For what it’s worth, yesterday was an unbelievably great day. I used nine teams (15 sides) in a round robin of a staggering 91 parlays, the Phils 1st 5 and full games, the Twins 1st 5 and full games, the Mariners 1st 5 and full games, the Guardians full game, The Mets 1st 5, the Cards 1st 5 and full games, the Astros 1st 5, the Dodgers 1st 5 and full games, and the Giants 1st 5 and full games.
I only had two losers on my parlay card, the Phils full game and the Giants full game. I also pushed with the Phils 1st 5, the Dodgers 1st 5 and the Giants 1st 5. Amazingly, everything else got there.
When the smoke all cleared, I finished the day a whopping +45.72 units, leaving me +82.27 units for the season. Considering where I was about a week ago, that’s pretty incredible.
This season has been really frustrating at times. I’ve never had such a volatile season before, but we still have about a quarter of the season to go. We have a small slate today with several day games. Yesterday, I was concerned d because I thought that I liked too many games, but it worked out amazingly well. Today, I don’t like many teams, just the Cards, the Mets 1st 5 and the Padres. I’m suddenly up substantially for the season. Here’s my very small parlay card for today.
Here is my breakdowns for the one afternoon game that I’m on. I’ll post more as I finish the caps and the write ups.
COL @ STL
Starting Pitchers
COL
|
Senzatela - R
|
(8/18)
|
(9/18)
|
1.65
|
4.67
|
5.22
|
4.12
|
4.11
|
0.382
|
0.351
|
12.9%
|
5.7%
|
41.4%
|
49.2%
|
STL
|
Wainwright - R
|
(16/23)
|
(7/23)
|
1.19
|
3.27
|
4.30
|
3.71
|
3.90
|
0.301
|
0.322
|
19.8%
|
6.6%
|
36.9%
|
45.3%
|
Edge – STL
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
COL
|
21-22
|
32/45
|
0.59
|
29
|
1.41
|
28
|
4.71
|
29
|
65.9%
|
30
|
20.2%
|
30
|
10.0%
|
25
|
STL
|
29-14
|
27/41
|
0.45
|
10
|
1.24
|
15
|
3.78
|
12
|
73.9%
|
11
|
21.6%
|
24
|
8.7%
|
11
|
Edge – STL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
COL
|
4.51
|
9
|
0.321
|
9
|
92
|
22
|
-47.0
|
25
|
0.144
|
19
|
7.7%
|
20
|
36.6%
|
20
|
6.1%
|
26
|
20.5%
|
5
|
STL
|
4.71
|
5
|
0.323
|
5
|
111
|
6
|
64.0
|
3
|
0.164
|
9
|
8.5%
|
9
|
36.3%
|
23
|
7.4%
|
15
|
20.5%
|
5
|
Edge – STL
Conclusion: The Cards won again 5-1 last night after winning a close one 5-4 on Tuesday night and now lead the Brewers by 3 games in the NL Central, while the Rockies, who have now lost their last four, aren’t contending for anything this season. Offensively, the Cards have a huge edge here with top ML MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt leading the way. The Rockies are very dependent on Coors field for a lot of their offense, averaging 5.67 runs per game at Coors and just 3.21 on the road. As for the bullpens, that also looks like a mismatch with the Cards holding almost every statistical edge. That leaves the two starting pitchers and the Cards have that edge as well.
Antonio Senzatela has now started 18 games for the Rockies this season with more below average starts (9) than above average ones (8). His WHIP is very high and his ERA is high with mediocre ERA metrics. His wOBA is around 70 points higher than league average and while his xwOBA is more than 40 points lower, it is still more than 30 points higher than league average. Senzatela has a terrible K rate and a fairly high hard contact rate, but he is at least generating GBs at a near 50% rate. He relies heavily on GBs to limit the damage, but his very high .375 BBIP tells me that approach hasn’t worked all that well this season. That BABIP is 57 points higher than his career average so maybe there’s some hope for improvement, but I wouldn’t count on it. Between his 127 hits allowed and 23 walks issued, that’s 150 baserunners in just under 91 innings, I’d say Senzatela’s been very lucky to have only given up 51 runs. It could have been much worse. This will be the first time that Senzatela has faced the Cards this season, but he’s 0-4 in his 7 starts away from Coors with an extremely high 1.67 WHIP and 6.45 ERA.
Adam Wainwright had an amazing and totally unexpected 2021. He was better than any 39-year-old has a right to be. I kept waiting for regression to hit, but it never did. All that said, I didn’t believe that ink that he would pitch anywhere near that well again and he hasn’t. However, at 40 now, and he’s been very solid again this season, with more than twice as many above average starts (16) as below average ones (7) in his 23 outings. His WHIP is good and so is his ERA. His ERA metrics are all between a half to a full a run higher than his ERA, telling me that Wainwright hasn’t pitched quite as well as his ERA would suggest and that he’s ’s probably been lucky. Wainwright’s wOBA and xwOBA are both right around league average with a pedestrian K rate. Wainwright compensates for the lack of Ks with a solid GB rate. It should also be noted that Wainwright has been much better at home. In his 12 home starts he has posted a 1.09 WHIP and a 2.30 ERA, compared to a 1.32 WHIP and a 4.43 ERA in his 11 road starts. Wainwright has not faced the Rockies this season.
The Cards are the much better team here, especially at home where they are 39-21, Wainwright is also the better starting pitcher and I’m always looking to fade the Rockies away from Coors, where they are a miserable 18-38.
Pick – STL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays