DET @ ARIZ
Starting Pitchers
9:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
DET
|
Garcia - R
|
(1/5)
|
(4/5)
|
1.05
|
4.97
|
7.67
|
4.42
|
3.47
|
3.26
|
0.310
|
0.430
|
27.3%
|
6.0%
|
58.0%
|
29.0%
|
ARIZ
|
Kelly - R
|
(8/14)
|
(6/14)
|
1.29
|
3.46
|
3.60
|
3.26
|
4.09
|
4.34
|
0.299
|
0.313
|
20.3%
|
8.9%
|
35.4%
|
43.0%
|
Edge - ARIZ
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
DET
|
2.87
|
30
|
0.271
|
29
|
75
|
30
|
-81.9
|
30
|
0.102
|
30
|
6.5%
|
29
|
34.8%
|
29
|
6.1%
|
27
|
23.7%
|
23
|
ARI
|
4.03
|
24
|
0.296
|
25
|
87
|
27
|
-31.0
|
25
|
0.161
|
11
|
9.3%
|
6
|
36.4%
|
22
|
7.6%
|
17
|
24.3%
|
27
|
Edge – ARIZ mostly by default
Conclusion: As hard as it may be to believe, there are a few offenses that are worse than the Dbacks. The Tigers have the worst offense in the league. As for the two pitchers, Garcia has a surprisingly good WHIP, but an ERA of almost 5.00, an xERA of over 7.00, an xWOBA of over .400 qnd q hard contact rate of almost 60%. Thanks but no thanks. Kelly’numbers are actually pretty solid.
Pick – ARIZ 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
PHIL @ SD
Starting Pitchers
9:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
PHIL
|
Nola - R
|
(9/14)
|
(3/14)
|
0.87
|
3.11
|
2.73
|
2.94
|
2.89
|
2.79
|
0.261
|
0.275
|
28.7%
|
3.2%
|
34.1%
|
45.6%
|
SD
|
Gore -
|
(8/10)
|
(2/10)
|
1.33
|
3.64
|
4.07
|
3.28
|
3.73
|
3.83
|
0.297
|
0.331
|
26.5%
|
10.4%
|
43.4%
|
41.8%
|
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
PHI
|
4.79
|
6
|
0.320
|
8
|
103
|
13
|
14.1
|
12
|
0.168
|
6
|
8.6%
|
11
|
40.4%
|
7
|
8.6%
|
8
|
22.5%
|
16
|
SDP
|
4.71
|
9
|
0.311
|
15
|
102
|
14
|
9.8
|
14
|
0.140
|
23
|
9.3%
|
6
|
36.0%
|
23
|
5.9%
|
29
|
21.5%
|
11
|
Edge – PHIL
Conclusion: Both team have well above average offenses, but other than a lower walk rate and a higher K rate, the Phils have all the other statistical edges. As for the two starting pitchers, Aaron Nola hold almost all the edges thre. Mackenzie Gore has pitched well, but I think that he might have hit the proverbial “rookie wall”, giving up 14 runs on 14 hits and 7 walks in just 6.1 innings combined in his last two starts!
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
CIN @ SF
Starting Pitchers
10:15
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
CIN
|
Ashcraft
|
(4/6)
|
(2/6)
|
1.17
|
3.51
|
3.45
|
3.88
|
3.91
|
4.14
|
0.282
|
0.307
|
13.5%
|
5.0%
|
35.1%
|
55.8%
|
SF
|
Cobb - R
|
(4/9)
|
(5/9)
|
1.46
|
5.62
|
2.25
|
3.28
|
2.64
|
2.92
|
0.340
|
0.250
|
27.2%
|
7.2%
|
29.7%
|
62.4%
|
Edge – SF
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
CIN
|
4.32
|
18
|
0.303
|
22
|
88
|
26
|
-42.0
|
27
|
0.141
|
21
|
7.9%
|
19
|
37.0%
|
20
|
6.6%
|
21
|
22.8%
|
17
|
SFG
|
4.90
|
4
|
0.318
|
12
|
107
|
10
|
23.4
|
9
|
0.162
|
9
|
9.8%
|
3
|
38.6%
|
13
|
7.8%
|
13
|
22.9%
|
19
|
Edge SG big
Conclusion: Offensively, this matchup doesn’t look remotely close. The Reds offense is offensive, while the Gianyt offense is very good. As for the two starting pitchers, at first glance I thought I might have made a mistake. Ashcraft’s numbers actually look pretty good and superficially better than Cobb’s, but look closer. Cobb’s ERA metrics are all 2 to 3 runs lower than his awful ERA. That’s huge. The metrics say that Cobb’s ERA should be around 3.00, not in th mid 5.00s. the xwOBA tells the same story. It’s almost 50 points lower than his actual wOBA. Finally, Cobb’s .381 BABIP is almost 80 point higher than his career average. Cobb’s ben the victim of some real shitty luck. He’s pitched much better. I believe the metric.
Pick – SF 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays