For what it’s worth, yesterday was a frustrating day. I used 4 teams (8 sides) in a round robin of parlays, The Padres 1st 5 and full games, the Dodgers 1st 5 and full games, the Astros 1st 5 and full games, the Giants 1st 5 and full games. I also had side bets on the Phils 1st 5 and the under in both the PHIL/NYM game and the CLEV/TOR.
The only loser on my parlay card was the Dodgers 1st 5 and full games. The Dodgers were shut out by Brady Singer and Co. That was a shocker. How often do the Dodgers not score a single run? I’ve seen Singer pitch that well before, but not often. I also lost all three of my side bets. I finished the day -0.99 units, leaving me +20.55 units for the season. Like I said, it was a frustrating day.
This season continues to be frustrating as well. I’ve never had such a volatile season before. Today is another day and maybe things might be looking up some. I still have time to turn this around. Most of my breakdowns aren’t finished yet, but here is my card for today
ML Parlays
|
Team 1
|
Tean 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
CLEV full game
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
133
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game
|
PHIL full game
|
132
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game
|
NYY 1st 5
|
110
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game
|
LAD 1st 5
|
145
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game
|
LAD full game
|
137
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game
|
SF 1st 5
|
126
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game
|
SF full game
|
124
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
NYY 1st 5
|
125
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
LAD 1st 5
|
164
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
LAD full game
|
156
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
145
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
SF full game
|
142
|
1
|
|
PHIL full game
|
NYY 1st 5
|
124
|
1
|
|
PHIL full game
|
LAD 1st 5
|
164
|
1
|
|
PHIL full game
|
LAD full game
|
255
|
1
|
|
PHIL full game
|
SF 1st 5
|
144
|
1
|
|
PHIL full game
|
SF full game
|
141
|
1
|
|
NYY 1st 5
|
LAD 1st 5
|
136
|
1
|
|
NYY 1st 5
|
LAD full game
|
129
|
1
|
|
NYY 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
119
|
1
|
|
NYY 1st 5
|
SF full game
|
116
|
1
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
157
|
1
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
SF full game
|
154
|
1
|
|
LAD full game
|
SF 1st 5
|
149
|
1
|
|
LAD full game
|
SF full game
|
146
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
Side
|
MIA 1st 5
|
|
107
|
1
|
|
HTN 1st 5
|
|
-125
|
1
|
|
HTN full game
|
|
-129
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
Totals
|
SD @ MIA 1st 5 U 3
|
|
-105
|
1
|
|
SEA @ LAA 1st 5 Under 3,5
|
|
-120
|
1
|
Here is the one afternoon breakdown. The rest will come later.
DET @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
3:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
DET
|
Hutchison
|
(3/9)
|
(6/9)
|
1.47
|
4.45
|
5.20
|
4.32
|
5.03
|
0.322
|
0.350
|
14.4%
|
10.6%
|
32.5%
|
41.8%
|
CLEV
|
Civale - R
|
(5/13)
|
(8/13)
|
1.41
|
6.05
|
4.61
|
4.07
|
4.06
|
0.352
|
0.332
|
21.9%
|
5.9%
|
40.2%
|
37.6%
|
Edge – CLEV
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
DET
|
23-24
|
25/35
|
0.43
|
6
|
1.23
|
12
|
3.24
|
5
|
71.3%
|
18
|
22.8%
|
17
|
9.1%
|
15
|
CLEV
|
31-13
|
30/42
|
0.43
|
6
|
1.18
|
5
|
3.40
|
7
|
74.6%
|
7
|
25.3%
|
8
|
8.6%
|
10
|
Edge – CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
DET
|
3.17
|
30
|
0.272
|
30
|
75
|
30
|
-124.0
|
30
|
0.106
|
30
|
6.5%
|
29
|
35.8%
|
26
|
6.0%
|
27
|
24.0%
|
26
|
CLEV
|
4.35
|
16
|
0.306
|
17
|
99
|
16
|
2.9
|
14
|
0.133
|
26
|
7.4%
|
25
|
34.0%
|
30
|
5.1%
|
30
|
18.5%
|
1
|
Edge – CLEV
Conclusion: The Guardians took two of three from the Blue Jays in TOR over the weekend. They now lead the AL Central by 2.5 games over the Twins. The Tigers are on a 7-game losing streak after getting swept by the White Sox in CHI and before that getting swept by these Guardians in DET. Offensively, the Guardians still rate as mediocre, but that still makes them much better than the anemic Tigers who possess the worst offense in the league. The Guardians also have a very good bullpen, one that rates as better than the Tigers pen. That brings us to the two starting pitchers.
Drew Hutchison is nothing more than a career journeyman with a career 1.41 WHIP and 4.91 ERA. He has started 9 games for the Tigers with more that grades as below average (6) than graded as above average (3). In those 9 starts, Hutchison has given up 25 runs (22 earned) on 49 hits and 16 walks over 45 innings with 23 Ks. That comes out to a 1.44 WHIP and 4.40 ERA and certainly explains the high WHIP, ERA, ERA metrics and xwOBA. His 38/28 overall K/BB ratio isn’t helping either.
Aaron Civale, has now started 13 games with 5 grading as above average and 8 grading as below. That is not an impressive ratio until you discover that his first 4 starts after returning from the IL all graded as below average. Civale’s overall numbers don’t look very good, but he has gotten progressively better , posting a 1.00 WHIP and 3.50 ERA in his four starts since July 1.
While I am still not willing to risk a 1st 5 wager on Civale, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Guardians win the 1st 5. I’ll confine my wager to a full game play on the clearly better team, the Guardians.
Pick – CLEV full game ML in a series of parlays.