For what it’s worth, yesterday was a less than stellar day, but it wasn’t a catastrophe. I used five teams (8 sides) in a round robin of parlays, the Phils 1st 5 and full games, the Blue Jays 1st 5, the Guardians 1st 5 and full games, the Cards full game and the Mariners 1st 5 and full games. I also had two side bets on the Marlins 1st 5 and the Brewers 1st 5. Finally, I also played one 1st 5 unders in the Astros/White Sox game.
I had three losers on my parlay card, the Guardians 1st 5 and full games, and the Mariners 1st 5. I also had one push with the Blue Jays 1st 5. I had my doubts about the Guardians and I said so in my post Zach Plesac, but I ignored them and bet the Guardians 1st 5 mostly because I was hell bent on fading Garrett Hill. That’s a lousy reason to make a bet and I paid the price for doing it. The Guardians had the tying run on 2rd in the bottom of the 9th, but couldn’t bring him in. The Mariner’s Robbie Ray gave up a two-run HR in the 1st to put the Mariners in an early 2-0 hole and for some reason the Mariner didn’t get untracked against Jose Suarez until the top of the 6thwhen they finally took a 3-2 lead in the top of the 6th, one inning too late for my 1st 5 bet. At least they won the full game easily 8-2. The Blue jays squandered a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the 5th and I had to settle for a push in what should have been a win. The Yanks have imploded since the AS break, but the Jays haven’t been able to make any inroads in the AL East. How pathetic is that?
When the smoke all cleared, I finished the day -3.96 units, leaving me +36.55 units for the season. Considering where I was just a week ago, I’ll certainly take that.
This season has been really frustrating at times. I’ve never had such a volatile season before, but twe still have about a quarter of the season to go. We have a full slate complete with several day games. I’n concerned because I lilk too many games. Today, I really like the Phils, Twins, Mariners, Guardians, Mets, Astros, Dodgers and Giants. I had to bet early this morning because I didn’t think that some of the numbers I got would be there if I waited, such as NYM 1st 5 with Scherzer (-160) and HTN 1st 5 (-150 with Valdez)? Unless I’m missing something, both of those numbers should be higher, So I bet everything early. I’m finally up a decent amount and I’m risking it all and even a little more? Even I have to question myself, but I like these teams so we’ll see how it all turns out. Here’s my very large parlay card for today. May the ettig god be with me.
ML Parlays
|
Team 1
|
Tean 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
MINN 1st 5
|
162
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
MINN full game
|
160
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
SEA 1st 5
|
165
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
SEA full game
|
160
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
CLEV full game
|
156
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
NYM 1st 5
|
179
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
HTN 1st 5
|
186
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
LAD 1st 5
|
173
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
LAD full game
|
171
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
151
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
SF full game
|
154
|
1
|
|
PHIL full game
|
MINN 1st 5
|
150
|
1
|
|
PHIL full game
|
MINN full game
|
149
|
1
|
|
PHIL full game
|
SEA 1st 5
|
153
|
1
|
|
PHIL full game
|
SEA full game
|
148
|
1
|
|
PHIL full game
|
CLEV full game
|
145
|
1
|
|
PHIL full game
|
NYM 1st 5
|
166
|
1
|
|
PHIL full game
|
HTN 1st 5
|
173
|
1
|
|
PHIL full game
|
LAD 1st 5
|
160
|
1
|
|
PHIL full game
|
LAD full game
|
159
|
1
|
|
PHIL full game
|
SF 1st 5
|
140
|
1
|
|
PHIL full game
|
SF full game
|
142
|
1
|
|
MINN 1st 5
|
SEA 1st 5
|
136
|
1
|
|
MINN 1st 5
|
SEA full game
|
131
|
1
|
|
MINN 1st 5
|
CLEV full game
|
128
|
1
|
|
MINN 1st 5
|
NYM 1st 5
|
148
|
1
|
|
MINN 1st 5
|
HTN 1st 5
|
154
|
1
|
|
MINN 1st 5
|
LAD 1st 5
|
142
|
1
|
|
MINN 1st 5
|
LAD full game
|
-141
|
1
|
|
MINN 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
124
|
1
|
|
MINN 1st 5
|
SF full game
|
126
|
1
|
|
MINN full game
|
SEA 1st 5
|
105
|
1
|
|
MINN full game
|
SEA full game
|
135
|
1
|
|
MINN full game
|
CLEV full game
|
130
|
1
|
|
MINN full game
|
NYM 1st 5
|
147
|
1
|
|
MINN full game
|
HTN 1st 5
|
153
|
1
|
|
MINN full game
|
LAD 1st 5
|
141
|
1
|
|
MINN full game
|
LAD full game
|
140
|
1
|
|
MINN full game
|
SF 1st 5
|
122
|
1
|
|
MINN full game
|
SF full game
|
125
|
1
|
|
SEA 1st 5
|
CLEV full game
|
131
|
1
|
|
SEA 1st 5
|
NYM 1st 5
|
151
|
1
|
|
SEA 1st 5
|
HTN 1st 5
|
158
|
1
|
|
SEA 1st 5
|
LAD 1st 5
|
146
|
1
|
|
SEA 1st 5
|
LAD full game
|
144
|
1
|
|
SEA 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
127
|
1
|
|
SEA 1st 5
|
SF full game
|
129
|
1
|
|
SEA full game
|
CLEV full game
|
126
|
1
|
|
SEA full game
|
NYM 1st 5
|
146
|
1
|
|
SEA full game
|
HTN 1st 5
|
152
|
1
|
|
SEA full game
|
LAD 1st 5
|
140
|
1
|
|
SEA full game
|
LAD full game
|
139
|
1
|
|
SEA full game
|
SF 1st 5
|
122
|
1
|
|
SEA full game
|
SF full game
|
124
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game
|
NYM 1st 5
|
143
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game
|
HTN 1st 5
|
149
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game
|
LAD 1st 5
|
137
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game
|
LAD full game
|
136
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game
|
SF 1st 5
|
119
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game
|
SF full game
|
121
|
1
|
|
NYM 1st 5
|
HTN 1st 5
|
1.71
|
1
|
|
NYM 1st 5
|
LAD 1st 5
|
158
|
1
|
|
NYM 1st 5
|
LAD full game
|
157
|
1
|
|
NYM 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
138
|
1
|
|
NYM 1st 5
|
SF full game
|
141
|
1
|
|
HTN 1st 5
|
LAD 1st 5
|
165
|
1
|
|
HTN 1st 5
|
LAD full game
|
164
|
1
|
|
HTN 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
144
|
1
|
|
HTN 1st 5
|
SF full game
|
147
|
1
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
133
|
1
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
SF full game
|
235
|
1
|
|
LAD full game
|
SF 1st 5
|
132
|
1
|
|
LAD full game
|
SF full game
|
134
|
1
|
Here are the breakdowns for the two earliest game. I’ll post more as I finish the caps and write ups.
PHIL @ CIN
13:35
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
PHIL
|
Suarez - L
|
(10/20)
|
(10/20)
|
1.32
|
3.52
|
3.64
|
3.81
|
3.74
|
0.310
|
0.298
|
19.6%
|
8.6%
|
30.9%
|
56.1%
|
CIN
|
Lodolo - L
|
(4/10)
|
(8/10)
|
1.66
|
4.72
|
4.13
|
4.41
|
3.84
|
0.315
|
0.368
|
28.6%
|
10.7%
|
33.9%
|
41.7%
|
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
PHIL
|
24-17
|
31/42
|
0.48
|
13
|
1.33
|
21
|
3.88
|
15
|
71.9%
|
17
|
24.8%
|
9
|
10.6%
|
28
|
CIN
|
21-15
|
24/40
|
0.59
|
29
|
1.43
|
29
|
4.93
|
30
|
70.5%
|
21
|
23.3%
|
15
|
10.9%
|
29
|
Edge – PHIL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
PHIL
|
4.66
|
7
|
0.318
|
11
|
102
|
12
|
16.7
|
11
|
0.169
|
7
|
7.8%
|
17
|
40.6%
|
6
|
8.6%
|
6
|
22.4%
|
16
|
CIN
|
4.22
|
20
|
0.303
|
24
|
88
|
27
|
-70.4
|
27
|
0.136
|
24
|
7.7%
|
20
|
35.6%
|
26
|
5.9%
|
28
|
24.2%
|
26
|
Edge Phil
Conclusion: The Phils won the first two games of this series 4-3 on Monday night and 11-4 last night. They won’t catch the Mets in the NL East, still trailing by 9.5 games, but currently hold the 2nd NL wild card spot by 1.5 games over the Padres. The Reds have the 5th worst record in baseball with no shot at the postseason. Offensively, this looks like a mismatch. The Phils hit much better than the Reds and it’s not close. As for the two bullpens, while I don’t really trust the Phils pen, the numbers say that across the board, the Phils pen is better than the Reds pen. That leaves the two starting pitchers.
Ranger Suarez has now started 20 games for the Phils this season with10 grading as above average and 10 grading as below. His WHIP is on the high side very high and hence mediocre, but his ERA is solid as are his ERA metrics although they are all a little higher than his ERA. Suarez’s wOBA and xWOBA are both right around league average, with a pedestrian K rate and a high walk rate for someone who doesn’t miss that many bats. He is at least generating GBs at a much better than 50% clip and limiting his hard contact. Other than a 9% lower K rate, Suarez holds all the other statistical edges in this matchup and he's pitching really well right now. Since the beginning of July, Suarez has given up just 7 runs (4 earned on 21 hits and 6 walks over 28.1 innings with 25 Ks. That comes out to a 0.95 WHIP and 1.27 ERA over his last 5 starts.
Lodolo has started 10 games for the Reds with more below average starts (6) thatn above average ones. While Nick Lodolo’s WHIP and ERA are both very high, his ERA metrics are mostly a half a run better than his ERA, but his xwOBA is about 50 points higher than his actual one? Now factor in a dominating K rate and a low hard contact rate , but a high walk rate and a very high .396 BABIP and you get the pitching contradiction that is Nick Lodolo. His pure stuff with that impressive K rate makes him one of those “on any given day” guys.
The Phisl have the much better offense, as they showed again last night, the better bullpen and probably the better starting pitcher, but I’m not willing to fade a guy with Lodolo’s raw stuff for five innings.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
KC @ MINN
Starting Pitchers
1:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
KC
|
Lynch - L
|
(8/18)
|
(10/18)
|
1.51
|
4.52
|
4.51
|
4.08
|
4.32
|
0.330
|
0.329
|
29.1%
|
9.0%
|
46.6%
|
39.5%
|
MINN
|
Mahle
|
(11/21)
|
(10/21)
|
1.21
|
4.26
|
3.38
|
3.77
|
3.94
|
0.302
|
0.288
|
25.8%
|
8.7%
|
37.1%
|
36.2%
|
Edge – MINN
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
KC
|
24-20
|
26/42
|
0.58
|
28
|
1.49
|
30
|
4.67
|
28
|
69.8%
|
24
|
20.6%
|
27
|
11.5%
|
30
|
MINN
|
25-25
|
22/44
|
0.48
|
13
|
1.27
|
17
|
3.94
|
18
|
74.3%
|
9
|
24.5%
|
10
|
9.1%
|
16
|
Edge – MINN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
KC
|
3.89
|
24
|
0.304
|
22
|
96
|
21
|
-22.0
|
22
|
0.137
|
23
|
7.8%
|
17
|
37.4%
|
16
|
7.0%
|
18
|
21.1%
|
9
|
MINN
|
4.50
|
11
|
0.322
|
8
|
110
|
7
|
37.5
|
8
|
0.165
|
8
|
8.6%
|
9
|
42.0%
|
4
|
9.6%
|
3
|
21.6%
|
12
|
Edge – MINN
Conclusion: The Twins won the first two games of this series 4-2 on Monday and 9-0 last night behind a stellar outing by Sonny Gray. They now trail the Guardians by just 1 game in the AL Central and are also just 2 out in the AL wild card race. The Royals are long out of any playoff contention and already looking to next season, by playing kids. Offensively, the Twins are much better with a well above average hitting attack, while the anemic Royals rank as well below average. The same goes for these two bullpens. The Twins made move at the trade deadline to fortify their pen and rank as better than the Royals in almost every statistical category. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and the numbers seem to give the Twins the edge there as well.
Daniel Lynch has started 18 games with more below average start (10) than above average ones (8). His WHIP is very high and so is his ERA with ERA metrics that are all mediocre. His wOBA and xWOBA are both a little higher than league average with a good K rate, but a high walk rate and very high hard contact rate.
Tyler Mahle has started 21 games, 19 for the Reds and 2 fo the Twins this season, with 11 grading as above average and 10 grading as below. His WHIP is decent, but his ERA is mediocre. However, his ERA metrics are all about a half a run to a full run lower than his ERA. His xwOBA is also about 15 points lower than his actual wOBA with is already a little lower than league average. That all tells me that Mahle has probably pitched a little better than his ERA would suggest. Mahle’s K rate is also good, striking out over a batter per inning. His walk rate’s not geat, but it isn’t quite as high as Lynch’s. In his 2 starts after joining the Twins, Mahle gave up 4 runs on 5 hits (3 HRS) and a walk over 6 innings with 5 Ks in the Twins 6-5 win over the Jays. He then shut out the Angels over 6 innings, 3 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6. The addition of Mahle has upgraded the Twins starting rotation.
The Twins have all the edges here and they have feasted on the Royals (8-3). Daniel Lynch has never impressed me, but Tyler Mahle has.
Pick – MINN 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays