For what it’s worth, yesterday was a tough day for me thanks to the Yankees and the Dodgers. I finished the day -10.21 units, leaving me -18.69 units for the season. That’s not good, but it is a lot better than it was just a few days ago.
I did realize that the Dodgers were in a tough spot coming off a big Sunday night extra-inning game in ATL, but the spot wasn’t great for the Rockies, being the first home game after a tough road trip. I just did not expect the Dodgers to lose to the likes of Chad Kuhl. Kuhl sucks and having him toss a complete game shutout against them has to be extremely embarrassing.
I got to watch the Yankees again last night. They looked like they were sleepwalking through the first five innings as the A’s put up 5 in the 3rd and led 5-2 after 5. I kept waiting for the Yanks to explode and they finally did in the 7th rolling to a 9-5. win. Fortunately, the rest of my bets cashed. On my parlay card, the Blue Jays crushed the Red Sox cashing my 1st 5 and the Ynks came back to at least cash the full game portion. As for my side bets, I lost with the Marlins 1st 5 ML as Pablo Lopez got shelled, but cashed both of my 1st 5 RL bets on the Rangers 1st and the Angels. I’m kicking myself for nor putting the Rangers 1st 5 and full game on my parlay card.
We have a full card with all but one game being at night, so let’s get right to it. Here’s the card so far.
ML Parlays |
Team 1 |
Tean 2 |
Odds |
Units |
|
NYY full Game |
TOR 1st 5 |
|
2 |
|
NYY full Game |
TEX 1st 5 |
155 |
2 |
|
NYY full Game |
TEX ML |
176 |
2 |
|
NYY full Game |
LAD 1st 5 |
131 |
2 |
|
NYY full Game |
LAD ML |
132 |
2 |
|
NYY full Game |
SF 1st 5 |
131 |
2 |
|
TOR 1st 5 |
TEX 1st 5 |
182 |
2 |
|
TOR 1st 5 |
TEX ML |
193 |
2 |
|
TOR 1st 5 |
LAD 1st 5 |
155 |
2 |
|
TOR 1st 5 |
LAD ML |
157 |
2 |
|
TOR 1st 5 |
SF 1st 5 |
132 |
2 |
|
TEX 1st 5 |
LAD 1st 5 |
145 |
2 |
|
TEX 1st 5 |
LAD ML |
146 |
2 |
|
TEX 1st 5 |
SF ML |
146 |
2 |
|
TEX ML |
LAD 1st 5 |
149 |
2 |
|
TEX ML |
LAD ML |
151 |
2 |
|
TEX ML |
SF 1st 5 |
149 |
2 |
|
LAD 1st 5 |
SF 1st 5 |
121 |
2 |
|
LAD ML |
SF 1st 5 |
123 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Sides |
HTN 1st 5 |
|
-120 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Totals |
PHIL 1st 5 Under |
|
-115 |
2 |
Here are the early game breakdowns// Late Games later
ATL @ PHIL
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
ATL
|
Morton - R
|
(6/14)
|
(8/14)
|
1.28
|
4.84
|
4.17
|
4.19
|
3.71
|
3.55
|
0.327
|
0.335
|
26.7%
|
8.1%
|
41.0%
|
38.7%
|
PHIL
|
Wheeler - R
|
(9/13)
|
(4/13)
|
1.11
|
2.77
|
2.85
|
2.27
|
2.93
|
3.03
|
0.282
|
0.281
|
28.3%
|
5.9%
|
34.9%
|
47.4%
|
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
ATL
|
4.72
|
9
|
0.327
|
4
|
107
|
8
|
24.8
|
10
|
0.192
|
2
|
7.9%
|
19
|
43.4%
|
2
|
11.6%
|
1
|
25.1%
|
28
|
PHI
|
4.76
|
7
|
0.319
|
10
|
103
|
12
|
13.0
|
12
|
0.167
|
7
|
8.5%
|
11
|
40.6%
|
7
|
8.5%
|
9
|
22.3%
|
15
|
Edge – ATL
Conclusion. Both of these teams can flat-out hit , but of the two, with the exception of a higher walk rate and lower K rate, the Braves get most of the other edges, but by fairly small margins. However one thing that the numbers do not replect is that the Phils best hitter, Bryce Harper won’t ben in the lineup and that is a huge loss.
As for the two starting pitchers, I give that ewdge to the Phisls with Zack Wheeler.
Right from the outset, Zack Wheeler was behind the rest of the Phils' starters. Because of offseason shoulder soreness, he essentially didn’t have a spring training and it showed in his first three starts in which Wheeler gave up 12 runs on 17 hits and 4 walks over 12.2 innings with 11 Ks. However, in his last 10 starts, Wheeler has given up a total of just 15 runs (11 earned) on 47 hits and 13 walks over 64 innings with 75 Ks. That comes out to a 0.94 WHIP and a 1.55 ERA. Now that’s the Wheeler that I remember from last season, when he posted a great 1.01 WHIP and 2.78 ERA with ERA metrics that were totally consistent with his fine ERA. This season, his overall WHIP and ERA are both very good and his ERA metrics are totally consistent with his ERA. Wheeler’s wOBA and xwOBA are almost identical and both well below league average with an elite K rate and low walk and hard contact rates, as well as solid GB rate.
Charlie Morton has really struggled this season with just 6 of his 14 starts grading as above average, and the other 8 grading as below. However, his last 3 starts all graded as above average. Over those three starts, Morton has given up 6 runs on 11 hits and 1 walk over 20 innings, with 32 Ks. His WHIP and ERA are both still on the high side, but his ERA metrics are all a half to a full run lower than his ERA and while both his wOBA and xwOBA are still a little higher than league average, then have come down and are trending in the right direction. Morton’s K rate is elite, but with a walk rate that’s on the high side. At 38, the end could be approaching for Morton, but appafrently he’s not quite done yet.
My original intention was to bet the Phils 1st 5 with Wheeler coming off a rare poor start, but the current form of both of these guys makes me loot to the 1st 5 Under despite the low total of 3,5.
Pick – 1st 5 Under 3.5
OAK @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
OAK
|
Monts - R
|
(8/15)
|
(6/15)
|
1.19
|
3.21
|
3.22
|
3.15
|
3.09
|
3.32
|
0.272
|
0.299
|
25.2%
|
6.1%
|
36.6%
|
48.1%
|
NYY
|
Sears - L
|
(1/1)
|
(0/1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – OAK
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
OAK
|
(10-14)
|
16/29
|
0.56
|
26
|
1.38
|
26
|
4.57
|
26
|
69.5%
|
23
|
19.8%
|
24
|
8.9%
|
24
|
NYY
|
26-11
|
25/35
|
0.34
|
1
|
1.09
|
1
|
2.81
|
2
|
77.0%
|
2
|
25.1%
|
2
|
7.0%
|
2
|
Edge – NYY big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
OAK
|
3.20
|
29
|
0.267
|
30
|
76
|
29
|
-73.8
|
29
|
0.118
|
29
|
7.0%
|
28
|
34.7%
|
29
|
6.0%
|
27
|
23.5%
|
22
|
NYY
|
5.08
|
1
|
0.330
|
1
|
117
|
1
|
53.6
|
1
|
0.195
|
1
|
10.2%
|
1
|
43.4%
|
2
|
11.2%
|
2
|
21.9%
|
12
|
Edge – NYY – big
Conclusion: This is obviously a huge mismatch as we have the team with the worst record in the league, the A’s (25-50) travelling to face the team with the best record in the league, the Yankees (54-20).
His wOBA and xWOBA are both slightly lower than league average. Blackburn
Offensively, the Yanks ranks 1st in RPG, wOBA, wRC+, ORAA and ISO and walk rate , as well as 2nd in hard hit and barrel rates. By contrast, the A’s rank among the bottom three teams in the league in almost every one of those categories. This isn’t close.
As for the two bullpens, that is almost as big a mismatch The Yanks rank among the top two in R/IP, WHIP, ERA and strand rate, while the A’s rank in the bottom third of the league in all of those categories. That brings us to the two starting pitchers, which is a closer matchup and may actually favor the A’s.
Frankie Montas has started 15 games for the A’s with 8 grading as above average, 1 grading as average and 6 grading as below. His WHIP and ERA are both good and his ERA metrics are totally consistent with his ERA. Montas’ wOBA and xwOBA are both lower than league average with a god K and walk rate as well as a fairly low hard contact rate and a solid near 50% GB rate. Montas is pitching well for a really bad a’s team.
The Yankees caled up JP Sears from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to start tonight’s game against the A’s. Although the Yankees' starting pitchers are fully healthy, Sears will make a spot start to give the team's other starters an additional day of rest. Over his first three MLB appearances (one start) of the season, Sears has delivered 7 scoreless innings, giving up 5 hits and 3 walks while striking out 7.
Almost everything points to the Yanks here and most of it isn’t close.
Pick – NYY full game ML in a series of parlays.
BOS @ TOR
Starting Pitchers
7:07
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
BOS
|
Wacha - R
|
(8/12)
|
(4/12)
|
1.04
|
2.34
|
4.42
|
3.97
|
4.11
|
4.38
|
0.265
|
0.344
|
18.5%
|
7.2%
|
33.3%
|
40.6%
|
TOR
|
Stripling
|
(5/9)
|
(4/9)
|
0.96
|
2.81
|
3.49
|
2.58
|
3.22
|
3.44
|
0.258
|
0.309
|
19.8%
|
3.1%
|
27.2%
|
52.8%
|
Edge – TOR
Bullpens
Bullpens
N.A – This is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BOS
|
4.77
|
6
|
0.323
|
6
|
107
|
8
|
24.9
|
9
|
0.156
|
12
|
7.8%
|
21
|
41.3%
|
6
|
8.6%
|
8
|
20.5%
|
7
|
TOR
|
4.74
|
8
|
0.330
|
1
|
113
|
2
|
40.7
|
3
|
0.178
|
4
|
8.1%
|
15
|
43.8%
|
1
|
9.0%
|
6
|
21.3%
|
10
|
Edge – TOR
Conclusion: Offensively, both of these teams can hit really well. However, with the exception of scoring 0.10 fewer runs per game and a 0.2% higher K rate, the Jays hold all the edges, but those edges are small. As for the two starting pitchers, I think the Jays should have the edge there as well with Ross Stripling.
Michael Wacha has pitched surprisingly well for the Red Sox this season with 8 of his 12 starts grading as above average and 4 grading as below. His WHIP and ERA are both very good, but his ERA metrics are mostly about 2 runs higher than his ERA. WE see the same pattern emerging with Wacha’s xwOBA, which is almost 80 points his than his actual wONA. We can attribute than to Wacha’s extremely low .227 BABIP which is more than 70 lower than his career average, and Wacha’s very high 84.5% strand rate which is 11.1% higher than his career rate. Both of those number will almost certainly regress. A mediocre K rate and a fairly high walk rate for a guy who doesn’t miss that many bats doesn’t help either. I would expect to see Wacha’s ERA rise going forward.
Ross Stripling has started 9 games for the Jays this season with 5 grading as above average and 4 grading as below. In those 8 starts, Stripling has give up a total of 13 runs on 35 hits and 5 walks over 41.2 innings. That comes out to an excellent 0.96 WHIP and and 2.81 ERA with a .244 wOBA. His overall WHIP and ERA are both very good and his ERA metrics, while all a little higher are still good as well. The truth is that right his statistical profile looks very good, but it is a smaller sample size, so I guess it’s a little more suspect
I’ll take the risk and ride Stripling for 5 innings, even against a good Red Sox offense and I will expect the Jays to get some ruins off Wacha, from whom I’m looking for regression.tee of on young Seabold.
Pick – TOR 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
HTN @ NYM
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
HTN
|
Valdez - L
|
(12/14)
|
(2/14)
|
1.13
|
2.90
|
3.11
|
3.39
|
3.20
|
3.32
|
0.267
|
0.293
|
21.1%
|
8.7%
|
34.0%
|
67.6%
|
NYM
|
Carrasco - R
|
(9/14)
|
(5/14)
|
1.29
|
4.42
|
3.89
|
3.58
|
3.53
|
3.55
|
0.327
|
0.325
|
23.3%
|
5.5%
|
38.4%
|
44.9%
|
Edge - HTN
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HOU
|
4.29
|
18
|
0.322
|
7
|
113
|
2
|
35.2
|
6
|
0.180
|
3
|
9.5%
|
5
|
40.1%
|
8
|
8.4%
|
11
|
20.0%
|
3
|
NYM
|
4.93
|
3
|
0.321
|
8
|
112
|
5
|
38.7
|
4
|
0.144
|
19
|
8.0%
|
18
|
37.0%
|
20
|
6.4%
|
23
|
20.0%
|
3
|
Edge – NYM slight
Conclusion: Offensively, these two teams are pretty evenly matched. The Mets average a little more than a half a run per game more, but it’s all so damned close that any edge is very marginal.
This bet is all about the two starting pitchers and there I give the Astros a huge edge with Framber Valdez.
Valdez has now started 14 games with 12 of them grading as above average and just 2 grading as below. Valdez has given up more than 3 runs just twice and in 8 on his 14 starts it was 2 or less. Valdez’s big issue is his control. It can be iffy. His WHIP is still good despite the walks and his ERA is also very good. His ERA metrics are all slightly higher than his ERA, probably because of the walks, but still quite good. In his two below average starts, Valdez walked 9 batters, but both were back in April. However, Valdez had walked 3 in four of his last 5 starts. His wOBA and xwOBA are both lower than league average and he’s still generating an incredible GB rate. It’s just the damned walks and if Valdez can keep those down, he can be really special. He’s actually still pretty damned good right now.
Until recently, Carlos Carrasco had pitched remarkably well for the Mets this season. He has deliveried 9 above average starts outings in his 14 outings to just 5 below average ones. However, three of the 5 below average ones were his last 3. In those 3 games, Carrasco has given up 13 runs on 21 hits and 5 walks over 13.1 innings! His WHIP is still OK, but his ERA is now mediocre. However, his ERA metrics are all at least a half a run lower than his ERA, telling ,me that he has probably pitched a little better than his ERA would suffest. Carrasco’s xwOBA is almost identical to his wOBA, but still around league average. Carrasco’s K rate is OK and he also has a low walk rate and a decent GB rate.
Valdez has simply been better so I went ahead and bet on Valdez for five innings.
Picks – HTN 1st 5 ML
TEX @ KC
Starting Pitchers
8:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
TX
|
Gray - R
|
(7/12)
|
(5/12)
|
1.18
|
4.18
|
3.84
|
3.44
|
3.62
|
3.72
|
0.265
|
0.323
|
25.5%
|
8.6%
|
38.7%
|
41.3%
|
KC
|
Heasley - R
|
(1/8)
|
(7/8)
|
1.38
|
4.14
|
5.52
|
5.52
|
5.24
|
5.21
|
0.329
|
0.378
|
17.8%
|
12.2%
|
44.4%
|
35.8%
|
Edge – TEX
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
TEX
|
17-17
|
17/128
|
0.44
|
10
|
1.18
|
8
|
3.39
|
9
|
72.7%
|
13
|
21.8%
|
20
|
9.2%
|
25
|
KCR
|
15-12
|
14/23
|
0.58
|
28
|
1.45
|
28
|
4.74
|
29
|
68.6%
|
26
|
18.5%
|
29
|
10.2%
|
30
|
Edge - TEX
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TEX
|
4.39
|
15
|
0.302
|
22
|
98
|
19
|
7.0
|
14
|
0.154
|
13
|
7.5%
|
26
|
39.6%
|
11
|
7.7%
|
14
|
22.9%
|
19
|
KCR
|
3.86
|
27
|
0.297
|
25
|
91
|
24
|
-23.8
|
23
|
0.133
|
26
|
8.1%
|
16
|
38.2%
|
15
|
6.9%
|
19
|
20.5%
|
7
|
Edge – TEX
Conclusion: The Rangers have the clearly better offense, but w wide margin and the better bullpen. They also have the better starting pitcher with Jon Gray.
I’lll back the better starting pitcher and the better hitting tam – TEX
Pick – TEX 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays