Again, I apologize for the lack of write ups this morning.  I just didn’t have time.  Fortunately, the day games went pretty well.  The Card only pushed on the 1^st 5, but that wasn’t Miles Mikolas’ fault,  He again pitched great.   The Cards just didn’t score until late in the game.

The Rays continued doing what theyy’ve been doing all seasom.

Hopefully tonight will go as well.

Here are the games that I’m on.

CHI WS @ DET

Starting Pitchers

Edge – CHI WS

Bullpens

N/A – This is a 1^st 5 bet only

Offenses

Edge – CHI WS

Conclusion:  After dropping the first game of their three-game series with the Guardians, the White Sox bounced back to win the last two games, including a 6-0 shutout win by Michale Kopech who had been struggling.

The Tigers took two of three from the Royals, including a 6-4 win yesterday.

Offensively, while neither of these teams is exactly lighting up the scoreboard, the White Sox do score about a half arun more per game than the Tigers with a slightly higher wOBA and wRC+.

That brings us to the two starting pitchers and the White Sox should have a  big edge with Lucas Giolito facing Alex Faedo.

Giolito has pitched really well for the White Sox this season with 7 of his 10 starts grading as above average and just 3 grading as below.  His WHIP and ERA are both solid and his ERA metrics are totally consistent with his ERA.  Giolito’s WOBA and xwOBA are both slightly lower than league average, with a good K rate, a good walk rate and a low 35.9% hard contact rate. 

By contrast, A;ex Faedo has only started 3 games for the Tigers with 2 of the 3 grading as below average.  He has given up 9 runs (8 earned) on 12 hits (5 HRs) and 1 walk over 15.2 innings with 12 Ks.  The 5 Hrs in his 3 starts is a lot and a legitimate cuase for concern.
After a really poor start the White Sox are playing well right now, having won 7 of their last 10 games.  They have the better offense here and the better starting pitcher, but I don’t trust their bullpen one bit.          

  Pick – CHI WS 1^st 5 ML in a side bet

PHIL @ ATL
Starting Pitchers

Edge – PHIL

Bullpens

NA – This is  1^st 5 bet only

Offenses

Edge – ATL

Conclusion:  The Phils needed a 9^th inning collapse by the Daimondbacks’ bullpen to salvage the final game of their series with the Dbacks.

The Braves also needed that close 4-3 win over the Dodgers after losing the first two games of their with the Dodgers.

Offensively, the numbers clearly tell us that the Braves ae the better hitting team here.  The Phils are hitting right around league average, while the Brave offense ranks in the top 20 in runs per game, wOBA and wRC+.

That Brings us to the two starting pitchers and that a totally different story with Aaron Nola facing Dylan Dodd.

Nola has started 10 games for the Phils with 8 of the 10 grading as above average, including his last 7, and just 2 grading as below.  His WHIP is fine, but his ERA is still mediocre, but somewhat misleadingas all his ERA metrics are lower.  A lousy 65.9% strand rate, that’s more than 8% lower than Nola’s career rate tells me that he has been the victom of some bad luck with runners on the bases.   Nola’s wOBA and xwOBA are both lower than league average, but his K rate is down about 9% from last season, so that’s a concern.  Nola’s still not walking many batters and his 34.6% hard contact rate is still low.  The only resal concern is the drop in Ks.

Thanks to injuries to Max Friend and Kyl to fill out e Wright, the  Braves have had to tun to kids like Dodd to fill out theur depleted rotation.  The 24-year-old Dodd has started 3 games for the braves with just one of the 3 grading as above average and the other 2 grading as below.  He has given up 11 runs on 24 hits and 4 walks over 15.1 innings with 7 Ks.  That’s 28 baserunners in just over 15 innings!  Dodd’s putting to many men on bass and not generating enough Ks and that’s a recipe for trouble.

For five innings, I’ll take my chances with Nola.

Pick – PHIL 1^st 5 ML in a side bet

OAK @ SEA

Starting Pitchers

 Edge – SEA      

Bullpens

Edge - SEA

Offenses

Edge – SEA

Conclusion: The Mariners have taken the first three games of this series by a combined score of 20-5.

Offensively, while neither of these teams is particularly strong, the Mariners do score almost a run more than the A’s, with a  better wOBA and wRC+, and they’re at home, so I guess I’ll give them the edge.

While I can’t say that the Mariners pen is all that good, the stats say that it is still a hell of a lot better than the A’s pathetic pen.

That brings us to the two starting pitchers and the Mariners should have an edge with Logan Gilbert facing JP Seasrs. 

Sears has actually been pretty decent, at least by A’s standards, in that 5 of his 9 starts have graded as above average.  His WHIP is OK, but his ERA is high.  His ERA metrics aren’t good, but they are all a little lower than his ERA telling me that Sears isn’t as bad as his ERA says he is.  Sears’ wOBA and xwOBA are both a little higher than league average but not awful.  His K rate is pretty good and so is his walk rate.  However, he sas given up 11 HRs.  That’s not so good.  I realize this a ringing endorsement, but on this A’s staff, Sears is probably the best they have.     

Gilbert’s been very good for the Mariners with 6 above average starts in his 9 outings to just 3 below average ones.  His WHIP is excellent and his ERA is solid, but his ERA metrics are all at least a full run lower than his ERA.  Gilbert’s wOBA and xwOBA are both much lower than league average and he sports an elite K rate and a low walk rate.

Gilbert is the better pitcher here and with the exception of a similar walk rate all the rest of his numbers are clearly better thatn Sears’, and it’s not really very close. 

The Mariners are the much better team and Gilbert is much better than Sears.  I’m again fading the worst team in baseball.  If it ain’t brole.;..

Pick – SEA 1^st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays