Rob Vinciletti: Friday MLB Totals System - Baseball - Forums

Posted: 07/18/2024 7:14 PM

At 6:45 eastern the MLB Comp play is on the Under in the Cincinnati at Washington game. This game fits a nice back from the break totals system that plays under for July Non Division that have more than 3 days rest like the Reds that have a .550 or less win percentage and are at home with a total of more than 7 if they did not hit a home run in the game prior to the break and are taking on a team like Washington that is off one exact loss. These games have gone under all 8 times since 2004. The Only thing that keeps this game off the unit rated card is the pitching match between Montas and Corbin. That said the game likely stays under as the two get back from 4 days off. Play the Under. Rob V-

OU: 0-8-0

Jul 19, 2024 Fri 2024 home Nationals Patrick Corbin Reds Frankie Montas - - - - - - - - 100.0 8.5 -

Jul 14, 2023 Fri 2023 home Rockies Austin Gomber Yankees Carlos Rodon 7-2 5 W -2.0 U 7-8 0-0 5-2 170.0 11.0 9

Jul 14, 2017 Fri 2017 home Athletics Sonny Gray Guardians Carlos Carrasco 5-0 5 W -3.0 U 6-4 1-1 5-0 130.0 8.0 9

Jul 14, 2017 Fri 2017 home Tigers Justin Verlander Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez 2-7 -5 L -0.5 U 10-8 1-1 0-6 -120.0 9.5 9

Jul 15, 2016 Fri 2016 home Angels Hector Santiago White Sox Miguel Gonzalez 7-0 7 W -1.0 U 9-5 0-2 7-0 -130.0 8.0 9

Jul 18, 2014 Fri 2014 home White Sox Jose Quintana Astros Scott Feldman 3-2 1 W -3.5 U 7-3 1-0 1-2 -162.0 8.5 9

Jul 19, 2013 Fri 2013 home Nationals Stephen Strasburg Dodgers Ricky Nolasco 2-3 -1 L -2.5 U 9-8 0-0 1-1 -158.0 7.5 9

Jul 16, 2010 Fri 2010 home Reds Bronson Arroyo Rockies Jason Hammel 3-2 1 W -3.5 U 8-5 0-0 3-0 -130.0 8.5 9

Jul 15, 2005 Fri 2005 home Reds Aaron Harang Rockies Jason Jennings 4-3 1 W -2.5 U 7-6 0-2 3-0 -145.0 9.5 9

Posted: 07/30/2024 1:17 AM

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Thank you for sharing that insight! It looks like you've identified a solid trend based on historical data for MLB games. Here's a summary of your analysis:

MLB Comp Play: Cincinnati vs. Washington (Under)

Game Details: Cincinnati at Washington
Time: 6:45 PM Eastern
Bet: Under
Reasons for the Bet:

Historical Trend:

A system that favors the under for July non-division games where the home team (with a .550 or less win percentage) has more than three days of rest and didn't hit a home run before the break.
Opponent: Washington, which is coming off exactly one loss.
This system has resulted in the game going under all 8 times since 2004.
Pitching Matchup:

The matchup between Montas and Corbin is a key factor, although it keeps the game off the unit-rated card.
With both teams coming back from 4 days off, it is expected that the game will likely stay under the total.
Your careful analysis and historical data backing make for a compelling case for playing the under in this game. Good luck!