For what it’s worth, I really liked my card last night.  It was enormously huge and that’s scary, but I still liked it.  The games looked pretty clear to me.  I certainly did not expect to “sweep the board” for a second straight day and I didn’t.  The Orioles to care of that early on, by getting blown out by the Cubs.

However, that Orioles game was the only one that I lost!  I also pushed with the Rangers 1^st 5, but I won everything else.! The Reds, Red Sox and Astros won both their 1^st 5 and full games.  The Phils and Mariners won their 1^st 5 and the Guardians and Rangers won their full games.  Hell, even my three side bets, the Guardians 1^st 5 and the Braves 1^st 5 and full game, all won.  It was an absolutely amazing evening, one that I may never replicate again, especially with such a huge card.

If I’m being honest, I did catch a couple of break last night.  The Guardians led 6-3 after 5, but the Tigers tied it at 7-7 in the 6^th.  The Guardians finally pulled it out in the 10^th, but as I’ve said before, extra-inning games are a total crapshoot.  The Astros led 2-1 after 5, but the Marlins briefly tied it in the 7^th before the Astros pulled out a close 5-4 win.  Both of these game could easily have lost, but they didn’t.             

I picked up an unbelievable +133.31 units last night!  That suddenly puts me +128.48 units for the 2024 season!            

Let’s move on to today’s games.  We have a full slate so let’s get right to it.   

For what it’s worth, here’s my Wednesday card.

 

ML Parlays	Team #1	Team #2	Odds	Units
	MINN 1st 5 ML (Gm 2 )	MINN ML (Gm 2)	161	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML (Gm 2 )	BALT 1st 5 ML	159	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML (Gm 2 )	BALT ML	155	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML (Gm 2 )	CLEV ML	175	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML (Gm 2 )	CIN 1st 5 ML	158	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML (Gm 2 )	CIN ML	156	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML (Gm 2 )	NYM 1st 5 ML	144	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML (Gm 2 )	NYM ML	156	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML (Gm 2 )	HOU 1st 5	124	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML (Gm 2 )	HOU ML	126	2
	MINN 1st 5 ML (Gm 2 )	TEX ML	178	2
	MINN ML (Gm 2)	BALT 1st 5 ML	156	2
	MINN ML (Gm 2)	BALT ML	153	2
	MINN ML (Gm 2)	CLEV ML	172	2
	MINN ML (Gm 2)	CIN 1st 5 ML	155	2
	MINN ML (Gm 2)	CIN ML	154	2
	MINN ML (Gm 2)	NYM 1st 5 ML	142	2
	MINN ML (Gm 2)	NYM ML	154	2
	MINN ML (Gm 2)	HOU 1st 5	1342	2
	MINN ML (Gm 2)	HOU ML	124	2
	MINN ML (Gm 2)	TEX ML	175	2
	BALT 1st 5 ML	BALT ML	151	2
	BALT 1st 5 ML	CLEV ML	170	2
	BALT 1st 5 ML	CIN 1st 5 ML	153	2
	BALT 1st 5 ML	CIN ML	152	2
	BALT 1st 5 ML	NYM 1st 5 ML	140	2
	BALT 1st 5 ML	NYM ML	151	2
	BALT 1st 5 ML	HOU 1st 5	130	2
	BALT 1st 5 ML	HOU ML	122	2
	BALT 1st 5 ML	TEX ML	173	2
	BALT ML	CLEV ML	166	2
	BALT ML	CIN 1st 5 ML	150	2
	BALT ML	CIN ML	149	2
	BALT ML	NYM 1st 5 ML	137	2
	BALT ML	NYM ML	148	2
	BALT ML	HOU 1st 5	127	2
	BALT ML	HOU ML	119	2
	BALT ML	TEX ML	169	2
	CLEV ML	CIN 1st 5 ML	169	2
	CLEV ML	CIN ML	167	2
	CLEV ML	NYM 1st 5 ML	155	2
	CLEV ML	NYM ML	167	2
	CLEV ML	HOU 1st 5	144	2
	CLEV ML	HOU ML	135	2
	CLEV ML	TEX ML		2
	CIN 1st 5 ML	CIN ML	151	2
	CIN 1st 5 ML	NYM 1st 5 ML	139	2
	CIN 1st 5 ML	NYM ML	150	2
	CIN 1st 5 ML	HOU 1st 5		2
	CIN 1st 5 ML	HOU ML	121	2
	CIN 1st 5 ML	TEX ML	172	2
	CIN ML	NYM 1st 5 ML	138	2
	CIN ML	NYM ML	149	2
	CIN ML	HOU 1st 5	128	2
	CIN ML	HOU ML	123	2
	CIN ML	TEX ML	171	2
	NYM 1st 5 ML	NYM ML	137	2
	NYM 1st 5 ML	HOU 1st 5	117	2
	NYM 1st 5 ML	HOU ML	109	2
	NYM 1st 5 ML	TEX ML	158	2
	NYM ML	HOU 1st 5	127	2
	NYM ML	HOU ML	119	2
	NYM ML	TEX ML	170	2
	HOU 1st 5	HOU ML	101	2
	HOU 1st 5	TEX ML	147	2
	HOU ML	TX ML	138	2
Sides	PHIL 1st 5 ML		-129	2
	KC 1st 5 ML		-110	2
	TEX 1st 5 ML		-128	2

I know, I’m tempting fate to slap me down hard by playing another big card, but this is how I see it.  I don’t feel as good about this card as yesterday, but I like these early games.

Here’s my thinking on the early games.  I’ll post the two late ones in a while.

 

MINN @ CHI WS (Game #2) 

The 52-39 Twins game at the 26-67 White Sox was rained out last night.  They’ll play two today.    

Starting Pitchers

5:10	SP	GS+	GS-	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
MINN	Lopez - R (8-7)	)9/18_	(9/18)	1.19	5.18	3.38	3.82	3.20	3.18	0.314	0.291	28.1%	5.3%
CHI WS	Thorpe - R  (3-1)	(4/5)	(1/5)	1.13	3.71	3.51	4.37	5.10	5.45	0.265	0.296	16.2%	12.6%

Edge – MINN

Bullpen

Team	W	L	SV	BS	HLD	LOB%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	K%	Rk	BB%	Rk
MINN	21	14	27	13	57	71.0%	12	0.46	8	1.19	6	3.63	8	24.8%	4	8.9%	14
CHI wS	8	29	16	23	45	68.1%	24	0.61	29	1.47	29	4.59	27	22.9%	15	11.3%	29

Edge – MINN big

Offenses

Team	RPG	Rk	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	BB%	Rk	HH%	Rk	Bar%	Rk	K%	Rk
MINN	5.00	3	0.320	10	112	6	0.166	6	8.2%	14	40.6%	6	9.5%	4	20.9%	11
CHI WS	3.24	30	0.278	30	78	30	0.119	30	5.8%	30	36.7%	23	7.1%	22	22.2%	16

Edge – MINN big

Conclusion:  The Twins are the much better team here.  They are 27 games ahead of the White Sox in the standings with a whopping +219 run differential.  The Twins have all he edges.  They are the much better hitting team with a much better bullpen.  They also have the better starting pitching.  Pablo Lopez hasn’t pitched as well as expected with as many below as above average starts.  Drew Thorpe has a slightly better WHIP and more than a full run better ERA than Lopez, but when you look at the ERA metrics, it’s Lopez who has actually been the better pitcher.  Lopez also has the higher K rate and lower walk rate. His ugly 5.18 ERA looks totally inconsistent with any of Lopez’s metrics.

The Twins are the better team and Lopez is the better pitcher.

Pick – MINN 1^st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays

       

CHI C @ BALT

Michael Busch and Ian Happ homered, and Jameson Taillon and three relievers pitched well as the 43-49 Cubs beat 57-34 Orioles 9-2 last night. at Camden Yards. 

Starting Pitchers

  

6:35	SP	GS+	GS-	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
CHI C	Imanaga - L (7-2)	(12/16)	(4/16)	1.11	3.16	3.61	3.39	3.71	3.55	0.285	0.300	24.7%	4.0%
BALT	Burnes - R (9-3)	(17/18)	(1/18)	1.02	2.32	3.00	3.36	3.38	3.57	0.261	0.275	23.6%	5.6%

 Edge – BALT

BullpensTeam	W	L	SV	BS	HLD	LOB%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	K%	Rk	BB%	Rk
CHI C	22	23	21	17	36	70.3%	16	0.53	19	1.36	25	4.21	19	24.1%	9	11.0%	28
BALT	18	12	31	14	77	68.3%	23	0.48	12	1.16	5	3.80	13	23.7%	11	9.0%	16

Edge – BALT

Offenses

Team	RPG	Rk	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	BB%	Rk	HH%	Rk	Bar%	Rk	K%	Rk
CHI C	4.16	20	0.300	22	95	19	0.140	23	9.2%	4	37.9%	21	7.9%	11	23.9%	22
BALT	5.12	1	0.335	2	119	2	0.204	1	7.3%	28	43.9%	1	9.8%	2	21.1%	13

Edge – BALT big

Conclusion:  The Orioles are a lot better than the Cubs.  Their record is 14.5 games better with a +123 run differential.  They are the better hitting team here and, although they don’t have a great bullpen, it is still statistically better.  All I cansay about last night is that Dean Kremer is not a quality starting pitcher and he ws making his first start since April after coming off the IL.  He was awful.  Corbin Burnes is the O’s ace and best pitcher.  His stat profile is outstanding.  Shota Imanaga got off to a really fast start but has tailed off over his last several starts.  His stat profile is still solid, but not as good as Burnes. 

I say the O’s boune back tonight.

Pick – BALT 1^st 5 and full game MLs on a series of parlays

 

CLEV @ DET

José Ramírez became just the 2^nd player to get intentionally walked three times and also have three hits in a game since MLB began tracking walks in 1955 as the 57-33 Guardians held on to beat the 43-49 Tigers 9-8 in 10 innings last night. 

Starting Pitchers

6:40	SP	GS+	GS-	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
CLEV	Bibee - R (7-3)	(11/18)	(7/18)	1.12	3.67	3.33	3.27	3.33	3.23	0.298	0.289	28.4%	5.9%
DET	Olson - R (3-8)	(11/17)	(6/17)	1.18	3.22	3.48	2.96	3.54	3.76	0.279	0.295	22.5%	7.1%

Edge – CLEV

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV	BS	HLD	LOB%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	K%	Rk	BB%	Rk
CLEV	26	9	33	12	74	78.5%	2	0.31	1	1.04	1	2.59	1	27.0%	1	8.3%	8
DET	20	20	20	17	33	67.1%	26	0.53	19	1.24	11	4.22	20	22.2%	21	8.4%	9

Edge – CLEV, big

Offenses

Team	RPG	Rk	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	BB%	Rk	HH%	Rk	Bar%	Rk	K%	Rk
CLEV	4.94	6	0.318	12	108	10	0.164	7	8.1%	17	35.1%	30	6.4%	28	19.7%	4
DET	4.13	21	0.295	26	89	25	0.147	16	7.5%	24	38.1%	20	7.6%	15	23.5%	20

Edge – CLEV, big

Conclusion:  The Guardians are better than the Tigers, 15 games better in the standings with a +115 run differential.  They are the better hitting team and despite what we saw last night, they have one of the best bullpens in the league.  Tonight, the Guardians might also have the slightly better starting pitcher.  Tanner Bibee hasbetter ERA metrics than Reese Oldon, but it’s close enough to keep me away from the 1^st 5.    I still can’t figure out how the Guardians almost lost last night’s game, but they didn’t and that’s the sign of a good team.   

Pick – CLEV ML in a series of parlays

 

LAD @ PHIL

Trea Truner hit his 6^th career grand slam and Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh also homered as the 59-32  Phils blew out the 55-26 Dodgers 10-1 last night.  The Phils welcomed back Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber from the IL, but it wasn’t all good news as ace Zack Wheeler exited the game Wheeler with left low back tightness after five innings.

Starting Pitchers  

7:00	SP	GS+	GS-	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
LAD	Stone - R (9-2)	(1/16)	(5/16)	1.20	3.03	3.77	3.52	4.13	4.35	0.282	0.305	19.3%	7.4%
PHIL	Sanchez - L (6-4)	(11/17)	(6/17)	1.24	2.96	3.53	2.59	3.12	3.47	0.281	0.297	20.6%	6.8%

 Edge – PHIL

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV	BS	HLD	LOB%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	K%	Rk	BB%	Rk
LAD	22	14	27	13	47	74.2%	4	0.43	4	1.12	2	3.34	4	22.6%	17	8.7%	12
PHIL	17	13	25	14	40	71.0%	12	0.45	7	1.19	6	3.41	6	27.0%	1	7.3%	2

Edge – LAD

Offenses

Team	RPG	Rk	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	BB%	Rk	HH%	Rk	Bar%	Rk	K%	Rk
LAD	4.99	4	0.336	1	121	1	0.184	2	9.9%	2	41.9%	4	9.5%	4	20.9%	11
PHIL	4.97	5	0.326	5	111	7	0.160	9	9.0%	6	40.0%	9	7.7%	13	22.0%	15

Edge – LAD, but real close

Conclusion:  Despite what we saw last night, these are two very good teams.  They are both very good hitting teams, but the Dodgers offense has the slightly better stat profile.  The Dodgers also appear to have the better bullpen.  That leaves the starting pitching matchup and that looks close.  Both Gavin Stone and Cristopher Sanchez have pitched well, but when you look at the ERA metrics, wOBA and xwOBA, it’s Sanchez with the better numbers and with Harper and Schwarber both back.  I’ve got to like the Phils here, at least for the first five innings.   

Pick – PHIL 1^st 5 ML in a side bet 

 

COL @ CIN

Will Benson hit a three-run HR in the Red’s five-run 2^nd and rookie Rece Hinds his his 2^nd HR in two games as the 44-48 Reds cruised to a 12-6 win over the 32-60 Rockies last night.

Starting Pitchers  

7:10	SP	GS+	GS-	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
COL	Freeland - L (0-3)	(3/7)	(4/7)	1.67	6.62	5.25	4.56	4.91	5.12	0.364	0.355	12.9%	7.4%
CIN	Montas - R (4-6)	(7/16)	(9/16)	1.32	4.19	4.82	4.72	4.69	4.78	0.320	0.342	18.6%	9.9%

Edge – CIN

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV	BS	HLD	LOB%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	K%	Rk	BB%	Rk
COL	18	17	18	19	33	64.8%	30	0.68	30	1.61	30	5.68	30	18.1%	30	10.8%	27
CIN	11	19	24	6	54	74.0%	5	0.44	6	1.22	9	3.57	7	24.8%	4	8.7%	12

Edge – CIN

Offenses

Team	RPG	Rk	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	BB%	Rk	HH%	Rk	Bar%	Rk	K%	Rk
COL	4.12	22	0.303	18	80	28	0.144	19	7.4%	26	39.9%	10	7.6%	15	25.2%	28
CIN	4.35	16	0.299	23	88	26	0.151	14	8.4%	11	35.4%	28	6.9%	25	24.7%	25

Edge - CIN

Conclusion:  The overall stats tell us that both of these two offenses are bad, but very close and very evenly matched.  However, in this case, the overall numbers are probably deceptive.  The Rockies’ offense at Coors, is an entirely different animal than it is on the road.  While the Rockies average just a dismal 3.60 runs per game on the road, they average a much better 4.67 at Coors.  When we factor that into the equation, the Reds are probably the better hitting team.  The Reds also have the clearly better bullpen.  They rank in the top-10 in runs allowed per inning, WHIP, ERA, K, walk and strand rates.  By contrast the Rockies pen is awful, ranking dead last in almost all of those categories.  That bring us to the two starting pitchers and the Reds should have an edge there even with Frankie Montas.  Although he’s pitched well in each of his three starts since returning from the IL.  I’ve never liked Kyle Freeland and his career tells me it won’t last.  Frankie Montas is no prize, but he gets to face this wretched away from Coors offense.  olo’s statistical profile is across the board better than Quantrill’s. 

It’s not that I think the Reds are a good team.  They’re not, but they are just better than the dreamful Rockies, especially away from Coors, where the Rockies are now an atrocious 12-23.  I’m holding my nose again on this one, but I’m fading the Rockies on the road again

Pick – CIN 1^st 5 and full game ML in a series of parlays

 

WASH @ NYM

Jose Quintana gave up just one hit over seven scoreless innings, and Brandon Ninmo and Francisco Lindor both homered as the 45-45 Mets beat the 42-50 Nats 7-5 last night.

Starting Pitchers

7:10	SP	GS+	GS-	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
WASH	Corbin - L (1-8)	(8/18)	(10/18)	1.53	5.49	6.25	4.74	4.48	4.79	0.369	0.382	15.6%	8.0%
NYM	Severino - R (5-3)	*8/17)	(9/17)	1.20	3.83	3.85	4.35	4.35	4.49	0.297	0.309	17.9%	7.9%

Edge – NYM

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV	BS	HLD	LOB%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	K%	Rk	BB%	Rk
WASH	17	18	24	13	57	69.4%	19	0.52	18	1.29	17	4.15	17	21.8%	24	7.7%	4
NYM	25	20	22	16	60	66.9%	27	0.57	25	1.33	23	4.16	18	26.4%	3	10.7%	25

Edge – WASH close

Offenses

Team	RPG	Rk	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	BB%	Rk	HH%	Rk	Bar%	Rk	K%
WASH	4.20	19	0.299	24	92	23	0.131	28	7.9%	18	35.9%	26	5.5%	30	20.6%
NYM	4.81	8	0.321	9	112	6	0.167	6	8.2%	15	40.4%	7	9.5%	4	20.9%

Edge – NYM big

Conclusion: The Mets are the better team here.  They’re four games better in the standings with a +25 run differential.  The Nats can’t hit and the Mets can. Neither bullpen is particularly good.  However the Mets have the clearly better starting pitcher.  Luis Severino’s statistical profile is simply much better than Patrick Corbin’s, pretty much across the board.

Pick – NYM 1^st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays         

 

KC @ STL (game 2)

The 49-43 Royals game at the 48-42 Cards was rained out last night, so they’ll play two today.

Starting Pitchers

7:45

SP

GS+

GS-

WHIP

ERA

xERA

FIP

xFIP

SIERA

wOBA

xwOBA

K%

BB%

KC

Wacha - R (5-6)

(10/15)

(4/15)

1.22

3.74

3.83

3.66

4.01

4.13

0.299

0.309

21.4%

7.4%

STL

Graceffo - R (0-0)

N/A

N/A

Edge – KC

Bullpens

N/A – This is a 1^st 5 bet only

Offenses

Team	RPG	Rk	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	BB%	Rk	HH%	Rk	Bar%	Rk	K%	Rk
KC	4.54	`13	0.309	14	95	19	0.158	10	7.5%	24	39.9%	10	7.9%	11	18.9%	3
STL	4.10	21	0.304	17	98	15	0.137	24	7.8%	19	35.6%	27	6.4%	28	22.3%	17

Edge – KC

Conclusion:  I would have preferred that the Royals had lost the first game this afternoon, but they didn’t.  The stat tell me the Royals are the better hitting team here.  Their respective wRC+s are close but everything else tils to the Royals.  The Royals also have the better starting pitcher.  Michael Wacha has pitcher quite well this season for the Royals with twice as many above average stats as below.  His stat profile is solid.  By contrast, the Cardinals have recalled Gordon Graceffo from AAA Memphis to make his first major-league start in the second game of today’s  doubleheader.  Graceffo will serve as the 27th man for the Cards and will be returned to Memphis after this spot start. The right-hander pitched well in long relief in his MLB debut last month, giving up one run with a 4/2 K:/B ratio over 4.1 innings against the Reds.

I’ll willing go with the proven vet here.

Pick – KC 1^st 5 ML in a side bet