Thanks, S! Love the input and looks like BP agrees with you on a couple. Def gonna take a look at those.
2-1 yesterday, 12-8 season. PW went 0-1(5-6 season) while BP went 2-0(8-3 season).
Last year Mark Lammey was the capper for PW on most of the days. I’ve yet to see him pick, instead there’s been a few different guys. Mark was really solid last year, hope he returns.
Have a great day, all!
Make sure to notice the Pirates/Bsox pick is a YRFI
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Caleb Wilfinger
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox: YRFI (-110)
If you’ve watched a game involving the Red Sox over the first 5 days of the season, you’ve probably noticed that Boston has serious issues with its pitching staff. Boston has allowed a whopping 30 runs through 4 games, as the Red Sox haven’t been able to locate a consistent arm in the starting rotation or the bullpen to this point. Corey Kluber started off the season on a sour note, surrendering 5 runs and walking 4 batters before being yanked from the game in the 4th inning on Opening Day. I don’t expect him to fare much better against the likes of O’Neill Cruz, Bryan Reynolds and a confident Pirates lineup in a hitters’ park.
Even if the Pirates are unable to score, we still have a good shot to cash this ticket with the hosts. Boston has certainly had its issues with pitching so far this season, but the Red Sox are producing at the plate. Between Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, Adam Duvall and rookie Masataka Yoshida, Boston is scoring in bunches over its first 4 games in 2023. That trend should continue in this one, as they’ll face off against Mitch Keller. Keller struggled against the Reds on Opening Day and has consistently been near the bottom of baseball in exit velocity, hard hit rate and wOBA over the last few seasons. Look for this potent Boston offense to pounce and scratch across a run in the early going.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees: NRFI (-130)
In what should be the premier pitching matchup of the day, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees will continue their series in the Bronx with a pair of aces on the mound. Gerrit Cole is fresh off a terrific start on Opening Day, which should give the veteran right-hander plenty of confidence against a struggling Phillies lineup. Philadelphia’s top-of-the-order doesn’t have much experience or success off Cole, including Trea Turner and Alec Bohm. And while Nick Castellanos is 7-of-16 lifetime in this matchup, Cole likely won’t have to face the right fielder until the 2nd inning if he sets down the side in order. I’ll bank on another strong start from the best pitcher in New York.
On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Aaron Nola. While he struggled mightily against the Rangers in his first start of the season, Nola is still as reliable as they come in baseball these days. The Phillies ace was in the top 10% of all qualified starters in xERA, xWOBA and hard hit rate a season ago. Additionally, Nola was in the top 1% of the league in walk percentage, which is key against a Yankees lineup that you don’t want to give any free bases. The top of the order for New York does have a solid history against Nola, but much of that was in a small sample size and can’t be completely trusted. This is still one of the game’s best pitchers and he should start fast on Wednesday.
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Kurt Blakeway
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, 12:35 PM ET
Marcus Stroman vs. Hunter Greene
I know what you are thinking; why on earth would you bet the NRFI in this game? It hasn’t hit in the first two games in this series.
While this is true, this series has had abysmal starting pitching. Despite scoring a combined eight runs in the first innings, it was against guys like Luis Cessa, Hayden Wesneski, Drew Smyly, and Connor Overton, who are not exactly the cream of the crop.
Today we get the aces of these teams’ staff. Stroman and Greene are making their second starts of the season and are 1-0 in NRFIs in 2023.
Last season Hunter Greene was 9-2 (82%) in home NRFIs, while Marcus Stroman, the NRFI, hit at a 92% rate in his road starts. Combined, that is a 75% implied probability hit rate.
Bet: 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-130)
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Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins, 1:10 PM ET
Pablo Lopez vs Jesus Luzardo
Pablo Lopez had a solid first impression on Twins fans. In his team debut, Lopez pitched five shutout innings, giving up only two hits while striking out eight. Today he gets to face his former team, the Miami Marlins, so there will be some added motivation for him.
Lopez gets another favorable matchup as the Marlins have the highest K% (31.7%) in the MLB and rank in the bottom third in wOBA, WRC+, and team batting average.
On the flip side, Jesus Luzardo is also making his second start of the season. Luzardo picked up the first win of Miami’s season as he pitched five shutout innings while striking out four in his matchup with the New York Mets.
Last season Luzardo posted a very low HR/9 (0.90) rate and a BABIP of .253, which ranked among the best in baseball last season.
Bet: 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-150)
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Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, 2:05 PM ET
Grayson Rodriguez vs. Jacob deGrom
We are taking a shot in the dark with this game, as we don’t know what we will get from Grayson Rodriguez. The 23-year-old is making his MLB debut and is the No. 12 prospect in baseball per ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.
Rodriguez competed for a job this spring but was sent down after a rough five starts. He allowed 11 earned runs in his final 10.1 innings of spring while posting an ERA of 7.04 in 15.1 innings. Despite his spring struggles, there is a lot of hype surrounding Grayson Rodriguez and big expectations from the Orioles Organization.
As for Jacob deGrom, we should all know what to expect from him this season. He was able to complete the NRFI in his first start against the Phillies but was roughed up after that. I will contribute the poor outing to new team/league jitters.
Tread lightly with this play.
Bet: 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-145)