For what it’s worth, yesterday ‘s results at least made more sense to me. It wasn’t completely devoid of stunning upsets, as the Rockies again beat the Padres on the road! Wher is the hell is this coming from? the Padres took two of three from the Dodgers and then suddenly can’t beat a shitty Rockies team? That makes absolutely no sense, but it happened, not once, but twice and that game was my biggest loser of the evening.
The Padres weren’t my only loser. The Tigers lost 1-0 in 10 innings to the wretched Marlins, while the Nats and Cards both pushed their 1st 5s, as the Nats blew a 3-1 in the bottom of the 5th and the Cards blew a 5-0 lead.
Fortunately, the Braves Astros and Dodgers all won both their 1st 5 and full game MLs and the Mariners won their 1st 5 despite losing the full game late to the Angels.
I finished the day +12.79 units, still leaving me -20.92 unit for the season. It’s a step in the right direction. I may be off to a slow start, but I still trust my process and believe that I can turn this around, not in a day or a week, but in a month or two.
Today we have a full slate of games and there are a few that I think I like. I’m not doing really well yet, but I’m sticking to my convictions. In the long run, it’s worked pretty well for me. Here’s my Wednesday card.
|
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
136
|
2
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
SD ML
|
135
|
2
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 RL
|
159
|
2
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
PHIL ML
|
164
|
2
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
140
|
2
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
`139
|
2
|
|
|
DET ML
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
133
|
2
|
|
|
DET ML
|
SD ML
|
122
|
2
|
|
|
DET ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 RL
|
155
|
2
|
|
|
DET ML
|
PHIL ML
|
161
|
2
|
|
|
DET ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
137
|
2
|
|
|
DET ML
|
HOU ML
|
136
|
2
|
|
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 RL
|
120
|
2
|
|
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
PHIL ML
|
125
|
2
|
|
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
104
|
2
|
|
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
104
|
2
|
|
|
SD ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 RL
|
120
|
2
|
|
|
SD ML
|
PHIL ML
|
124
|
2
|
|
|
SD ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
104
|
2
|
|
|
SD ML
|
HOU ML
|
103
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 RL
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
124
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 RL
|
HOU ML
|
123
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
128
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL ML
|
HOU ML
|
129
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
|
-125
|
2
|
|
|
BALT ML
|
|
-123
|
2
|
|
|
WASH ML
|
|
131
|
2
|
|
|
NIMM 1st 5 ML
|
|
135
|
2
|
Here are my thoughts on today’s afternoon games. I’ll post the evening games a little later.
TOR@ BALT
The 19-22 Blue Jays were rained out last night, after beat the 26-14 Orioles 3-2 in 10 innings at Camden Yards on Monday.
Starting Pitchers
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
XERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
Kikuchi - L
|
(6/*)
|
(2/8))
|
1.05
|
2.64
|
2.78
|
2.59
|
3.22
|
3.34
|
0.265
|
0.269
|
24.2%
|
4.8%
|
|
Bradish - R
|
(2/2)
|
(0/2)
|
1.24
|
1.86
|
2.61
|
2.10
|
2.84
|
2.85
|
0.298
|
,261
|
32.6%
|
9.3%
|
Edge – BALT
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
TOR
|
7
|
4
|
11
|
3
|
23
|
68.2%
|
22
|
0.61
|
28
|
1.38
|
19
|
5.15
|
30
|
19.7%
|
27
|
9.4%
|
12
|
|
BALT
|
10
|
4
|
13
|
8
|
34
|
70.5%
|
15
|
0.44
|
7
|
1.11
|
4
|
3.38
|
8
|
25.0%
|
5
|
8.9%
|
10
|
Edge - BALT
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
TOR
|
3.66
|
28
|
0.302
|
21
|
96
|
20
|
0.132
|
23
|
9.2%
|
9
|
36.5%
|
26
|
6.8%
|
23
|
20.2%
|
7
|
|
BALT
|
5.00
|
5
|
0.327
|
5
|
114
|
3
|
0.196
|
1
|
6.9%
|
28
|
43.3%
|
3
|
9.6%
|
1
|
22.0%
|
13
|
Edge - BALT, big
How stupid am I? I actually expected the Jays to contend with the O’s and Yanks in the AL East this season. It’s still early, so I suppose they still could, but I sure wouldn’t bet on it. The Jays got the first game of this series, but they really need to start winning series to get back into it. What in the hell happened to this team. The starting pitching should be better than it has been and the offense has been an unmitigated disaster. By contrast, other than walking a little lass and striking out a little more, the O’s are the much better hitting team. The problem this season is that their bullpen is nowhere near as good as it was a season ago. Last season, the O’s succeeded despite a patchwork rotation because of a dominant bullpen, but that’s no longer the case with elite closer Felix Bautista out for the season following Tommy John surgery and new closer Craig Kimbrel approaching 36 and struggling more. Still other than giving up a few more walks, the O’s pen is still statistically better than the Jays pen. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Yusei Kikuchi us having a fine season so far, with six of his eight starts grading as above . His WHIP and eRA are both very good and his ERA metrics are solid as well, but Kikuchi has never been this good or this consistent before His history says he;s about league average , no better and no worse, so I’m expecting some regression from Kukuchi.
Kyle Bradish has only started two game for the Orioles, but both graded as above average and his statistical profile, while admittedly short on sample size, is better than Kikuchi;s, specifically the ERA metrics. He aksi has a better K rate than Kikuchi.
The O’s are the better hitting team with the better pen, if only by default and probably the better starting pitcher as well.
Pick – BALT 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
MIA @ DET
The 12-32 Marlins finally won a game, beating the 20-21 Tigers 1-0 last night in Detroit, after losing the first game of the series 6-5 on Monday.
Starting Pitchers
|
1:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
XERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
MIA
|
Rogers - L
|
(1/8)
|
(6/8)
|
1.86
|
6.57
|
5.31
|
4.60
|
4.29
|
4.52
|
0.296
|
0.362
|
17.2%
|
9.4%
|
|
DET
|
Mize - R
|
(3/7)
|
(4/7)
|
1.30
|
3.58
|
3.96
|
3.59
|
3.98
|
4.19
|
0.298
|
0.318
|
16.0%
|
5.6%
|
Edge – DET
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
MIA
|
5
|
11
|
5
|
9
|
17
|
67.0%
|
26
|
0.61
|
28
|
1.45
|
29
|
4.78
|
25
|
21.4%
|
22
|
10.3%
|
22
|
|
DET
|
13
|
10
|
11
|
10
|
20
|
72.3%
|
11
|
0.44
|
7
|
1.20
|
8
|
3.23
|
7
|
20.9%
|
24
|
9.4%
|
12
|
Edge – DET
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
MIA
|
3.66
|
27
|
0.281
|
29
|
80
|
28
|
0.119
|
29
|
6.5%
|
30
|
36.7%
|
25
|
6.9%
|
29
|
20.5%
|
9
|
|
DET
|
4.00
|
21
|
0.298
|
25
|
92
|
24
|
0.139
|
19
|
8.5%
|
17
|
40.7%
|
6
|
8.0%
|
9
|
24.1%
|
24
|
Edge – DET
Conclusion: Neither of these teams is performing well right now, but of the two, the Tigers are at least keeping their heads above water at about .500 in the very competitive AL Central, while the Marlins are already out of the NL East race and probably the NL wild card race as well. Neither team hits very well, but of the two the Tiger offense has been the better unit. The same hold true for these two bullpens, neither is stellar, but other than a slightly lower K rate than the Marlins, this Tiger pen has been OK and that’s more than I can say for this wretched Marlins pen that surprisingly didn’t give it up late last night. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that looks like a mismatch.
Trevor Rogers has been awful with just one of his eight starts grading as above average. His WHIP is approaching 2.00 and hs ERA is over 6.pp. Rogers’ eRA metrics, while not quite as bad, are still lousy with a dedestrian Krate, a high walk rate for a guy who doesn’t miss many bats, a high .370 BABIP and a low 61.3% strand rate.
When healthy, Casey Mize has looked like a solid MLB pitcher. But an elbow injury cut his 2022 seson short after only two starts, and then he missed all of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Back in 2021, Mize posted a 1.14 WHIP, a 3.71 ERA, and 118 strikeouts over 150.1 innings in his first full season as starter. It was fair to expect some rust, but Mize was drafted first overall back in 2018, so the talent is certainly there and from all appearances he’s now healthy. Other than a slightly lower K rate, Casey Mize has the much better statistical profile. While he doesn’t generate a lot of Ks, Mize’s 49.2% GB compensates for a lot of that. Mize has been the much better pitcher this season
Pick – DET 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
WASH @ CHI WS (Game 1)
The 20-20 Nats beat the wretched 12-30 White Sox 6-3 in Chicago yesterday.
Starting Pitchers
|
2:10
|
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
XERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
WASH
|
Corbin - L
|
(33/8)
|
(5/8)
|
1.78
|
5.91
|
5.92
|
4.12
|
4.26
|
4.67
|
0.379
|
0.421
|
14.8%
|
8.2%
|
|
CHI WS
|
Crochet - L
|
(6/9)
|
(3/9)
|
0.99
|
4.63
|
2.15
|
3.33
|
2.56
|
2.38
|
0.288
|
0.237
|
34.2%
|
4.8%
|
Edge – CHI WS
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
WASH
|
8
|
7
|
12
|
5
|
31
|
73.1%
|
9
|
0.45
|
11
|
1.36
|
18
|
3.60
|
11
|
22.8%
|
14
|
9.8%
|
17
|
|
CHI WS
|
4
|
11
|
9
|
9
|
22
|
69.6%
|
17
|
0.59
|
26
|
1.41
|
27
|
4.13
|
17
|
20.3%
|
25
|
11.3%
|
26
|
Edge – WASH
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
WASH
|
4.05
|
20
|
0.301
|
22
|
94
|
23
|
0.134
|
22
|
9.1%
|
10
|
37.9%
|
20
|
6.1%
|
27
|
21.6%
|
12
|
|
CHI WS
|
2.93
|
30
|
0.271
|
30
|
72
|
30
|
0.116
|
30
|
6.9%
|
28
|
34.5%
|
29
|
5.9%
|
29
|
23.1%
|
19
|
Edge – WASH
Conclusion: With the Marlins playing so badly, the White Sox now only rank as the 2nd worst team in the league. I guess that might counts as improvement for the White Sox. In this game, the Nats would appear to have most of the edges. They are the better hitting team and it’s not particularly close. It’s not that the Nats hit well, Theu don’t. It’s mostly that the White Sox are the worst hitting team in the league, ranking dead last in runs per game, wOBA, wRC+, and ISO. The Nats also have the much better bullpen. Hower, today the starting pitching matchup is very intriguing.
Patrick Corbin hasn’t been good since 2019. He’s started eight games and only three of they graded as above average, but the strange thing is that all three of the above haverage stats have come in his last four outing, including his last two. I suspect that with his contract expiring, Corbin knows that this is the end of his run in D.C. and he’s trying to pitcher well enough to latch on with some other team next season. Corbin’s stat profile is still lousy, but he has ben better recently.
Garrett Crochet has pitched remarkably well, considering just how bad the White Sox really are. He has started nine games for the White Sox this season with six grading as above average and just three grading as below. Whie he struggled some during the middle of April, giving up 17 runs over an ugly three-start stretch, he seems to be fully back on track, giving up just three runs while registering a stellar 24/1 K/BB ratio over his last three outings, including setting a new career best with 11 Ks in his last start v the Guardians. I’m guessing that Crochet gets traded to a contender before the trade deadline. He could bring top line prospects to a team starting a total rebuild.
The Nats are the better team, but the White Sox have the better starting pitcher. I would consider Crochet on a 1st 5 ML bet, but not at the current -180 price. Hower. Ther Nats at plus money is worth a shot.
Pick – WASH ML in a side bet
COL @ SD
I have no idea how they did it again, but the 14-28 Rockies somehow managed to again beat the 22-23 Padres and Dylan Cease 6-3, at Peco last night , after winning 5-4 on Monday.
Starting Pitchers
|
4:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
XERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
COL
|
Gomber - L
|
(4/8)
|
(4/8)
|
1.25
|
3.43
|
4.60
|
5.13
|
4.45
|
4.67
|
0.340
|
0.375
|
16.1%
|
8.1%
|
|
SD
|
King - R
|
(4/8)
|
(3/8)
|
1.31
|
3.67
|
4.24
|
5.06
|
3.90
|
4.00
|
0.313
|
0.328
|
25.6%
|
11.4%
|
Edge – SD
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
COL
|
8
|
8
|
6
|
3
|
11
|
69.4%
|
19
|
0.55
|
20
|
1.49
|
30
|
4.44
|
20
|
18.5%
|
29
|
11.2%
|
25
|
|
SD
|
8
|
6
|
12
|
5
|
18
|
71.6%
|
14
|
0.49
|
15
|
1.27
|
14
|
4.05
|
16
|
21.6%
|
20
|
8.8%
|
9
|
Edge - SD
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
COL
|
3.90
|
22
|
0.303
|
20
|
80
|
28
|
0.132
|
23
|
7.3%
|
27
|
39.8%
|
11
|
6.8%
|
23
|
26.3%
|
29
|
|
SD
|
4.69
|
11
|
0.320
|
8
|
112
|
7
|
0.146
|
14
|
8.0%
|
21
|
38.1%
|
17
|
7.5%
|
17
|
19.9%
|
4
|
Edge – SD big
Conclusion: The stats are all still telling me that the Padres are the better team in this divisional matchup. Despite what happened in the first two games of this series (and I can’t exolain that), I still believe that the Padres are the much better team. They hold every single statistical edge and most by a wide margin. They have the much better offense, especially when you factor in home/road splits. While the Rockies average only 3.90 runs per game, overall, away from Coors, that number drops to a miserable 3.48. Only the White Sox hit worse on the road. The Padres also have the much better bullpen and probably the better starting pitcher as well.
Austin Gomber has started eight games with four grading as above average and four grading as below, but three of his last four graded as above average. His WHIP and ERA are both good, but his ERA metrics are all mediocre and much worse than his ERA. His xwOBA is aksi hgher than his actual one, with a poor K rate. His 45% GB rate helps some, the metrics are all telling me to look for regression from Gomber.
Michael King has either been lights out or not very good this season. There hasn’t been a lot in the middle. King has also started eight games with four grading as above average one grading as average and three grading as below. His WHIP and ER aren’t quite as good as Gomber’s, but his ERA metrics, wOBA and xwOBA are all much better, with an almost 10% better K rate. I didn’t think that the Rockies would ever win two on the road. They did and it cost me last night.
I very much doubt that they win three in a row. In fact I’.m betting against it.
Pick – SD 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays