15
|
0.229
|
16
|
1.25
|
10
|
3.68
|
9
|
23.4%
|
14
|
8.9%
|
14
|
|
TB
|
31
|
19
|
34
|
17
|
70.9%
|
13
|
0.55
|
25
|
0.231
|
17
|
1.27
|
15
|
4.23
|
21
|
22.3%
|
21
|
9.1%
|
16
|
Edge – None
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
MIA
|
3.61
|
29
|
0.286
|
29
|
82
|
28
|
0.125
|
29
|
6.2%
|
30
|
36.9%
|
22
|
7.0%
|
24
|
22.6%
|
17
|
|
TB
|
4.02
|
27
|
0.302
|
22
|
99
|
15
|
0.139
|
26
|
8.8%
|
7
|
36.3%
|
26
|
7.6%
|
16
|
23.9%
|
22
|
Conclusion: Both of these teams were heavy sellers at the trade deadline and neither will contend for a playoff spot this season. Both are lousy hitting teams, but the state say that the Marlins are worse. Neither team has a good bullpen either. That leaves the two starting pitchers and the Rays should have a big edge there.
Roddery Munoz doesn’t have much to offer as a starting pitcher. He has now started 11 games for the Marlins with 34grading as above average and 7 grading as below. The right-hander has a high WHIP, ERA, ERA metrics, wOBA, and xwOBA with a pedestrian K rate and very high walk rate.
Taj Bradley has pitched really well for the Rays with 12 of his 14 starts grading as above average and just 2 grading as below. Bradley’s stat profile is across the board much better than Munoz’s.
Pick – TB 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
TOR @ BALT
The Orioes trounced the Blue Jay 6-2 yesterdy, after splitting a doubleheader on Monday with the O’s winning the early game 11-5 and the Jays winning the late game 8-4.
Starting Pitchers
|
12:35
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
TOR
|
Espino - R (0-0)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALT
|
Rodriguez - R (12-4(
|
(14/19)
|
(4/19
|
1.23
|
3.82
|
3.89
|
3.63
|
3.58
|
2.58
|
0.309
|
0.310
|
26.3%
|
7.1%
|
Edge – BALT
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
TOR
|
17
|
15
|
25
|
13
|
68.5%
|
25
|
0.49
|
12
|
0.248
|
23
|
1.37
|
26
|
5.03
|
29
|
20.0%
|
27
|
9.1%
|
16
|
|
BALT
|
21
|
14
|
33
|
16
|
68.1%
|
26
|
0.56
|
27
|
0.218
|
3
|
1.18
|
4
|
3.92
|
13
|
23.9%
|
11
|
8.8%
|
12
|
Edge – BALT
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
TOR
|
4.14
|
23
|
0.305
|
18
|
98
|
16
|
0.143
|
21
|
8.7%
|
9
|
36.5%
|
25
|
7.1%
|
23
|
19.7%
|
4
|
|
BALT
|
5.02
|
2
|
0.331
|
3
|
117
|
3
|
0.198
|
1
|
7.5%
|
24
|
43.0%
|
2
|
9.7%
|
3
|
21.4%
|
12
|
Edge – BALT
Conclusion: For a while the Orioles wreen’t playing their best ball, but a visit by the Blue Jays seems to have cured that. The O’s have all the edges here. They are the much better hitting team. Their bullpen might well be suspect, but the Jays pen is statistically worse. That leave the two starting pitchers and the O’s have a big edge there as well.
Espino was called up from AAA Buffalo to start for the Blue Jays.
The 37-year-old righty will be back with the Blue Jays for the first time since April and is slated to make his first MLB start since 2022. He's been a full-time startedduring his stay with Buffalo this season, logging a 1.47 WHIP and 5.09 ERA, with a 36/18 K/BB ratio in 53 innings. Espino hasn't gone more than four innings in any of his three starts with Buffalo since returning from a brief stint on the IL earlier in July.
Grayson Rodriguez has now started 19 games with 14 grading as above average, 1 grading as average and just 4 grading as below. His WHIP, ERA , ERA metrics, wOBA and xwOBA are all good and he’s also striking out over a batter per inning.
Pick – BALT 1st 5 and full game MLs
MINN @ NYM
The Mets won the first game of this series 2-0 with a strong outing from Sean Manaea.
Starting Pitchers
|
1:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
MINN
|
Lopez - R (9-7)
|
(12/21)
|
(9/21)
|
1.14
|
4.73
|
3.45
|
3.70
|
3.20
|
3.22
|
0.304
|
0.293
|
27.7%
|
5.1%
|
|
NYM
|
Severino - R (7-3)
|
(11/20
|
(9/20(
|
2.20
|
3.58
|
3.76
|
4.16
|
4.37
|
4.49
|
0.291
|
0.305
|
18.7%
|
8.3%
|
Edge – NINN
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 oly bet
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
MINN
|
4.83
|
8
|
0.326
|
5
|
112
|
5
|
0.173
|
5
|
7.9%
|
17
|
38.4%
|
17
|
8.3%
|
10
|
21.0%
|
10
|
|
NYM
|
4.92
|
5
|
0.325
|
7
|
114
|
4
|
0.172
|
6
|
8.5%
|
11
|
40.6%
|
7
|
9.5%
|
4
|
21.3%
|
11
|
Edge – None
Conclusion: Offensively these two teams are incredibly close and I can’t give either one any edge. That leavesthe two starting pitchers.
Pablo Lopez has struggled with consistency this season, especially early on. He has now started 21 games with 12 grading as above average and 9 grading as below. Lopez’s ERA is also extremely high, but his ERA metrics are all 1-2 runs lower than his bloated ERA. His wOBA and xwOBA ae also solid. That tells me that Lopez has been nowhere near as bad as his ERA would suggest and that we should continue to see positive regression from him going forward. Lopez also is carrying be better K rate and lower wall rate than Severino with a beeter 47.4% walk rate.
Luis Severino’s overall stats tell us that he has pitched decently for the Mets this season with 11 of his 20 starts grading as above average and 9 grading as below His overall WHIP and ERA are both solid and his ERA metrics, while mostly higher than his ERA, aremostly mediocre with a below league average wOBA and xwOBA, but a pedestrian K rate and a fairly high walk rate for a guy who’s not generating a lot of Ks.
Lopez has been the better pitcher
Pick – MINN 1st 5 ML in a side bet
ATL @ MIL
The Braves beat the Brewers 5-1 last night, after losing the first game of this series 8-3 on Monday.
Sarting Pitchers
|
2:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOB3
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
ATL
|
Sale - L (13-3)
|
(17/19)
|
(2/19)
|
0.92
|
2.68
|
2.63
|
2.30
|
2.51
|
2.66
|
0.248
|
0.257
|
32.7%
|
5.5%
|
|
MIL
|
Peralta - R (6-6)
|
(13/21)
|
)8/21)
|
1.21
|
3.94
|
3.76
|
3.83
|
3.62
|
0.35
|
0.300
|
0.305
|
29.5%
|
8.9%
|
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
ATL
|
4.23
|
20
|
0.308
|
15
|
96
|
19
|
0.166
|
8
|
7.5%
|
24
|
43.1%
|
1
|
9.9%
|
2
|
24.4%
|
25
|
|
MIL
|
4.77
|
9
|
0.322
|
9
|
107
|
11
|
0.147
|
19
|
9.6%
|
3
|
39.0%
|
13
|
7.0%
|
24
|
22.7%
|
19
|
Edge – MIL
Conclusion: Both of these team should get to the playoffs this season. The Brewers are obviously the better hitting team. That’s been the Braves’ weakness. However, the Brave have the better starting pitcher.
Chris Sale is experiencing an amazing renaissance of sorts in Atlanta. The veteran left-hander has now delivered 17 above average starts in his 19 outings with just 2 below average ones. His WHIP, ERA, ERA metrics, wOBA and xwOBA are all outstanding with an elite K rate and a very low walk rate. Sale’s having one hell of a fine season. and I’m not about to bet against him.
Freddy Peralta has also been OK, but not as good or as consistent and I expected. His stat profile is good, but patles in comparison to Sale’s.
For five innings, I’ll take Sale all day.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 ML
KC @ CHI WS
The Royals again flirted with disaster before pulling out aa 403 win late last night, after an 8-5 win over the White Sox on Monday night on Bobby Witt Jr.’ 8th inning grand slam.
Starting Pitchers
|
2:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
KC
|
Singer - R (7-6)
|
(11/21)
|
(7/21_
|
1.18
|
2.82
|
4.65
|
3.83
|
3.61
|
3.83
|
0.302
|
0.336
|
22.7%
|
7.3%
|
|
CHI WS
|
Thorpe - R (3-2)
|
(5/8)
|
(2/8)
|
1.19
|
4.81
|
4.71
|
5.73
|
5.43
|
5.54
|
0.306
|
..3438
|
15.1%
|
11.4%
|
Edge – KC
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
KC
|
18
|
16
|
25
|
14
|
70.9%
|
13
|
0.49
|
12
|
0.254
|
29
|
1.40
|
28
|
4.30
|
24
|
18.6%
|
29
|
9.4%
|
20
|
|
CHI WS
|
8
|
35
|
17
|
26
|
67.9%
|
27
|
0.46
|
6
|
0.250
|
25
|
1.49
|
29
|
4.79
|
28
|
22.7%
|
19
|
11.3%
|
30
|
Edge – KC
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
KC
|
4.65
|
11
|
0.312
|
12
|
97
|
18
|
0.158
|
12
|
7.1%
|
28
|
39.2%
|
12
|
7.7%
|
13
|
18.4%
|
2
|
|
CHI WS
|
3.07
|
30
|
0.274
|
30
|
74
|
30
|
0.125
|
29
|
6.9%
|
29
|
35.9%
|
28
|
6.7%
|
27
|
24.1%
|
23
|
Edge – KC
Conclusion: The Royals are flat out a hell of a lot better than the White Sox and they have every edge again today. Of course, that’s not surprising considering that the White Sox are by far the worst team in the league, yet the Royals have struggled early in both games.
Brady Singer has now started 21 games for the Royals with 11 grading as above average and 7 grading as below. His emtore stat profile is better than Drew Thorpe’s with a much larger sample size.
The White Sox called up Drew Thorpe from AA Birmingham earlier this season. On the plus side, he actually has a winning record, a rarity for a White Sox starting pitcher. He also has 6 above average starts to just 2 below average ones in his 8 outing with a solid WHIP and ERA, and a below league average wOBA an d xwOBA. The negatives are tha his ERA metrics are mostly much higher than his ERA and he’s carrying a piss-poor K rate.
Pick – KC 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays