LAD @ SD
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Anderson v Blake Snell
The Dodgers took two of three from the Cards in LA over the weekend. They have everything wrapped up including the NL West and the best record in the NL and are just waiting for the playoffs. The Padres took two of three from the Rockies in COL over the weekend and currently hold the second NL wild card spot. The Dodgers are the much better team with the best offenses in baseball and one of the better bullpens. They have also 13 of the 17 games between these two teams. However, the one edge that the Dodgers won’t have tonight is the starting pitching edge.
Tyler Anderson is quietly having a very good season for the Dodgers, much better than anyone expected. He has started 26 games for the Dodgers with 19 grading as above average and 7 grading as below. That leaves him with an excellent WHIP and ERA, but his ERA metrics are all about a half to a full run and a half higher than his ERA. That’s probably because of his .254 BABIP which is more than 30 points lower than his career average and his poor 18.8% K rate.
Blake Snell has now reeled off 10 great starts in his last 12 outings, giving up just 18 runs on 56 hits and 16 walks in those 12 starts since the AS break while striking out a whopping 93 in those 67 innings. That comes out to a 1.06 WHIP and 2.42 ERA over that span. Overall, Snell has now started 22 games with 15 grading as above average and just 7 grading as below. His overall WHIP and ERA are both still a little higher than we normally expect from Snell, but moving in the right direction. His ERA metrics are all around a half a run lower than his ERA with an excellent K rate, but a high walk rate. Still all that said, with the exception of the very high walk rate all of Snell’s numbers are solid and just keep getting better and his fastball touched 99 in his last start.
The Dodgers don’t give a crap about this game, but I don’t trust the Padres with that 4-13 head-to-head record against the Dodgers. I worry that the Dodgers might be in their heads, so I won’t risk a full game bet. That said, Snell has been the much better pitcher over the second half of the season and that alone is woth a five inning bet on the Padres.
Pick – SD 1st 5 ML in a side bet
TEX @ SEA
Starting Pitchers: Jesus Tinoco v Robbie Ray
The Rangers were swept by the Guardians last weekend, dropping all three games, while the Mariners were embarrassing themselves, dropping two of three to the Royals. Amazingly, the Mariners still hold the third AL wild card spot by 3,5 games over the Orioles. In this matchup, the Rangers are statistically the better hitting team, but at least on paper, the Mariners are supposed to have the better bullpen, but after that fiasco on Sunday, I’m not even sure about that. So why in the hell am I on the Mariners tonight? Have I lost my mind? I suppose that’s possible, but I just think hat the Mariners have the much better starting pitcher.
Jesus Tinoco, who has quickly emerged as a valuable reliever for the Rangers after being called up from AAA Round Rock on Sept 1, will make his first career start tonigh, likely seriving as an opener. t. Tinoco has yet to allow a run while scattering 5 hits and 5 walks over 10 innings out of the Rangers bullpen. He probably won't go deep since he hasn't gone longer than 2.1 innings in any of his appearances in the majors or minors this season. Tyson Miller who was scheduled to be called up from AAA Round Rock today could be the designated bulk reliever behind Tinoco.
After struggling badly through the early part of the season, Robbie Ray has been much better since the AS break, with 7 above average starts to just 4 below average ones. In that span, Ray has given up 25 earned runs on 59 his and 12 walks over 60.2 innings with 66 Ks. That comes out to a 1.17 WHIP and 3.71 ERA.
I’m betting that Rays pitches better than Tonico and who ever follows for 5 innings and that the Mariner rebound from that ugly loss on Sunday.
Pick – SEA 1st 5 ML in a few parlays