For what it’s worth, after two straight good days on Thursday and Friday, I was just looking to keep it going a little longer yesterday. It wasn’t easy because I only liked three games, but I managed to do it.
I finished the day +8.96 units. That leaves me a still ugly -57.12 units for the season, but I at least picked up another small chunk of what I had lost. I’ll consider that to be improvement.
The one loser on my very small parlay card was the Tigers 1st 5 ML. Tarik Skubal gave up three quick hits, including a two-run HR, in the 1st before settling down, but from that point on held the Twins to two singles over the next six innings, while striking out 8. The Tigers got 1 back in the bottom of the 1st, but didn’t score again until the 6th to take a 3-2 lead on the way to a 7-2 win. Unfortunately, it was an inning too late for me.
I won with the Giants 1st 5 and full game MLs on my parlay card, as Blake Snell, the reigning NL Cy Young award winner (we tend to forget that fact), struck out a career-high 15 over six innings, and Patrick Bailey hit a tiebreaking, two-run double in the the 7th as the Giants again beat the Rockies 4-1 in the opening game of their doubleheader last night.
I also won with the Diamondbacks 1st 5 and full game MLs on my parlay card as they beat the visiting Pirates 9-5 last night. Diamondback’s starter Brandon Pfaadt struggled some giving up a solo HR in the 4th and three more runs in the 5th to tie the game at 4-4, but was bailed out by the Diamndbcks’ explosive offense. Pirates starter Maro Gonzlez struggled even more, giving up a run in the 1st before escaping a bases-loaded jam. He then gave up a solo HR and a two-run shot in the 2nd to put the Diamondbacks up 4-1. Gonzales was lifted after giving up a single and a walk with one out in the 3rd.
It could have been better, but it was a pretty good day. We have a full slate of games today, so let’s get right to it. Here’s my Sunday card.
|
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
BALT ML
|
169
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
161
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
MINN ML
|
162
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
167
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
163
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
155
|
2
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
153
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
159
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
MINN ML
|
1161
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
166
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
KC ML
|
162
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
154
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
SF ML
|
152
|
2
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
MINN ML
|
153
|
2
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
158
|
2
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
154
|
2
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
147
|
2
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
144
|
2
|
|
|
MINN ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
159
|
2
|
|
|
MINN ML
|
KC ML
|
155
|
2
|
|
|
MINN ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
148
|
2
|
|
|
MINN ML
|
SF ML
|
145
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
160
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
152
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
150
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
149
|
2
|
|
|
KC ML
|
SF ML
|
146
|
2
|
|
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
139
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
|
-110
|
2
|
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
|
-110
|
2
|
|
|
LAA 1st 5 ML
|
|
-133
|
2
|
|
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
|
-112
|
2
|
Here are my very brief thoughts on the early games. I’ll post the late games later. The family is coming here for dinner today
CIN @ TB
The Rays beat the Reds 4-0 behind Zack Littell to even this series at one game apiece.
Starting Pitchers
|
11:35
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
CIN
|
Greene - R (7-4)
|
(13/20)
|
(5/20)
|
1.09
|
3.14
|
3.09
|
3.57
|
4.18
|
3.82
|
0.278
|
0.279
|
27.5%
|
9.9%
|
|
TB
|
Armstrong - R (2-2)
|
(2/6)
|
(4/6)
|
1.61
|
5.64
|
5.60
|
3.82
|
4.27
|
3.85
|
0.353
|
0.365
|
23.9%
|
9.3%
|
Edge - CIN
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
CIN
|
14
|
22
|
22
|
7
|
74.8%
|
5
|
0.43
|
4
|
0.229
|
14
|
1.22
|
8
|
3.48
|
5
|
24.8%
|
7
|
8.4%
|
10
|
|
TB
|
29
|
19
|
33
|
17
|
70.5%
|
15
|
0.55
|
25
|
0.234
|
18
|
1.29
|
19
|
4.37
|
25
|
22.0%
|
23
|
9.2%
|
16
|
Edge – CIN
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
CIN
|
4.41
|
14
|
0.307
|
16
|
93
|
22
|
0.166
|
8
|
8.3%
|
14
|
36.0%
|
26
|
7.4%
|
18
|
24.6%
|
26
|
|
TB
|
3.99
|
26
|
0.303
|
21
|
100
|
15
|
0.139
|
26
|
8.8%
|
8
|
36.4%
|
24
|
7.6%
|
16
|
24.0%
|
22
|
Edge – CIN, slight
Conclusion: The Reds are the better hitting team here and apprt to have the better bullen as well. However, the big mismatch here is the starting pitching matchup between Hunter Brown and Shawn Armstrong. The stats twell me that Brown has been the much better starting pitcher.
Pick – CIN 1st 5 ML in a side bet
SD @ BALT
The Padres beat the Orioles 9-4 yesterday, after winning 6-4 on Friday night to take a 2-0 series lead.
Starting Pitcjers
|
1:35
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
SD
|
Vasquez - R (3-5)
|
(5/14)
|
(9/14)
|
1.48
|
4.17
|
5.89
|
4.68
|
4.55
|
4.71
|
0.373
|
0.373
|
14.8%
|
5.1%
|
|
BALT
|
A Suarez - R (5-4)
|
(8/13_
|
(5/13)
|
1.33
|
3.48
|
4.26
|
3.64
|
4.60
|
4.62
|
0.311
|
0.324
|
18.6%
|
8.3%
|
Edge – BALT
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
SD
|
22
|
12
|
25
|
15
|
70.3%
|
16
|
0.50
|
15
|
0.243
|
23
|
1.27
|
15
|
4.19
|
20
|
23.2%
|
15
|
7.7%
|
3
|
|
BALT
|
20
|
14
|
32
|
16
|
68.5%
|
24
|
0.47
|
10
|
0.212
|
3
|
1.16
|
3
|
3.75
|
12
|
24.0%
|
11
|
9.1%
|
15
|
Edge – BA4T
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
SD
|
4.59
|
13
|
0.319
|
11
|
111
|
6
|
0.146
|
17
|
7.5%
|
24
|
38.2%
|
19
|
6.8%
|
26
|
18.0%
|
1
|
|
BALT
|
4.94
|
3
|
0.330
|
3
|
117
|
2
|
0.198
|
1
|
7.3%
|
26
|
42.9%
|
1
|
9.7%
|
2
|
21.4%
|
13
|
Edge – BALT
Conclusion: Despite blowing each of the first two games of this series, the O’s should be better than the Padres and the stats say that Albert Suarez has pitched better than Randy Vasquez. I think that the O’s salvage the final game of this series to hold onto 1st in the AL East.
Pick BALT 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
ATL @ NYM
The Braves beat the Mets 3-0 yesterday behind a fine out b\frpm Spencer Schwellenbach to even this series at one game apiece
Starting Pitchers
|
1:40
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
ATL
|
Lopez - R (7-4)
|
(11/18)
|
(5/18)
|
1.19
|
2.12
|
4.32
|
3.16
|
3.85
|
3.99
|
0.282
|
0.326
|
24.2%
|
8.7%
|
|
NYM
|
Peterson - L (5-0)
|
(4/9)
|
(5/9)
|
1.48
|
3.14
|
5.56
|
4.79
|
4.65
|
4.76
|
0.342
|
0.364
|
16.8%
|
10.7%
|
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
ATL
|
18
|
15
|
26
|
11
|
78.2%
|
3
|
0.37
|
2
|
0.226
|
10
|
1.15
|
2
|
2.93
|
2
|
25.0%
|
5
|
7.4%
|
1
|
|
NYM
|
28
|
20
|
28
|
16
|
68.8%
|
23
|
0.55
|
25
|
0.226
|
10
|
1.30
|
20
|
4.04
|
17
|
27.1%
|
1
|
10.6%
|
28
|
Edge – ATL
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
ATL
|
4.19
|
20
|
0.307
|
16
|
96
|
18
|
0.161
|
10
|
7.5%
|
24
|
42.9%
|
1
|
9.7%
|
2
|
24.1%
|
24
|
|
NYM
|
4.85
|
7
|
0.324
|
7
|
114
|
4
|
0.172
|
6
|
8.5%
|
12
|
40.8%
|
7
|
9.6%
|
4
|
21.2%
|
11
|
Edge – NYM
Conclusion: The Mets could be the better team here, but I’m, not at all sure about that. The stats say that they are certainly the better hitting team, but also tell us that the Braves have the better bullpen. The Braves also appear to have a big edge in the starting pitching matchup. Reynaldfo has struggled more in his recent start than he did earlier this season, but his stat profile is across the board still much better than David Peterson’s.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 ML
MINN @ DET
The Twins were beaten 7-2 yesterday by the Tigers and Tarik Skubal to even this series at one game apiece.
Starting Pitchers
|
1:40
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
MINN
|
Ober - R (9-5)
|
(12/19)
|
(7/19)
|
1.06
|
4.04
|
3.61
|
3.94
|
3.81
|
3.60
|
0.295
|
0.300
|
25.9%
|
5.9%
|
|
DET
|
Faedo 0 R (5-1)
|
(0/1)
|
(0/1)
|
1.29
|
3.47
|
4.01
|
4.65
|
3.99
|
3.92
|
0.310
|
0.316
|
21.0%
|
9.3%
|
Edge – MINN
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
MINN
|
24
|
18
|
30
|
14
|
69.7%
|
20
|
0.47
|
10
|
0.215
|
4
|
1.18
|
5
|
3.67
|
9
|
24.7%
|
8
|
8.8%
|
12
|
|
DET
|
24
|
23
|
23
|
18
|
69.5%
|
2
|
0.51
|
19
|
0.231
|
16
|
1.25
|
12
|
4.06
|
18
|
22.3%
|
21
|
8.7%
|
11
|
Edge - MINN
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
MINN
|
4.88
|
6
|
0.327
|
4
|
113
|
5
|
0.174
|
4
|
7.9%
|
18
|
38.5%
|
17
|
8.3%
|
10
|
21.0%
|
9
|
|
DET
|
4.27
|
18
|
0.299
|
24
|
93
|
22
|
0.155
|
16
|
7.6%
|
22
|
38.0%
|
20
|
7.6%
|
16
|
23.3%
|
20
|
Edge – MINN
Conclusion: The Twins are the better team here. They’re the better hitting team, averaging over a half a run per game more than the Tigers with a better stat profile across the board. Today they won’t have to contend with Tarik Skubal either and Bailey Ober has pitched better than Alex Faedom or at least that’s what the stats say
Pick – MINN 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
CHI C @ KC
The Cubs beat the Royals 8-4 yesterday to even this series at one game apiece.
Starting Pitchers
|
2:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
CHI C
|
Assad - R (4-3)
|
(11/18)
|
(7/28)
|
1.38
|
3.15
|
4.74
|
4.60
|
4.52
|
4.58
|
0.324
|
0.340
|
21.0%
|
10.6%
|
|
KC
|
Ragans - L (7-6)
|
(14/21)
|
(7/21)
|
1.15
|
3.23
|
3.30
|
2.74
|
3.27
|
3.35
|
0.276
|
0.288
|
29.1%
|
8.0%
|
Edge – KC
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
CHI C
|
25
|
25
|
23
|
20
|
72.3%
|
11
|
0.48
|
13
|
0.228
|
13
|
1.31
|
22
|
3.81
|
14
|
24.6%
|
9
|
10.5%
|
26
|
|
KC
|
17
|
16
|
24
|
14
|
71.0%
|
13
|
0.52
|
21
|
0.253
|
28
|
1.40
|
18
|
4.21
|
21
|
18.9%
|
29
|
9.6%
|
22
|
Edge – CHI C, but slight
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
CH1 C
|
4.08
|
24
|
0.302
|
22
|
95
|
20
|
0.142
|
21
|
9.0%
|
4
|
37.9%
|
21
|
7.8%
|
13
|
23.5%
|
21
|
|
KC
|
4.64
|
11
|
0.311
|
12
|
97
|
17
|
0.158
|
12
|
7.3%
|
26
|
39.5%
|
12
|
7.8%
|
13
|
18.6%
|
2
|
Edge – KC
Conclusion: The Ryls are the better team here. The stats say that they are the much betting hitting team and that Cole Ragans has pitched better than Jacier Assad, who got off to a fast start, but has taled off in a big way recently.
Pick – KC 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays