For what it’s worth, yesterday turned out to be another disappointing day for me. I finished the day -7.84 units andd I needed a late evening bet on the Mariners full game ML to stop the bleeding. That now leaves me +181.49 units for the 2023 season.
I used four sides, the Rangers 1st 5 ML, the Yankees 1st 5 ML, the Braves 1st 5 ML and the Tigers 1st 5 ML in a round robin of parlays. The Rangers won. The Yankees pushed and both the Braves and Tigers lost.
I also bet one side late, the Mariners full game ML and that cashed.
All of my four sides were based on what I say as huge starting pitching mismatches, but when Gerrit Cole and Spencer Strider both got shelled early, I already knew it wasnt going to be a good evening. I was lucky that the Yanks were able to come back and a 5th inning Aaron Judge HR, at east gave me a push in a game I probably should have lost.
The Braves could do nothing against rookie Bobby Miller, while the Dodgers were teeing off on Strider.
Fortunately Nathan Eovladi was very good again and the Mariners eked by the A’s.
We have a full slate of games to choose from today, with several day games, so let’s get to it. Here’s today’s card.
|
ML Parlays
|
Team 1
|
Team 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
112
|
2
|
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
SEA ML
|
112
|
2
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
MIA 1st 5 ML
|
158
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
2
|
|
Sides
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
|
-120
|
2
|
|
|
ARIZ ML
|
|
-115
|
2
|
|
|
HTN ML
|
|
-107
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Totals
|
TEX @ PITT Over 9
|
|
-101
|
2
|
Here are the early game write ups. I’ll post the evenng games later.
TEX @ PITT
Starting Pitchers
|
12:35
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
HC%
|
|
TEX
|
Perez - L
|
|
(4/9)
|
(4/9)
|
1.52
|
4.01
|
4.99
|
4.70
|
4.67
|
4.74
|
0.355
|
0.345
|
17.5%
|
6.5%
|
37.4%
|
38.2%
|
|
PITT
|
Oviedo - R
|
|
(5/9)
|
(4/9)
|
1.54
|
4.69
|
3.90
|
4.01
|
4.63
|
4.81
|
0.324
|
0.309
|
19.5%
|
10.4%
|
40.0%
|
40.0%
|
Edge – NONE
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
|
TEX
|
8
|
9
|
9
|
8
|
25
|
66.2%
|
29
|
0.56
|
26
|
1.27
|
11
|
4.57
|
25
|
21.9%
|
25
|
9.2%
|
11
|
|
PITT
|
5
|
6
|
13
|
6
|
25
|
75.5%
|
6
|
0.43
|
6
|
1.32
|
20
|
3.73
|
8
|
24.5%
|
11
|
10.2%
|
23
|
Edge - PITT
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
|
TEX
|
6.40
|
1
|
0.346
|
2
|
121
|
2
|
8.7%
|
18
|
0.184
|
4
|
-4.4
|
27
|
23.0%
|
15
|
|
PITT
|
4.38
|
17
|
0.317
|
14
|
98
|
17
|
9.9%
|
3
|
0.155
|
16
|
1.1
|
11
|
22.4%
|
13
|
Edge - TEX
Conclusion: The Rangers won 6-1 behind another strong outing by Nathan Eovaldi to even this series at one game apiece.
Offensively, the Pirates are about league average, which is still a huge improvement from where they were a season ago, but the Rangers, despite last night’s pathetic performance, might still possess the best offense in baseball. They rank 1st in runs per game and 2nd in both wOBA and wRC+.
Neither of these two bullpens is particularly trustworthy. Of the two, the Pirates have the better save rate, strand rate, ERA and K rate. They also allow fewer runs per inning pitched. The margins aren’t that big, so I give them the edge.
That leaves the two starting pitchers and I don’t like either one. I expect both teams to score runs in this one.
Pick – OVER 9
ARIZ @ PHIL
Starting Pitchers
|
1:05
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
HC%
|
|
ARIZ
|
Gallen - R
|
|
(810
|
(2/10)
|
1.00
|
2.95
|
3.41
|
1.98
|
2.90
|
3.11
|
0.324
|
0.309
|
29.9%
|
5.0%
|
41.9%
|
40.3%
|
|
PHIL
|
Suarez - L
|
|
(0/2)
|
(2/2)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – ARIZ
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
|
ARIZ
|
14
|
7
|
12
|
9
|
25
|
70.6%
|
21
|
0.53
|
22
|
1.30
|
16
|
4.39
|
23
|
23.1%
|
19
|
9.5%
|
15
|
|
PHIL
|
10
|
6
|
12
|
4
|
26
|
67.5%
|
26
|
0.57
|
27
|
1.38
|
25
|
4.14
|
19
|
26.1%
|
6
|
10.4%
|
24
|
Edge – ARIZ but very close
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
|
ARIZ
|
5.15
|
6
|
0.332
|
7
|
107
|
9
|
8.2%
|
22
|
0.169
|
11
|
3.6
|
5
|
20.2%
|
4
|
|
PHIL
|
4.30
|
20
|
0.324
|
11
|
101
|
13
|
7.8%
|
25
|
0.161
|
13
|
0.3
|
13
|
23.9%
|
23
|
Edge – ARIZ
Conclusion: The Diamondback won the first tweo games of this series, 6-3 on Mondy and 4-3 last night.
The Dbacks would seem to have all the edges here.
Offensively, the Dbacks are a top-10 offense, the Phils are probably above average, but all the number point to ARIZ.
The two bullpens are both shaky, but so fat, it’s the Dbacks’ pen that has the better numbers.
That leave the starting pitching matchup and that’s not close. Gallen’s been elite and Suarez has struggled in each of hisa two starts.
Pick – ARIZ 1st 5 and full game MLs in side bets.
HTN @MIL
Starting Pitchers
|
1:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
GB%
|
|
HTN
|
Bielak - R
|
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MIL
|
Houser - L
|
|
(2/3(
|
(1/3)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – NONE
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
|
HTN
|
9
|
8
|
13
|
5
|
21
|
78.1%
|
3
|
0.37
|
2
|
1.17
|
1
|
3.01
|
2
|
28.2%
|
2
|
9.0%
|
8
|
|
MIL
|
9
|
4
|
11
|
5
|
23
|
79.3%
|
2
|
0.45
|
7
|
1.29
|
14
|
3.93
|
16
|
21.3%
|
26
|
9.4%
|
13
|
Edge – HTN big
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
|
HTN
|
4.44
|
16
|
0.309
|
20
|
96
|
20
|
8.4%
|
20
|
0.134
|
26
|
-0.6
|
16
|
21.6%
|
9
|
|
MIL
|
4.19
|
22
|
0.309
|
20
|
93
|
22
|
9.3%
|
7
|
0.152
|
17
|
-3.6
|
26
|
24.9%
|
27
|
Edge – NONE
Conclusion: These teams split the first two games of this series.
Offensively, these two teams are actually closer than I expected, The Astros score a quarter of a run more than the Brewrs with a very slightly better wRC+. Their espective wOBAs are identical.
The bullpen matchup is also close, but the Astros hold most of the edges, albeit by very small margins.
That leaves the two starting pitchers, and you might as well flip a coin. Neither has impressed in their three starts.
I think that the Astros are the better team here and it’s mostly because of their great bullpen.
Pick – HTN full game MLs in a side bet
SF @ MINN
Starting Pitchers
|
1:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
HC%
|
|
SF
|
DeSclafani - R
|
|
(7/9)
|
(2/9)
|
0.99
|
3.09
|
3.90
|
3.17
|
3.71
|
4.04
|
0.264
|
0.309
|
18,7%
|
3.2%
|
45.5%
|
45.0%
|
|
NINN
|
Ryan - R
|
|
(8/9)
|
(0/9)
|
0.89
|
2.25
|
2.30
|
2.33
|
3.12
|
3.01
|
0.234
|
0.239
|
30.4%
|
3.7%
|
36.4%
|
41.5%
|
Edge MINN
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st t bet only
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
|
SF
|
4.35
|
18
|
0.318
|
13
|
101
|
`4
|
8.6%
|
19
|
0.171
|
10
|
-0.1
|
14
|
25.6%
|
28
|
|
MINN
|
4.55
|
13
|
0.313
|
17
|
99
|
16
|
9.2%
|
8
|
0.176
|
8
|
-0.7
|
17
|
25.6%
|
28
|
Edge – NONE
Conclusion: The Giants took the first two games of this series.
Offensively both of the teams possess decent offense. The Twins score about .20 runs more than the Giants with a slightly better ISO and walk rate, but the Giants have the better wOBA. I can’t give either team much of an edge.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and the Twins should have the edge there with Joe Ryan v Anthony DeSclafani.
Both have pitched well, but Ryan has the better WHIP, ERA and K rate. Additonsal all his ERA metrics are about a run better than DeSclafni’s/
I don’t know who is the better team here, but for 5 innings..
Pick – MINN 1st 5 ML in a side bet.
I’ll post the evening games later.