For what it’s worth, last night’s Game 5 was very close, a lot closer than I thought that it would be. Baseball is indeed sometimes a game of inches and last night was one of those times. More time than I could mention, a ball hit an inch or more to one side or the other was the difference between a hit and an out. The same was true of several pitches thrown. The Astros barely escaped Philly with a win, but although it was uncomfortably close of this Astros backer, the Astros got the W and now lead the series three games to two. The series now moves back to HTN for Game 6 and if necessary, Game 7.
I thought that this was the spot for a big play on the Astros, so I had the Astros 1st 5 RL for 2 units and full game ML for 3. I got lucky and it was damned close, but both bets cashed. I finished the evening +4 units, leaving me +126.61 units for the season.
These were three things that stood out to me about Game 5.
First was the surprisingly solid performance by Phils starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard pitched much better than I expected, giving up 2 runs on 3 hits over 3+ innings without walking anyone awhile striking out 4. The two damaging blows were a 1st inning triple by Jose Altuve, who then scored on a Jeremey Pena single and a solo HR by Pena to lead off the 4th thar ended Syndergaard’s evening. I was very surprised that manager Rob Thomson didn’t pull Syndergaard after the 3rd. He was obviously one batter too late.
Second was the gutsy performance by Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander. After 16 years and eight World Series starts, Verlander finally gritted out his first World Series win, giving up 4 hits and 4 walks, but just 1 run (a solo shot by Kyle Schwarber in the bottom of the 1st), over 5 innings with 6 Ks. Verlander got out of a two-out bases-loaded jam in the bottom of the 2nd by striking out Rhys Hoskins. He also escaped a two-out two-on jam in the bottom of the 3rd and stranded a runner on 2nd with two out in the bottom of the 5th.
Third, was the performance of the Astros defense as they got defensive gems from1B Trey Mancini in the 8th and CF Chas McCormick in the 9th. Mancini, the backup first baseman, who replaced 2021 Gold Glove winning 1B Yuri Guriel, after Guriel hurt his right knee in a collision during a rundown. Playing !B for the first time since the regular-season finale, Mancini fell into foul territory and reached back with his left foot to touch the bag to prevent a hit on a Kyle Schwarber GB with two Phillies on base. McCormick ran 91 feet to make a stunning leaping backhand catch against the chain-link fence in front of the right-center scoreboard on a J.T Realmuto drive in the 9th. Defense matters.
Let’s move on to tonight’s Game 6. I know that these breakdowns are very repetitive. What can I say? We have the same two teams playing with the same bullpens and the same offenses. That’s just the way it is in a series.
PHIL @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
8:03
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
PHIL
|
Wheeler - R
|
(19/26)
|
(7/26)
|
1.04
|
2.82
|
3.10
|
2.89
|
3.06
|
3.30
|
0.276
|
0.275
|
26.9%
|
5.6%
|
34.5%
|
37.5%
|
HTN
|
Valdez - L
|
(26/31)
|
(5/31)
|
1.16
|
2.82
|
3.31
|
3.06
|
3.00
|
3.14
|
0.272
|
0.284
|
23.5%
|
8.1%
|
41.4%
|
66.5%
|
Edge – None
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
PHIL
|
28-28
|
42/60
|
0.48
|
14
|
1.39
|
24
|
4.27
|
23
|
70.0%
|
24
|
24.9%
|
9
|
10.7%
|
28
|
HTN
|
22-17
|
53/69
|
0.36
|
2
|
1.14
|
4
|
2.80
|
1
|
76.8%
|
1
|
28.3%
|
1
|
9.2%
|
16
|
Edge – HTN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
PHIL
|
4.61
|
7
|
0.322
|
8
|
106
|
10
|
51.3
|
8
|
0.169
|
6
|
41.0%
|
5
|
8.5%
|
6
|
7.9%
|
16
|
22.4%
|
15
|
HTN
|
4.55
|
8
|
0.324
|
7
|
112
|
6
|
78.6
|
7
|
0.176
|
4
|
38.9%
|
11
|
8.1%
|
10
|
8.7%
|
8
|
19.5%
|
2
|
Edge – HTN
Conclusion: The Phils won Game 1 6-5 last Friday, overcoming a 5-0 deficit to take a 1-0 series lead. The Astros rebounded winning Game 2 on Saturday 5-2, behind a stellar outing from Framber Valdez to even the series at one game apiece. Tuesday night, the Phils won Game 3 in PHIL bombing the Astros 7-0 behind a five-HR barrage and a surprisingly strong outing from Ranger Suarez and Wednesday night the Astros again tied up the series with a 5-0 win, courtesy of a combined no-hitter from Javier Baez and the Astros bullpen. Last night in Game 6, the Astros eked out a 3-2 win in PHIL to take a three to two series lead back to HTN.
Offensively, while the Phils actually scored 0.06 more runs per game during the regular season, it was the Astros who posted the slightly better wOBA, wRC+ and ORAA, as well as the higher walk rate and much lower K rate. However, it should also be noted that the Phils did post the slightly better hard-hit and barrel rates.
In this series, the Phils have scored a total of 17 runs on 27 hits and 20 walks with a whopping 59 Ks. By contrast, the Astros have scored a total of 18 runs on 41 hits and 14 walks with 40 Ks. The biggest difference that I see is the respective K rates. Over the course of the regular season, that Phils struck out almost 3% more often than the Phils and in this series the Phils have whiffed 19 times more than the Astros.
As far as clutch hitting goes, that was close during the regular season. The Phils ranked 11th with a 114 WRC+ with runners in scoring position, while the Astros ranked 2nd with a 124 wRC+. So far in this series, neither team has been all that good. The Phils are just 5 for 29 with runners in scoring position, while the Astros are 8 for 36.
The Phils hit lefties well this season, positing a .334 wOBA (rank #4 and a 115 wRC+ (rank #5). By contrast, the Astros don’t hit righties quite as well, posting a .317 wOBA and a 107 wRC+ (both ranked #9) against them.
The bottom line is that, both of these teams are loaded and can win this game or this series with their bats, but so far the two pitching staffs have done a good job of containing these two explosive offenses..
As for the two bullpens, based on their regular season numbers, this should not be close. the Astros held every single bullpen edge during the regular season and most by a wide margin. In their twelve playoff games, the Astros’ pen now has a 4-1 record and is six-for-six in save opportunities with 8 holds. This unit has been outstanding, giving up just 6 runs on 23 hits (4 HRs) and 19 walks over 45.1 innings with 73 Ks. That comes to a stellar 0.93 WHIP and miniscule 1.19 ERA. The Phils’ pen, on the other hand, while often maligned during the regular season, has performed much better than anyone expected in their sixteen playoff games, at least until Alvarado’s miserable performance in Game 5, posting a 6-0 record and going five-for-six in save opportunities with 9 holds, while giving up 20 runs (18 earned) on 50 hits (7 HRs) and 19 walks over 64 innings with 82 Ks. That comes to a 1.08 WHIP and 2.53 ERA.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers and while it’s not apparent in the numbers, I see a clear edge for the Astros tonight.
Zack Wheeler started 26 regular season games for the Phils this season with 19 grading as above average, including his last 3, and just 7 grading as below. His WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics were all excellent. His wOBA and xwOBA were almost identical and both well below league average with an elite K rate, a solid GB rate and low walk and hard contact rates. In his wild card start at the Cards, Wheeler tossed 6.1 scoreless innings, giving up just 2 hits and a walk, while striking out 4. In his one NLDS start at the Braves, Wheeler wasn’t as good, giving up 3 runs on 4 hits and a walk over 6 innings with 5 Ks, However, in his NLCS Game 1 start in SD, Wheeler was dominant, giving up just 1 hit and 1 walk over 7 scoreless innings while striking out 8. In Game 5 in SD, Wheeler gave up 2 runs on 3 hits over 6 innings with 8 Ks. However, in his Game 2 start in HRN in this series, Wheeler was rocked for 5 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks over 5 innings with just 3 Ks. That’s a total of 10 runs on 16 hits and 6 walks over 30.1 postseason inning with 28 Ks. That comes to a stellar 0.73 WHIP and a 2.97 ERA. Wheeler did not face the Astros this season.
Framber Valdez started 31 regular season games with 26 of them grading as above average and just 5 grading as below. Not only did Valdez only have five below average starts, but two of them were his second and third starts of the season. After that, he reeled off 25 above average regular season starts to just 3 below average ones. Valdez gave up more than 3 earned runs just twice all season and in 21 on those 31 starts it was 2 or less. When Valdez does get in trouble, it’s usually because of his control, which can be iffy. In his five below average starts he walked 16. His WHIP was still good despite the occasional control lapses and his ERA was excellent. Valdez’s ERA metrics were all a little higher than his ERA, probably because of the walks, but they were still quite good and he also generated an incredible better than 66% GB rate. The only potential fly in the ointment was the damned walks and since Valdez mostly kept those down, he had an outstanding season. In his Game 2 ALDS start v the Mariners, he gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks over 5.2 innings in the Astros 4-2 win. In his Game 2 ALCS start v the Yankees, Valdez again gave up 2 runs on 4 hits over 7 innings with 8 Ks in the Astros 3-2 win. Finally in his Game 2 start in this series, he dominated the Phils, giving up just 1 run on 4 hits and 3 walks over 6.1 innings with 9 Ks. That’s a total of 5 runs allowed on 12 hits and 6 walks over 19 playoff innings with 24 Ks and 29 GB outs among the 57 outs that Valdez recorded. That comes to a stellar 0.95 WHIP and a 2.47 ERA. He faced the Phils just once during the regular season, in early October, tossing 5 scoreless innings and scattering 2 hits and a walk while striking out 10 in a 3-2 Astros win. That’s 1 run allowed on 6 hits and 4 walks over 11.1 innings with a whopping 19 Ks!
I’ve tried very hard not to overthink things during these playoffs and so far, for the most part I’ve been able to do that.
Tonight, based on their regular season numbers, we have two elite starting pitchers facing off. The problem is that the Phils will need a healthy Wheeler and I have reservations about how healthy Wheeler really is. I don’t have any hard or conclusive evidence to support that conclusion, but the circumstantial evidence is there. Read between the lines. If Wheeler were really fully healthy, he would have likely been the Game 1 starter instead of Nola and he surely would have been the Game 5 Starter instead of Syndergaard. Wheeler's fastball velocity dropped from an average of 97 mph in his first four postseason starts to 95.2 mph in Game 2 at Minute Maid Park, where he was knocked out after giving up 5 runs (4 earned) in 5 innings. He attributed it to “arm fatigue” (whatever in the hell that really means). Wheeler’s fastball averaged 95.8 mph during the regular season. Several pro cappers that I respect and trust have all expressed the opinion that Wheeler’s not right because he’s not fully healthy and in a recent interview, the great Pedro Martinez expressed the same opinion. Maybe I’m wrong and Wheeler comes out and pitches a gem tonight, but I’m inclined to believe Wheeler is dealing with more than “arm fatigue”. Wheeler will be starting on six days’ rest, so I guess that’s a plus, and he threw a bullpen session Thursday that went without a hitch, according to Phils manager Rob Thomson. We’ll see soon enough.
By contrast. Valdez has been lights out in all three of his postseason starts and in both of his starts v the Phils. He’s also healthy.
Ranger Suarez, who gave the Phils five scoreless innings in Game 3, would be available behind Wheeler if there’s early trouble. Of course, If the Phil don’t have to use Suarez, he would then be available to start Game 7. Otherwise, Thomson would have to turn to Aaron Nola on short rest in what would essentially be a bullpen game.
Despite what we’ve seen so far in these playoffs and this series, I still maintain that the Astros have an edge in the bullpen matchup. Yeah, the Phils’ pen had been much better than I ever expected in these playoffs and in this series, at least until Game 5. I wasn’t convinced and I’m still not. The Astros have the better pen. As for the two offenses, that’s close enough that I’m willing to call it a wash or damned close to it. I still think that the Astros are the slightly better hitting team and the overall stats still support that conclusion, but it’s all very close and the best hitter in this series is probably the Phils Bryce Harper, who is hitting .373 with 6 HRs, 12 runs scored and 13 RBIs in the postseason and one hot hitter can carry a team in one or two games.
As for this game, I give the Astros the starting pitching edge because Valdez is healthy and I don’t think that Wheeler is. I also think that the Astros have the better bullpen and that their offense is at least as good as, and maybe better than the Phils. The Phils are up against it. It’s win of their season’s over. That’s tough to bet against especially since the Astros don’t have to win this game and if they don’t, they’ll still have a Game 7. I wrote in my Game 5 post that a hell of a lot of things would have to go right for the Phils to pull this off or even get to a Game 7. I still feel that way. I like their chances even less tonight. The Astros have almost all the matchup edges here.
My original plan was to pass on this game if I cashed both of my bets on Game5 and I may regret not sticking to that plan. However, I’ve been riding the Astros throughout the playoffs and I think they end this series tonight without any cheating controvery to mar the proceedings, so I’ll take my chances are ride them one more time.
Pick – HTN 1st 5 ML (-140 for 2 units) and HTN full game ML (-142 for 3