HOU @ LAA
The 28-35 Astros head to the West Coast for a weekend series again the 24-38 Angels. The Astros had the day off after taking two of three from the visiting Cards at Minute Maid Park earlier in the week. The Angels also had the day off after sweeping the visiting Padres in a three-game series at Angel Stadium.
Starting Pitchers
|
9:38
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
HOU
|
Valdez - L
|
(6/9)
|
(3/9_
|
1.24
|
3.95
|
3.99
|
3.94
|
3.42
|
3.46
|
0.311
|
0.318
|
18.9%
|
7.7%
|
|
LAA
|
Canning - R
|
(5/12)
|
(7/12)
|
1.37
|
4.69
|
4.92
|
5.30
|
4.93
|
4.85
|
0.343
|
0.349
|
16.4%
|
8.7%
|
Edge – HOU
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
HOU
|
9
|
14
|
12
|
10
|
30
|
74.3%
|
6
|
0.45
|
10
|
1.25
|
15
|
3.60
|
12
|
23.1%
|
15
|
9.6%
|
20
|
|
LAA
|
9
|
9
|
15
|
9
|
28
|
65.7%
|
29
|
0.59
|
27
|
1.31
|
18
|
4.71
|
27
|
21.9%
|
20
|
10.9%
|
25
|
Edge – HOU
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
LAA
|
4.06
|
21
|
0.303
|
18
|
94
|
23
|
0.150
|
13
|
7.5%
|
25
|
37.4%
|
23
|
7.7%
|
14
|
23.0%
|
17
|
|
HOU
|
4.40
|
13
|
0.323
|
6
|
111
|
5
|
0.159
|
6
|
7.8%
|
23
|
39.3%
|
15
|
7.4%
|
17
|
18.1%
|
1
|
Edge – HOU
Conclusion: The Astros appear to have all the edges in this one. They are the better hitting team, averaging about a third of a run more than the Angels with a better wOBA and wRC+. The Astros don’t have a great bullpen, but after a terrible start, this pen has gotten better, giving up significantly fewer runs oer inning pitched with a slightly better WHIP, an ERA that’s more than a full run lower, as well as a better strand and K rate. That bring us to the two starting pitchers and the Astros should have a clear edge there as well.
Framber Valdez hasn’t been as consistent as he’s beenin orevious seasons, but his still has 6 above average starts to just 3 below average one in his 9 outings. And his wHIP, ERA and ERA metrics are all still solid and better that Griffin Canning’s. The Same holds true for Valdez’s wOBA, xwOBA, K and walk rates. They’re all better than Canning’s and then there’s that still elite 60.4% GB rate thatkeeps Valdez very relevant.
By contrast, there’s not much to like about Canning. He has more below average starts (7) than above average ones (5)and his statistical profile is across the board worse than Valdez’s.
The Astros have all the edges
Pick – HOU 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays.
TOR @ OAK
The 30-32 Blue Jays travel to the West Coast to face off with the 25-39 A’s. The Jay beat the visiting Orioles 8-5 to earn a split of their four-game series at the Rogers Centre, after losing the first two games. The A’s were beaten 3-0 by the visiting Mariners, after splitting the first two games of their series at the Oakland Coliseum.
Starting Pitchers
|
9:40
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
TOR
|
Bassitt - R
|
(6/12)
|
(6/12)
|
1.45
|
4.13
|
4.33
|
4.07
|
4.06
|
4.11
|
0.330
|
0.333
|
21.9%
|
9.0%
|
|
OAJ
|
Harris - L
|
(0/1)
|
(1/1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – TOR
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
TOR
|
3.92
|
24
|
0.303
|
18
|
98
|
16
|
0.136
|
22
|
9.3%
|
4
|
34.8%
|
30
|
6.3%
|
27
|
19.2%
|
4
|
|
OAK
|
3.69
|
28
|
0.296
|
25
|
96
|
21
|
0.157
|
9
|
8.4%
|
14
|
37.8%
|
19
|
8.9%
|
5
|
26.1%
|
29
|
Edge – TOR
Conclusion: These are two bad teams, but of the two, the A’s are worse than the Jays. The Jays are the better of two weak hitting hitting teams. Itt’s not saying much, but the Jays average almost a third of a run more, with a better wOBA, wRC+ and walk rate. The Jays also have the better starting pitcher.
Chris Bassitt is far from being an elite starting pitcher, but he has started 12 games with half grading as above average and half grading as below. His statistical profile is totally mediocre, but he is at least a proved commodity and we kind of know wat to expect. Other than giving the Jays lots of innings he’s usually not great, but not awful either.
Hogan Harris only has 1 start and it wasn’t very good. He gave up 3 runs to the Rays on 4 hits (2 HRs) and 3 walks in 5.2 innings. Between that start and two relief appearances, he’s given up 7 runs (5 earned) on 12 hits and 6 walks over 14.1 innings with 15 Ks. The Ks are impressive, but not much else.
For five innings, I’ll take my chances with Bassitt.
Pick – TOR 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays