CLEV @ TOR
Starting Pitchers: Shane Bieber v Kevin Gausman
The Jays won a tight 2-1 game yesterday to even this series. Bieber and Gausman are both having very good seasons. The logic here is simple. I expect two very good pitchers to shit down two good offenses for five innings.
Pick – 1st 5 Under 3.5
PHIL @ NYM
Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler v Chris Bassitt
The Mets evened the series last night 1-0 behind a stellar outing from Jacob deGrom who outpitched Aaron Nola 1-0 over the first five innings. I’m expecting more low scoring today with two more excellent hurlers facing off. As for the side, Wheeler’s WHIP. ERA and ERA metrics ae all better than Bassitt’s.
Picks – PHIL 1st 5 ML and 1st Under 3.5
LAD @ KC
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Anderson v Brady Singer
The Dodgers won a blowout last night. The Dodgers have all the edges here and all by huge margins. Offensively, The Dodgers are the best in baseball and the Royals are one of the worst. The same holds true for the two bullpens. As for the two starting pitchers, that not as lopsided in that both have pitched pretty well. I’ll still give Anderson the edge, but how much is because he’s pitching for the much better team, I can’t say for sure, but even if I consider them even (and I don’t), give me the better team.
Pick LAD 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
OAK @ HTN
Starting Pitchers: Cole Irvin v Cristian Javier
The Astros rolled to an easy will last night, and why not? They are, after all, the much better team. Offensively, this looks like a huge mismatch as the Astros hold every single statistical edge and all by huge margins. The bullpen matchup looks equally lopsided as the Astros have one of the best pens in baseball, while the A’s pen is well below average. That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and that a bit of a question mark. Irvin has actually been decent despite pitching for such a bad team. Javier has shown flashes, but is still too inconsistent for my taste, but with all the other edges that the Astros have, they deserve to be heavy favorite. The amazing thing to me remains that these two teams have now met 14 times already this season and the Astros have only won 8. The A’s only have 41 wins and 6 of them were against the Astros? That makes no sense to me. The Astros are the way better team here. They have the way better offense and bullpen.
Pick – HTN 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
PITT @ SF
Starting Pitchers: Zach Thompson v Alex Wood
The Giants shut out the Pirates last night, behind a great outing from Logan Webb. Offensively, this still looks like a mismatch. The Giants have an above average offense, while the Pirates have one of the worst in the league. As for the two bullpens, they both suck, so I’ll call that a wash. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that also looks like a mismatch.
I’ve been fading Zach Thompson all season and I’ve made money doing so. Thompson has now started 17 games for the Pirates, with just 4 grading as above average and 15 grading as below, including his last 4 and 8 of his last 8. He has a high WHIP and ERA, and his ERA metrics are totally consistent with that high ERA. His WOBA is higher than league average and his xwOBA is even higher. Thompson’s K rate is mediocre and his walk rate is high for a guy who doesn’t miss many bats. There’s just not much to like about Zach Thompson, so I’ll keep right on fading him. By contrast, Alex Wood has a 13/8 ratio of good starts to bad, with a mediocre ERA, but ERA metrics that are all good and at least a half a run better than his ERA. Wood’s not stellar, but he has been much better than Thompson.
The Giants are the much better team here with the much better offense. I still don’t trust their bullpen, but it’s no worse than the Pirates pen. Wood looks to be vastly superior to Thompson.
Pick – SF 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
I'm outta here. Have a great day!