With the Tigers scratching Jack Flaherty and opting for a bullpen game with Beau Brieske as the opener, everything changes including my card. Here is my revised Monday card.
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ML Parlays
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Team #1
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Team #2
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Odds
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BALT 1st 5 ML
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BALT ML
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`153
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BALT 1st 5 ML
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KC 1st 5 ML
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155
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BALT 1st 5 ML
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KC ML
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153
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BALT 1st 5 ML
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PITT 1st 5 ML
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172
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BALT ML
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KC 1st 5 ML
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156
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BALT ML
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KC ML
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155
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BALT ML
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PITT 1st 5 ML
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173
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CLEV 1st 5 ML
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KC 1st 5 ML
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162
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CLEV 1st 5 ML
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KC ML
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161
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CLEV 1st 5 ML
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PITT 1st 5 ML
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179
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CLEV ML
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KC 1st 5 ML
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166
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CLEV ML
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KC ML
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165
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CLEV ML
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PITT 1st 5 ML
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184
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KC 1st 5 ML
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KC ML
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157
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KC 1st 5 ML
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PITT 1st 5 ML
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175
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KC ML
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PITT 1st 5 ML
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174
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Sides
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SEA 1st 5 ML
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105
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TEX 1st 5 ML
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-113
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Here are break down of the next two games including my revised CLEV @ DET breakdown. I’ll post the final two in a bit
CLEV @ DET
In a battle of division leaders, the Guardians took two of three from the Phils in Philly over the weekend, while the Tigers dropped two of three to the visiting Twins.
Starting Pitchers
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6:40
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SP
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GS+
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GS-
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WHIP
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ERA
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xERA
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FIP
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xFIP
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SIERA
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wOBA
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xwOBA
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K%
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BB%
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CLEV
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Bibee - R (8-4)
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(14/21)
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(7/21)
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1.09
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3.50
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3.38
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3.41
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3.55
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3.40
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0.293
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0.291
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27.6%
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6.6%
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DET
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Brieske - R (1-1)
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(0/1)
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(1/1)
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1.25
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4.33
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3.41
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3.12
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3.99
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3.63
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0.295
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0.292
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24.3%
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8.8%
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Edge – CLEV
Bullpens
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Team
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W
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L
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SV
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BS
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LOB%
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Rk
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R/IP
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Rk
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AVG
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Rk
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WHIP
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Rk
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ERA
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Rk
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K%
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Rk
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BB%
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Rk
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CLEV
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29
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9
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36
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12
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78.5%
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2
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0.32
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1
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0.196
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1
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1.04
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1
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2.50
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1
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26.9%
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2
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8.3%
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8
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DET
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24
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23
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23
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18
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69.5%
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2
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0.51
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19
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0.231
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16
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1.25
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12
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4.06
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18
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22.3%
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21
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8.7%
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11
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Edge – CLEV big
Offenses
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Team
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RPG
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Rk
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wOBA
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Rk
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wRC+
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Rk
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ISO
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Rk
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BB%
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Rk
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HH%
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Rk
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Bar%
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Rk
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K%
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Rk
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CLEV
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4.55
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13
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0.310
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13
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103
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12
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0.157
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14
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8.0%
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17
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34.7%
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30
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6.0%
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29
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20.0%
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4
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DET
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4.25
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17
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0.299
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24
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93
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22
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0.155
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16
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7.6%
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22
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38.0%
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20
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7.6%
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16
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23.3%
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20
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Edge – CLEV
Conclusion: The Guardians are the better team in this matchup. Thtat’s why they lead the Tigers by 12 games in the AL Central with a +70 run differential. Although the Guardians aren’t hitting as well as they did earlier in the season, they still hit much better than the Tigers, or at least that’s what the stats say. The Guardians also have the much better bullpen. The stats make a pretty compelling case that the Guardians; pen might be the best in the league and certainly far superior to the Tigers’ pen. That leaves the two starting pitchers, and with Beau Brieske suddenly replacing Jack Flaherty today, the Guardians should have a big edge there as well.
Tanner Bibee has now started 21 games for the Guardians with 14 grading as above average and 7 grading as below. His 1.09 WHIP and 3.50 ERA are both good and Bibee’s ERA metrics are all even slightly lower than his ERA. His wOBA and xwOB K rate are also both lower than league average with a fine K rate and a low walk rate.
While I haven’t definitively heard anything, the fact that Flaherty was suddenly pulled form this start tends to support the speculation that the Tigers are about to trade him.
Beau Brieske will serve as the Tigers' opener for this game. Jack Flaherty had been scheduled to start, but the Tigers apparently opted to scratch him so as not to risk exposing him to an injury that might jeopardize a trade before Tuesday's deadline. The Tigers will thus turn to Brieske to make just his second start of the season, but like his first start back on July 14 against the Dodgers, he probably won't be counted on to cover more than an inning or two. Bryan Sammons was called up from AAA Toledo on Monday and could be used as a bulk reliever behind Brieske.
Bibee is having a solid season and the Guardians are the better team.
Pick – CLEV 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
TEX @ STL
The Rangers, who had been playing well, were swept over the weekend in a three-game series at the Blue Jays. Amazingly, they are still only 4.5 games behind the Astros in the AL West and 6 out in the AL wild card race. The Cards drpped two of three to the Nats in DC and now trail the Brewers by 6 games in the NL Central and are still just one game out in the NL wild card race.
Starting Pitchers
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7:45
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SP
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GS+
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GS-
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WHIP
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ERA
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xERA
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FIP
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xFIP
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SIERA
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wOBA
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xwOBA
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K%
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BB%
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TEX
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Eovaldi - R (7-4)
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(12/18)
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(6/18)
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1.04
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3.31
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3.76
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3.78
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3.27
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3.45
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0.279
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0.306
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24.6%
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6.1%
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STL
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Pallante - R (4-4)
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(6/9)
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(3/9)
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1.33
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3.92
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3.66
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3.95
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3.91
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4.03
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0.309
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0.302
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18.3%
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8.7%
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Edge – TEX
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
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Team
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RPG
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Rk
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wOBA
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Rk
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wRC+
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Rk
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ISO
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Rk
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BB%
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Rk
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HH%
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Rk
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Bar%
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Rk
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K%
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Rk
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TEX
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4.26
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16
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0.304
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20
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94
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21
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0.142
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21
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8.6%
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11
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38.7%
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15
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7.2%
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21
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20.7%
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6
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STL
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4.12
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23
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0.305
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19
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99
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16
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0.141
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24
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7.7%
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20
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36.3%
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25
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6.7%
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27
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22.3%
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15
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Edge – TEX, but closer than I expected
Conclusion: The Rangers would seem to have a small edge when it comes to hitting, but this bet is all about the starting pitchers.
Nate Eovaldi has now started 18 games for the Rangers with 12 grading as above average and 5 grading as below. His WHIPand ERA are good as is the rest of his stat profile, which is mostly better than Andre Pallante’s.
Pallante has mostly worked out of the Cards’ bullpen and has only started 9 games with 6 grading as above average and 3 grading as below. His stat profile is mostly solid, but not as good as Eovaldi’s.
Eovaldi is the proven commodity here and I’ll gladly take him for five innings here.
Pick – TEX 1st 5 in a side bet