STL @ NYM
Starting Pitchers
1:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
STL
|
Hudson - R
|
(3/7)
|
(4/7)
|
1.33
|
3.06
|
5.39
|
5.04
|
4.82
|
5.02
|
0.314
|
0.381
|
13.6%
|
11.5%
|
0.248
|
82.9%
|
56.9%
|
NYM
|
Bassitt - R
|
(6/7)
|
(1/7)
|
1.02
|
2.34
|
3.02
|
3.35
|
3.52
|
3.22
|
0.270
|
0.295
|
26.9%
|
7.0%
|
0.260
|
87.3%
|
45.8%
|
Edge – NYM big
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
STL
|
(6-2)
|
(7/8)
|
0.39
|
5
|
1.22
|
15
|
3.38
|
8
|
77.7%
|
4
|
20.6%
|
27
|
8.6%
|
8
|
NYM
|
(6-6)
|
(11/16)
|
0.41
|
8
|
1.16
|
9
|
3.59
|
14
|
75.4%
|
9
|
29.8%
|
1
|
9.5%
|
18
|
Edge – STL small
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
STL
|
4.50
|
11
|
0.318
|
11
|
109
|
10
|
18.9
|
6
|
8.6%
|
15
|
33.9%
|
30
|
6.2%
|
29
|
19.2%
|
1
|
NYM
|
4.37
|
12
|
0.319
|
7
|
111
|
8
|
16.0
|
10
|
8.9%
|
11
|
35.8%
|
26
|
6.4%
|
25
|
20.1%
|
6
|
Edge – NYM small
Conclusion: The Mets won the third game of this series, busting open a close game in the bottom of the 5th.
Offensively and in the bullpen this is a close matchup between two good teams. However, when we get to the two starting pitchers, that’s more of a mismatch.
Dakota Hudson has started 7 games for the Cards with 3 grading as above average and 2 grading as below. Hudson has given up a total of 13 runs on 30 hits and 17 walks over 35.1 innings with 20 Ks. Hudson has a high WHIP, but a good ERA? However, his ERA metrics are all about 2 runs higher than his ERA. That’s a lot and tells me that Hudson has not pitched anywhere near as well as his surface numbers would suggest. We see the same pattern with his xwOBA, which is almost 70 points higher than his actual wOBA. Hudson misses very few bats and also has a really high walk rate . His 20/17 K/BB ratio iis far from impressive. The only part of Hudson’s statistical profire than is impressive is a superb GB rate. While Hudson doesn’t miss many bats, he is an extreme GB pitcher who generates a lot of GBs and that works particularly well with the Cards' strong infield defense, so Hudson can often successfully pitch even when he puts a lot of runners on base, but if he keeps putting that many mn on, sooner or later it will catch up with him.
Chris Bassitt has also started 7 games for the Mets with 6 grading as above average and just 1 grading as below Bassitt has given up a total of 11 runs on 31 hits and 12 walks over 42.1 innings with 46 Ks. His WHIP and ERA are both stellar, and while Bassitt’s ERA metrics are all about a run or more higher than his superb ERA, they are still all very good. Bassitt’s 4 wOBA and xwOBA are both lower than league average. His K rate is also very good, and his walk rate isn’t high either, giving him an excellent 46/12 K/BB ratio with a low 32.4% hard contact rate. Bassitt is having a hell of a fine season. I.m not sure that he really as good as he’s shown, but he was last season with the A’s and he has been so far with the Mets.
I’ll ride Bassittt because I think he’s better than Hudson, and the Mets because I think that they’re better than the Cards.
Pick – NYM 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays.