Now, It’s crunch time so the write up will have to be very brief.
NYY @ BALT
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
NYY
|
Cole - R
|
(4/7)
|
(3/7)
|
1.12
|
2.95
|
3.18
|
3.41
|
2.80
|
2.93
|
0.286
|
0.303
|
30.3%
|
7/0%
|
0.273
|
85.7%
|
44.1%
|
BALT
|
Lyles - R
|
(4/7)
|
(3/7)
|
1.51
|
4.38
|
4.87
|
4.42
|
4.16
|
4.25
|
0.362
|
0.366
|
18.5%
|
8.1%
|
0.336
|
74.5%
|
42.6%
|
Edge – NYY big
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
(15-6)
|
(12/17)
|
0.30
|
1
|
1.15
|
6
|
2.50
|
1
|
79.1%
|
2
|
25.2%
|
9
|
9.8%
|
21
|
BAL
|
(8-11)
|
(7/8)
|
0.43
|
10
|
1.20
|
13
|
3.40
|
9
|
72.1%
|
13
|
22.3%
|
23
|
9.4%
|
17
|
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
4.91
|
4
|
0.329
|
2
|
122
|
1
|
29.6
|
1
|
10.0%
|
5
|
47.2%
|
1
|
12.1%
|
1
|
22.4%
|
14
|
BAL
|
3.26
|
29
|
0.292
|
22
|
93
|
20
|
-8.0
|
20
|
8.0%
|
19
|
40.0%
|
11
|
7.1%
|
18
|
24.5%
|
24
|
Edge – NYY big
Conclusion: The Yanks have all the edges in this one. First of all, they have the vastly superior offense. The Yanks rank in the top 5 in almost every single offensive category that I look at, the one exception being a 14th ranked K rate. By contrast, the O’s mostly rank in the bottom third.
As for these two bullpens, the Yanks pen is elite, with 15 wins and 12 saves in 17 opportunities. They rank in the top 5 in R/IP, WHIP, ERA and strand rate. The O’s pen is much improved this season and currently ranks as an above average unit, but they’re not in the Yanks class.
As for the two starting pitchers, that looks to me like another mismatch.
I can’t say for sure what was wrong with Gerrit Cole, but I am pretty sure that he’s figured it out. Over his last 4 starts, that all graded as above average, Cole has given up a total of 4 runs on 20 hits and 5 walks over 25.1 innings with 34 Ks. That come out to a 0.99 WHIP and a 1.42 ERA. Cole is back.
Jordan Lyles has an ugly WHIP and mediocre ERA with mediocre ERA metrics. He also has a high wOBA and xwOBA, a pedestrian K rate and a high walk rate.
The Yanks have all the edges here and most by a wide margin.
Pick – NYY 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
SEA @ TOR
Starting Pitchers
7:07
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
SEA
|
Gonzales - L
|
(2/7)
|
(5/7)
|
1.53
|
3.38
|
5.40
|
6.27
|
4.83
|
4.86
|
0.384
|
0.382
|
15.0%
|
8.8%
|
0.272
|
74.7%
|
40.9%
|
TOR
|
Gausman - R
|
(6/7)
|
(1/7)
|
0.98
|
2.40
|
2.50
|
0.82
|
2.10
|
2.20
|
0.242
|
0.270
|
30.9%
|
1.1%
|
0.353
|
68.2%
|
44.9%
|
Edge – TOR big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
SEA
|
3.81
|
21
|
0.311
|
13
|
113
|
5
|
16.1
|
9
|
9.7%
|
7
|
35.5%
|
27
|
7.2%
|
15
|
22.0%
|
12
|
TOR
|
3.76
|
23
|
0.300
|
20
|
96
|
18
|
-0.5
|
15
|
7.1%
|
28
|
43.8%
|
2
|
8.0%
|
12
|
22.7%
|
16
|
Edge – sEA
Conclusion: This is a 1st 5 so I’m not bothering with the bullpens.
The Jays are supposed to have the better offense, but so far that hasn’t been the case. Of course that could change at at any time.
Nothing stifles offense like good pitching and that is the huge mismatch in this game. The Jays have a great starting pitcher and the Mariners are starting a bad joke. Don’t take my word for it. Look at the stats.
Marco Gonzalez has a high WHIP, but somehow a good ERA. It’s a mirage and won’t last. His ERA metrics are all more than 2 runs higher than his ERA! Hiw wOBA and xWOBA are closing in on .400. His K rate is lousy and his walk rate is high.
By contrast, Kevin Gausman has 6 good starts out of 7. He has a sub 1.00 WHIP and an ERA under 3.00. His ERA metrics are all under 3.00 with wOBA and xwOBA both well under league average. Gausman’s K rate is elite and and he’s given up just 2 walks and 0 HRs in 45 innings. This is a no-brainer.
I don’t trut the Jays pen or for that matter their offense, but for 5 innings, I’ll take Gausman over Gonzals every samn time.
Pick – TOR 1st 5 ML in a series of ML parlays.
STL @ NYM
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
STL
|
Hicks - R
|
(2/5)
|
(3/5)
|
1.44
|
4.15
|
4.60
|
4.42
|
4.11
|
0.44
|
0.294
|
0.357
|
23.6%
|
13.5%
|
0.216
|
71.4%
|
58.5%
|
NYM
|
Scherzer
|
(5/7)
|
(2/7)
|
0.91
|
2.66
|
2.71
|
3.02
|
2.98
|
2.64
|
0.250
|
0.281
|
32.5%
|
6.5%
|
0.253
|
83.3%
|
35.4%
|
Edge – NYM big
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
STL
|
(6-2)
|
(7/8)
|
0.39
|
5
|
1.22
|
15
|
3.38
|
8
|
77.7%
|
4
|
20.6%
|
27
|
8.6%
|
8
|
NYM
|
(6-6)
|
(11/16)
|
0.41
|
8
|
1.16
|
9
|
3.59
|
14
|
75.4%
|
9
|
29.8%
|
1
|
9.5%
|
18
|
Edge – STL small
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
STL
|
4.50
|
11
|
0.318
|
11
|
109
|
10
|
18.9
|
6
|
8.6%
|
15
|
33.9%
|
30
|
6.2%
|
29
|
19.2%
|
1
|
NYM
|
4.37
|
12
|
0.319
|
7
|
111
|
8
|
16.0
|
10
|
8.9%
|
11
|
35.8%
|
26
|
6.4%
|
25
|
20.1%
|
6
|
Edge – NYM small
Conclusion: These tewo teams split a doubleheader yesterday, by identical 4-3 score. Offensively and in the ullpen this is a close matchup between two very good teams. However, when we get to the two starting pitchers, that is a mismatch.
Jotan Hicks has more below average starts than above average ones. His wHIP is high, his ERA is mediocre and so are his ERA metrics. His xWOBA is about 60 points higher than his wOBA. Hicks does have a decent K rate, but a very high walk and a very low BABIP that will almost certainly rise and as it does so will his ERA.
Max Scherzer is elite and has been for many season now. 5 of his 7 starts graded as abve average with a sub 1.00 WHIP and a sub 3.00 ERA. His ERA metris are totally consistent with is stellar eRA, as are both his wOBA and xwOBA. His K rate remains elite with a solid walk rate to go with it. That’s what you expect from an ace and Scherzer in still a legitimate ace.
Pick – NYM 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays.