For what it’s worth, I’m now up to five straight good days. Yesterday, I was just looking to not give back what I had won on Sunday and keep a good thing going a little longer. Mission accomplished.
Of the seven sides that I used on my parlay card,5 won, 1 pushed and 1 lost. I split the two side bets that I placed. I finished the day +6.91 units. That now leaves +4.01 units for the season. I’m now actually slightly ahead.
The one loser on my parlay card was the Pirate 1st 5. The Pirates lost their 1st 5 2-1but rallied late or a 5-3 full game win. For the second straight time, Paul Skenes got minimal run support and it cost him. .
I won 1st 5 and full game MLs on my parlay card with the Orioles and Guardians as well as the Royals full game. I also won my side bet on the Rangers 1st 5.
Here’s my Tuesday card.
|
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
BALT ML
|
132
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
TEX 1st 5 ML
|
167
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
142
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
137
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
139
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
134
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
139
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
148
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
161
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
142
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
139
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
TEX 1st 5 ML
|
167
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
142
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
KC ML
|
137
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
139
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
HOU ML
|
134
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
139
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
148
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
161
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
142
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
SF ML
|
139
|
2
|
|
|
TEX 1st 5 ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
178
|
2
|
|
|
TEX 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
172
|
2
|
|
|
TEX 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
175
|
2
|
|
|
TEX 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
169
|
2
|
|
|
TEX 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
175
|
2
|
|
|
TEX 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
185
|
2
|
|
|
TEX 1st 5 ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
200
|
2
|
|
|
TEX 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
`78
|
|
|
|
TEX 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
175
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
147
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
149
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
144
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
140
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
158
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
172
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
152
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
149
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
144
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
HOU ML
|
139
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
144
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
153
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
166
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
147
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
SF ML
|
144
|
2
|
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
141
|
2
|
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
146
|
2
|
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
155
|
2
|
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
169
|
2
|
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
146
|
2
|
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
149
|
2
|
|
|
HOU ML
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
144
|
2
|
|
|
HOU ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
153
|
2
|
|
|
HOU ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
166
|
2
|
|
|
HOU ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
144
|
2
|
|
|
HOU ML
|
SF ML
|
147
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
155
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
169
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
149
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
156
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
179
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
158
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ ML
|
SF ML
|
155
|
2
|
|
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
172
|
2
|
|
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
169
|
2
|
|
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
129
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
CHI C 1st 5 ML
|
|
-120
|
2
|
|
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
|
-104
|
2
|
|
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
|
-118
|
2
|
|
|
TEX ML
|
|
-115
|
2
|
|
|
LAD ML
|
|
-127
|
2
|
Today, I’m pressed for time so we’ll let the stats do the talking for me. Here are the early evening games I’ll post the late games later.
TOR @ BALT
These two teams split a doubleheader yesterday with the O’s winning the early game 11-5 and the Jays inning the late game 8-4.
Starting Pitchers
|
6:35
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
TOR
|
Bassit - R(8-9)
|
(11/21)
|
(10/21)
|
1.41
|
3.78
|
4.26
|
3.91
|
4.23
|
4.32
|
0.317
|
0.323
|
21.5%
|
9.0%
|
|
BALT
|
Burnes - R *10-4)
|
(19/21)
|
(2/21)
|
1.94
|
2.45
|
3.11
|
3.48
|
3.42
|
3.64
|
0.265
|
0.279
|
23.0%
|
5.7%
|
Edge – BALT
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
TOR
|
17
|
15
|
25
|
13
|
68.5%
|
25
|
0.49
|
12
|
0.248
|
23
|
1.37
|
26
|
5.03
|
29
|
20.0%
|
27
|
9.1%
|
16
|
|
BALT
|
21
|
14
|
33
|
16
|
68.1%
|
26
|
0.56
|
27
|
0.218
|
3
|
1.18
|
4
|
3.92
|
13
|
23.9%
|
11
|
8.8%
|
12
|
Edge – BALT
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
TOR
|
4.14
|
23
|
0.305
|
18
|
98
|
16
|
0.143
|
21
|
8.7%
|
9
|
36.5%
|
25
|
7.1%
|
23
|
19.7%
|
4
|
|
BALT
|
5.02
|
2
|
0.331
|
3
|
117
|
3
|
0.198
|
1
|
7.5%
|
24
|
43.0%
|
2
|
9.7%
|
3
|
21.4%
|
12
|
Edge – BALT
Conclusion: The Orioles haven’t been playing their best ball for a while now, but they have all the edges here.
Pick – BALT 1st 5 and full game MLs
CHI C @ CIN
The Reds won he first game of this series 7-1 yesterday.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
CHI C
|
Steele- L (2-4)
|
(11/16)
|
(5/16)
|
1.06
|
3.08
|
3.04
|
3.19
|
3.72
|
3.79
|
0.267
|
0.276
|
23.1%
|
5.8%
|
|
CIN
|
Santilian - R (0-0)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – CHI C
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
CHI C
|
4.08
|
25
|
0.301
|
23
|
94
|
21
|
0.142
|
22
|
8.9%
|
6
|
38.0%
|
20
|
7.7%
|
13
|
23.3%
|
20
|
|
CIN
|
4.41
|
15
|
0.304
|
19
|
90
|
26
|
0.164
|
10
|
8.2%
|
15
|
35.6%
|
29
|
7.2%
|
20
|
24.6%
|
26
|
Edge – CIN
Conclusion: Steele v Santilioan should be a mismatch
Pick – CHI C 1st 5 ML
SEA @ BOS
The Red Sox blasted the Mariners 14-7 last night.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
SEA
|
Castillo - R (8-10)
|
(15/22)
|
(7/22)
|
1.16
|
3.38
|
3.86
|
3.64
|
3.80
|
4.86
|
0.295
|
0.309
|
23.7%
|
7.0%
|
|
BOS
|
Paxton - L (8-2)
|
(8/18_
|
(10/18_
|
1.46
|
4.43
|
4.87
|
4.97
|
5.31
|
5.47
|
0.325
|
0.343
|
16.4%
|
12.3%
|
Edge - SEA
Bullpens
N/A 0 This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
SEA
|
3.88
|
28
|
0.296
|
27
|
95
|
20
|
0.152
|
17
|
9.0%
|
4
|
41.6%
|
3
|
9.3%
|
6
|
27.8%
|
30
|
|
BOS
|
4.89
|
6
|
0.330
|
4
|
108
|
9
|
0.179
|
4
|
8.1%
|
16
|
41.2%
|
6
|
8.8%
|
8
|
24.9%
|
27
|
Edge – BOS
Conclusion: The Mariner burned me badly last night, but I have no faith in James Paxton. Luis Castillo is much better
This is far from a sure thing. Beating up on the white Sox proves nothing, but I’m going back to the well.
Pick – SEA 1st 5 ML
TEX @ STL
The Rangers beat the Cards 6-3 last night.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:45
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
TEX
|
Scherzer - R (2-3)
|
(4/7)
|
(2/7)
|
1.08
|
3.57
|
3.23
|
3.81
|
3.83
|
3.80
|
0.296
|
0.284
|
23.4%
|
5.0%
|
|
STL
|
Lynn - R (5-4)
|
(8/20)
|
(12/20)
|
1.39
|
4.17
|
4.94
|
4.40
|
4.41
|
4.41
|
0.322
|
0.345
|
21.0%
|
8.9%
|
Edge – TEX
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
TEX
|
20
|
17
|
23
|
13
|
73.0%
|
8
|
0.53
|
21
|
0.225
|
9
|
1.32
|
23
|
4.25
|
23
|
24.4%
|
7
|
11.0%
|
29
|
|
STL
|
18
|
19
|
37
|
16
|
72.1%
|
12
|
0.67
|
30
|
0.242
|
21
|
1.26
|
12
|
3.67
|
8
|
21.6%
|
25
|
8.0%
|
5
|
Edge – None
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
TEX
|
4.28
|
16
|
0.304
|
19
|
93
|
22
|
0.141
|
25
|
8.5%
|
11
|
39.0%
|
13
|
7.2%
|
20
|
20.6%
|
8
|
|
STL
|
4.11
|
24
|
0.304
|
19
|
98
|
16
|
0.142
|
22
|
7.6%
|
22
|
36.6%
|
24
|
6.7%
|
27
|
22.2%
|
15
|
Edge – TEX
Conclusion:
Conclusion: The Rangersare better than the Cards. And Max Scherzer is better than Lance Lynn.
Pick – TEX 1st 5 and full game MLs
KC @ CHI WS
The Royals flirted with disaster before pulling out an 8-5 win over the White Sox last night on Bobby Witt Jr.’ 8th inning grad slam.
Starting Pitchers
|
8:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
KC
|
Wacha - R (7-6)
|
(12/18)
|
(6/18_
|
1.22
|
3.65
|
4.06
|
3.95
|
4.08
|
4.19
|
0.308
|
0.316
|
20.6%
|
6.9%
|
|
CHI WS
|
Cannon - R (1-5)
|
(5/10)
|
(5/1)
|
1.35
|
4.43
|
4.32
|
4.17
|
4.28
|
4.47
|
0.340
|
0.326
|
16.5%
|
5.6%
|
Edge – KC
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
KC
|
18
|
16
|
25
|
14
|
70.9%
|
13
|
0.49
|
12
|
0.254
|
29
|
1.40
|
28
|
4.30
|
24
|
18.6%
|
29
|
9.4%
|
20
|
|
CHI WS
|
8
|
35
|
17
|
26
|
67.9%
|
27
|
0.46
|
6
|
0.250
|
25
|
1.49
|
29
|
4.79
|
28
|
22.7%
|
19
|
11.3%
|
30
|
Edge – KC
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
KC
|
4.65
|
11
|
0.312
|
12
|
97
|
18
|
0.158
|
12
|
7.1%
|
28
|
39.2%
|
12
|
7.7%
|
13
|
18.4%
|
2
|
|
CHI WS
|
3.07
|
30
|
0.274
|
30
|
74
|
30
|
0.125
|
29
|
6.9%
|
29
|
35.9%
|
28
|
6.7%
|
27
|
24.1%
|
23
|
Edge – KC
Conclusion: The Royals are flat out a hell of a lot better than the White Sox. Of course that’s not surprising considering that the White Sox are by far the worst team in the league.
Pick – KC 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
PITT @ HOU
The Pirates rallied late for a 5-3 win last night.
Starting Pitchers
|
8:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB %
|
|
PITT
|
Falter - L (4-7)
|
(9/17)
|
(7/17)
|
1.20
|
4.08
|
4.97
|
4.46
|
4.74
|
4.88
|
0.303
|
0.346
|
16.7%
|
7.7%
|
|
HOU
|
Brown - R (9-6)
|
(11/20)
|
(9/20)
|
1.37
|
4.00
|
3.40
|
3.94
|
3.61
|
3.80
|
0.321
|
0.291
|
25.0%
|
0.9%
|
Edge – HOU
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
PITT
|
24
|
20
|
27
|
17
|
67.6%
|
28
|
0.46
|
6
|
0.240
|
20
|
1.36
|
25
|
4.31
|
25
|
23.6%
|
13
|
9.7%
|
22
|
|
HOU
|
18
|
19
|
25
|
15
|
75.4%
|
4
|
0.51
|
17
|
0.228
|
14
|
1.27
|
15
|
3.75
|
11
|
24.3%
|
9
|
9.7%
|
22
|
Edge - HOU
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
PITT
|
4.16
|
21
|
0.294
|
28
|
87
|
27
|
0.138
|
27
|
8.3%
|
14
|
40.5%
|
8
|
8.5%
|
9
|
24.2%
|
24
|
|
HOU
|
4.67
|
10
|
0.321
|
10
|
109
|
8
|
0.157
|
13
|
7.2%
|
27
|
38.3%
|
18
|
7.5%
|
18
|
18.8%
|
3
|
Edge – HOU
Conclusion: The Astros are obviously the better team here, and I also think that they have the better starting pitcher.Pick – HOU 1st 5 and full game MLs