For what It’s worth, yesterday was yet another less than stellar day for me. It wasn’t even close to a disaster, but I did end up losing another 0.10 units, leaving me -33.37 units for the season.
The culprit yesterday was the Yankees. Nestor Cortes struggled a a lot more than I expected giving up 4 runs and 6 hits (3 HRs)in just 4.1 innings. Right to the bitter end, I expect the Yanks to come back, but in the end they came up short. I watch a lot of Yankee and Met games and my concern with the Yanks is the bullpen. They have performed remarkably well so far this season, but I’m just not sure they are really that good. I love Michael King and believe that he should be closing, but I’m just not that impressed with the rest of the pen.
The other two teams on my parlay card, the Dodgers 1st 5 and full game, and the Red Sox 1st 5 and full game all cashed. I also cashed my one sige, the Cards 1st 5 RL.
I also added two last minute late bets that I didn’t have time to post on the Padres/Dbacks game. I bet the Dbacks 1st 5 ML, backing Zac Gallen and the 1st 5 under 3.5, with two quality starting pitchers in Gallren and Sean Manaea and fortunately both cashed. It wasn’t enough to put me in the plus column, but it did help offset the damage that the Yanks did.
We have a full slate of games with several day games as I once again try to get untracked and dig out of another damned hole.
Here is the first game.
TOR @ CHI WS
Starting Pitchers
2:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
TOR
|
Stripling - R
|
(4/8)
|
(4/8)
|
1.07
|
3.28
|
3.62
|
2.98
|
3.58
|
3.64
|
0.262
|
0.315
|
20.0%
|
5.3%
|
34.5%
|
52.8%
|
CHI WS
|
Giolito
|
(5/11)
|
6/11)
|
1.49
|
4.78
|
4.83
|
4.86
|
3.57
|
3.56
|
0.369
|
0.358
|
28.9%
|
9.9%
|
44.8%
|
32.2%
|
Edge – TOR
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
TOR
|
14-14
|
22/36
|
0.51
|
18
|
1.24
|
14
|
4.35
|
23
|
71.3%
|
15
|
22.3%
|
19
|
8.1%
|
7
|
CHW
|
16-9
|
21/33
|
0.55
|
24
|
1.36
|
21
|
4.25
|
21
|
68.5%
|
29
|
24.1%
|
13
|
10.0%
|
25
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TOR
|
4.62
|
11
|
0.329
|
2
|
112
|
4
|
36.5
|
4
|
8.3%
|
14
|
44.0%
|
1
|
9.0%
|
6
|
21.0%
|
10
|
CHW
|
4.27
|
19
|
0.304
|
21
|
100
|
16
|
3.3
|
16
|
6.4%
|
30
|
40.2%
|
8
|
7.7%
|
14
|
20.3%
|
7
|
Edge – TOR
Conclusion: The reeling Blue Jays lost again 7-6 last night in 10 innings, blowing a 4-2 lead in the 8th and then losing in the 10th. That followed a 10-9 loss on Tuesday. The rays have now lost four of their last five. Thw White Sox have won six of their last eight, including the first two against these Jays.
Offensively, both teams are hitting really well right now having combined for 28 runs in the first two games of this series. The White Sox have scored more than five runs in ten of their last 12. Teh Jays have score five or more runs in 12 of their last 17. The numbers say that the Jays score about a third of a run more per game with the better wOBA, wRC+, ORAA, as well as walk, hard hit and barrel rates..
As for the two bullpens they both stink. The Jays pen has lost 14 games and blown 14 saves, including #14 last night. The White Sox ave;t been much better losing 9 games and blowing 12 saves. Both pens have below average R/IPs and ERAs.
That leaves the two starting pitchers.
Ross Stripling has started 8 games for the Jays this season with 4 grading as above average and 4 grading as below. In those 8 starts, Stripling has give up a total of 12 runs on 30 hits and 4 walks over 35.2 innings. That comes out to an excellent 0.95 WHIP and and 3.03 ERA with a .246 wOBA. His overall WHIP and ERA are both very good and his ERA metrics, while all a little higher are still good as well. The truth his that right his statistical profile looks good, but it is a smaler sample size, so I guess it’s a little more suspect
Lucas Giolito has started 11 games with 5 grading as above average and 6 grading as below average, including his last 3. His WHIP is high and his ERA is mediocre. Hie ERA metrics are mostly consistent with his mediocre ERA. His wOBA and xwOBA are both higher than league average, but his K rate is still elite. However, his walk rate is high. Giolito has struggled giving up 23 runs on 29 hits and 10 walks in is last 4 starts (20.2 innings).
I faded Giolito today and with two teams hitting well and two lousy bullpens..
Pick – TOR ML (-108 for 1 unit) and full game Over 9 (-115 for 1 unit)
More later