Last year I didn’t start following these plays until a few weeks before the ASG, so I don’t know the results of early season games. Since pitchers take a few weeks to get into form and batters have the edge during that time, I’m hoping that’s the reason for the piss poor record so far. Or the cappers could just suck balls. Who knows. Onto today!
Do well, everyone!
0-3 yesterday, 12-15 season. PW went 0-2(5-10 season) while BP went 0-2(8-7 season).
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Keith(maybe this guys is good considering he goes by one name, you know, like Prince)
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets: NRFI (-125)
These teams opened the season with a 4-game series in Miami and now will head to Queens for a 3-game series. In the first 4 games between these NL East opponents, the NRFI was 3-1, and that includes when tonight’s starters, Tylor Megill and Edward Cabrera, started. Tonight’s starters took the mound in game 3 of the series, and both pitchers had solid outings. Megill went 5 innings and surrendered 2 runs on 6 hits with 7 strikeouts, but more importantly, he got through the first inning without allowing a run. He did allow a hit and a walk in the opening frame, but 2 strikeouts and a ground out closed the door on the inning.
Cabrera could be an X-factor in the Marlins rotation this season. He has so much potential and one of the highest-velocity changeups I’ve ever seen. When he faced the Mets last week, he walked two men in the first inning, which could have been some debut jitters, but he worked around the free passes and got through the inning unscathed. Pitching was the story of the series in Miami, and I expect that to continue at Citi Field. I’m taking the NRFI between two teams that have failed to show they can score consistently in the first frame.
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Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants: NRFI (-113)
The Giants were the most profitable NRFI team at home last season. The NRFI hit in 64% of games in San Francisco — the highest rate of any stadium. It was mostly a combination of poor hitting in pitcher-friendly conditions, and that should remain the same in 2023. The Giants recorded 2 high-scoring wins against the White Sox in their series in the South Side which has skewed their season stats because if you take out those 2 outliers, it shows who the Giants really are. They have a below-average offense that is not capable of scoring in bunches, even if they are facing Brad Keller.
Keller and the Royals have had a rather sluggish start to the season. They finished a 7-game homestand with just 1 win, and that was the same game they scored their only first-inning run in. However, the Royals were facing Jose Berrios, who has been horrendous in the last year and a half, so I’m taking that opening frame score with a grain of salt. Kansas City will be facing Alex Cobb, who had a solid 1st start with 6 strikeouts in 3.2 innings to the Yankees. Cobb returns home to San Francisco for his 2nd start of the season, which should help the chances of the NRFI. The veteran was outstanding at home last season with a 2.68 ERA in 16 starts, and facing a slumping Kansas City lineup should be just what Cobb needs.
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Austin MacMillan
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds NRFI (-136 FanDuel)
The Reds will be sending their presumptive ace of the future, Hunter Greene, out to the mound to start on Friday afternoon. The 23-year-old former #2 overall pick doesn’t have a ton of priors to rely on at the major league level, but what we do know is that his stuff is absolutely electric.
Greene can throw it as hard as anybody, ranking in the 99th percentile in fastball velocity and 81st in spin rate. This helped him achieve an 88th percentile whiff rate and a 91st percentile K%, only giving up an xBA of .220. Greene pitched very well in his Opening Day start before he lost control of the strike zone in the fifth inning, which could just be a result of inexperience going deeper in ball games at the MLB level. I like him to get out to another good start against a Phillies lineup that has really been struggling, averaging just 2.2 runs per game over their last five, only scoring a run in the first inning in one of those games.
Meanwhile, the Phillies will be starting Zack Wheeler, who will be starting this season on the heels of an outstanding 2022 season. Wheeler ranked well above league average in all advanced metrics that are pertinent to this betting market; he does not walk batters (83rd percentile BB%), he avoids hard contact (75th percentile xSLG, 76th percentile hard hit %, 94th percentile average exit velo), and he induces the swing and miss (74th percentile K%, 83rd percentile chase rate). I trust Wheeler, one of the more underrated veteran pitchers in the entire league, to navigate the top of the Reds’ lineup without much difficulty.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners NRFI (-130 FanDuel)
I’m relying less on seasons prior for this pick, as neither starting pitcher’s advanced metrics will jump off the page at you. Instead, I’m leaning on the fact that we’ve actually already seen this Civale vs. Gilbert pitching matchup this year, and it was a good one. Civale tossed seven innings of no-run ball, only surrendering two hits and one walk.
Gilbert did his part as well, pitching six innings, with his only blemish being a Josh Naylor HR in the fourth inning. He fanned seven batters while only giving up one walk and four hits. Much like Hunter Greene from the Reds, Gilbert is a former first-round draft pick with all the potential in the world. He’s only 25 years old, with great fastball velo (96-97 MPH average) and extension on his pitches (99th percentile). I like Gilbert to build off of his stellar first outing against a team he’s already pitched against.
Civale is a little bit of a different pitcher, who generates a very high spin rate on his fastball and curveball (95th and 94th percentile, respectively) to generate swings and misses. He ranks above league average in chase rate, K%, and expected ERA. He and Gilbert are both proficient at not walking batters, both issuing walks at a sub-5% rate. Much like Gilbert, I expect Civale to have success getting through this lineup that he’s already familiar with. I think the weather will help this play out as well, as it’s going to be a chilly day this afternoon in Cleveland.