For what It’s worth, yesterday was a much better day for me. I ended up picking up 8.46 units, leaving me -24.91 units for the season.
The culprits that cost me an even bigger day were the Phils 1st 5 and the Yankees 1st 5. In the Phils game, the Rangers used a walk and an error, followed by a two-run single to take a 2-0 send inning lead on Zack Wheeler. A two-run -HR by Kyle Schwarber tied it 2-2 in the 3rd, but that tie was short lived as the Rangers used a double and single to take a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the 3rd. The Phils got nothing off Jon Gray in the 4th or 5th and my PHIL 1st 5 was a loser.
I got to watch most of the Yankee game. A spio HR by 2B Isaac Paredes and a two-run shot by RF Vidal Bruhan put Jordan Montgomery and the Yanks in an early 3-0 hole. The Yanks got one back on a solo shot by Aaron Judge in the top of the 4th, but the Rays got the run right back on a sacrifice by Brujan making it 4-1 and that’s how it stayed until the top of the 6th costing me my 1st 5 on the Yanks. In the top of the 6th, the Yanks got their 2nd run courtesy of a throwing error by SS Teylor Walls making it 4-2. In the 7th, Another solo shot by Judge made it 4-3 and a two-run shot by C Jose Trevino fibnally gave the Yanks a 5-4 lead. Relievers Michael King and Clay Holmes tossed two scoreless innoings in the 8th and 9th to close out the win. The game really should not have been this close. The Yanks were 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position and left the bses loaded in both the 5th and 6th, but they got the W and I needed it.
In other action, I had the Blue Jays full game ML and the over 9 in their game against the White Sox for two easy winners. The Jays erupted for 5 runs off Lucas Giolito in the 4th and jumped to a 7-0 lead. I had the Padres full game ML and that was another easy winner as the Padres rolled to a 10-3 win over the Dbacks in ARIZ. I also had the Marlins 1st 5 and the Dodgers full game, two more easy winners. In late action, I had the Giants 1st 5 ML and the Angels 11s 5 ML. Both Carlos Rodon and Shohei Ohtani were stellar for my final two winners.
It was a good day and hopefully, I can keep it going and get on a streak here.
We have a small slate of games today with several day games, but there’s not much that I like so my card will be short. Here’s what I like so far.
ML Parlays
|
Team 1
|
Tean 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
LAD full game
|
SD full game
|
147
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
LAD RL
|
|
-142
|
1
|
Added TOTAL- LAD @ CIN 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-105)
Here is the early game breakdown
LAD @ CIN
Starting Pitchers
12:35
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
LAD
|
Kershaw - L
|
(5/7)
|
(2/7)
|
0.85
|
2.08
|
2.64
|
2.62
|
2.90
|
2.96
|
0.230
|
0.271
|
27.2%
|
4.1%
|
31.0%
|
49.0%
|
CIN
|
Greene - R
|
(5/13)
|
(8/13)
|
1,29
|
5.26
|
3.68
|
5.30
|
4.01
|
2.62
|
0.336
|
0.317
|
30.1%
|
9.9%
|
34.7%
|
25.9%
|
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
(11-14)
|
17/24
|
0.42
|
6
|
1.15
|
7
|
3.41
|
8
|
73.1%
|
10
|
26.3%
|
4
|
7.7%
|
5
|
CIN
|
(9-11)
|
13/22
|
0.61
|
29
|
1.45
|
29
|
5.06
|
30
|
69.5%
|
24
|
23.8%
|
16
|
11.6%
|
28
|
Edge – LAD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.10
|
2
|
0.327
|
4
|
112
|
4
|
44.0
|
2
|
10.4%
|
1
|
41.3%
|
5
|
9.4%
|
4
|
21.5%
|
12
|
CIN
|
4.31
|
18
|
0.304
|
21
|
89
|
26
|
-38.9
|
27
|
8.0%
|
18
|
37.0%
|
20
|
6.5%
|
21
|
22.8%
|
18
|
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: The Dodgers picked up a second easy win 8-4 yesterday. They have outscored the Reds 16-6 in the first two games.
The Dodgers hold all the edges in this one as well. Offensively, the Dodgers are a top-five offense in every category except for K rate. By contrast, the Reds offense ranks well below average pretty much across the board. The same analysis applies to these two bullpens. The Dodgers possess a top-ten pen, while the Reds pen is among the worst in baseball. That leaves the two starting pitchers and the Dodgers have almost all the edges with Clayton Kershaw.
Kershaw has started 7 games for the Dodgers with 5 grading as above average and 2 grading as below. He has given up just 9 total runs on 27 hits and 6 walks over 39 innings with 40 Ks. He has a sub 1.00 WHIP and an ERA that’s barely over 2.00, with ERA metrics that are all under 3.00. Kershaw’s xwOBA is about 40 point higher than his actual wOBA, but still almost 60 points lower than league average. He is still striking out over a batter per inning with a very low walk and hard contact rate, and he’s generation a near 50% GB rate with only 3 HRs allowed. Those are some damned fine numbers for a 34 year-old workhorse with almost 2500 innings on that left arm. Before his last start (his first since hitting the IL) I was concerned about his health, but he held the Guardians to 1 run on 5 hits and a walk over 5 innings while striking out 4.
Hunter Greene has started 13 games with 5 grading as above average, but 8 grading as below averge. Greene is probably better than his high WHIP and ERA would suggest, but he’s suffered some growing pains and he’s doing it on one of the worst team in baseball and that’s got to be frustrating. His ERA metrics are mostly about a run lower than his ERA so that’s a positive, but they aren’t great either. His xwOBA is about 20 points lower than his wOBA, but it is still higher than league average. Greene has an elite K rate, but a high walk rate. He’s also very HR prone, having given up 13 already this season. Greene faced the Dodgers back in April, giving up 3 runs on 5 hits (1 HR)over 5.1 innings with 6 Ks.
Kershaw’s numbers are almost all better than Greene’s with the exception of Greene’s better K rate. However, it’s also true that Kershaw accumulated most of those numbers before he hit the IL. The Dodgers now have a 22-13 road record in which their last ten wins were all by more than 1 run and 21 of those 22 road wins were by more than 1 run. The Reds have the 2nd worst record in the league at 23-45, they aren't any better at home at 12-22. I’m again fading the Reds against a Dodgers team that is far superior to them at every level.
Pick#1 – LAD full game ML in a parlay
Pick #2 - LAD RL
Pick #3 - 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-105 for 1 unit)