HTN @ BOS
Starting Pitchers
6:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
HTN
|
Garcia – R
|
(4/6)
|
(2/6)
|
0.95
|
2.94
|
2.75
|
3.71
|
3.57
|
3.19
|
0.271
|
0.283
|
27.8%
|
6.8%
|
0.222
|
80.8%
|
38.4%
|
BOS
|
Pivetta – R
|
(3/7)
|
(4/7)
|
1.40
|
5.08
|
5.43
|
4.00
|
4.01
|
4.08
|
0.323
|
0.383
|
12.8%
|
9.7%
|
0.312
|
68.4%
|
29.9%
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HOU
|
(6-5)
|
(8/11)
|
0.35
|
3
|
1.15
|
6
|
2.69
|
2
|
77.6%
|
5
|
24.5%
|
10
|
8.2%
|
6
|
BOS
|
(7-12)
|
(7/16)
|
0.55
|
25
|
1.22
|
15
|
4.27
|
24
|
68.0%
|
25
|
24.3%
|
13
|
9.3%
|
16
|
Edge – HTN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HOU
|
4.51
|
10
|
0.319
|
7
|
116
|
3
|
23.8
|
3
|
10.0%
|
5
|
41.9%
|
5
|
9.0%
|
8
|
21.6%
|
10
|
BOS
|
3.78
|
22
|
0.287
|
25
|
86
|
25
|
-20.3
|
27
|
6.7%
|
29
|
39.1%
|
14
|
8.6%
|
9
|
22.0%
|
12
|
Edge – HTN
Conclusion: These two teams split the first two games of this series with the Red Sox winning 6-3 on Monday and the Astros romping 13-4 last night. Offensively, while the Red Sox have hit better recently,, they are still a bottom third of the league offense, while the Astros are a top 10 offense. Although ot’s not relevant here, since this is a 1st 5, the Astros also have the better pen. This bet is about the two starting pitchers and I think the Astros have a clear edge here.
Luis Garcia has now started 6 games for the Astros with 4 grading as above average and 2 grading as below. He’s carrying an excellent sub 1.00 WHIP and sub 3.00 ERA Garcia’s ERA metrics are mostly about half a run higher than his ERA, but still good. His wOBA and xwOBA are both lower than league average. His low BABIP tells me that Garcia may have been the beneficiary of some good luck on batted balls and that tends to even out ovr the course of a season. Garcia is pitching well.
Nick Pivetta has now started 7 games for the Red Sox with 3 grading as above average and 4 grading as below. Pivetta has given up 19 runs on 33 hits and 14 walks over 31.2 innings with 33 Ks. That certainly explains the high WHIP and ERA. The really scary part is that his xERA is even higher than his ERA and his ERA metrics while all about a run lower than his eRA, are all over 4.00. His K rate is poor and his walk rate is high Yes, he’s coming off a coupl of good outings, but eerything in Pivetta’s statistical profile is attrocios. ERA metrics, wOBA and xWOBA, a poor K rate and high walk rate. There’s absolutely nothing positive I can say about Pivetta.
Pick – HTN 1st 5 RL (+105 for 1 unit)
WASH @ MIA
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
WASH
|
Gray - R
|
(4/7)
|
(3/7)
|
1.35
|
4.34
|
4.90
|
5.39
|
4.41
|
4.26
|
0.350
|
0.367
|
24.8%
|
11.5%
|
0.256
|
82.9%
|
21.9%
|
MIA
|
Lopez – R
|
(6/7)
|
(1/7)
|
0.81
|
1.05
|
2.31
|
2.11
|
2.62
|
2.76
|
0.213
|
0.260
|
28.4%
|
4.9%
|
0.236
|
90.1%
|
46.3%
|
Edge – MIA
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
WSN
|
(2-3)
|
(3/6)
|
0.51
|
21
|
1.35
|
24
|
3.90
|
20
|
70.7%
|
17
|
22.8%
|
20
|
9.0%
|
14
|
MIA
|
(3-6)
|
(9/13)
|
0.43
|
10
|
1.24
|
17
|
3.43
|
10
|
74.5%
|
10
|
24.4%
|
11
|
9.6%
|
19
|
Edge – MIA
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WSN
|
4.11
|
14
|
0.307
|
16
|
96
|
18
|
-13.8
|
23
|
8.0%
|
19
|
36.7%
|
23
|
6.6%
|
21
|
19.9%
|
3
|
MIA
|
4.26
|
13
|
0.310
|
15
|
103
|
14
|
2.7
|
14
|
8.4%
|
16
|
36.8%
|
22
|
8.4%
|
11
|
24.1%
|
21
|
Edge – MIA
Conclusion: The Marlins seem to have all the edges here. These two offenses are close, but the Marlins appear to have the slightly better RPG, wOBA, wRC+, ORAA and walk rate, so I give them a small edge.
As for the two bullpens, that’s not quite as close, since the Marlins’ pen has the better save rate, WHIP, ERA, strand rate and K rate.
That leaves the two starting pitchers and here I give the Marlins an edge.
Josiah Gray has started 7 games with 4 grading as above average and 3 grading as below average. Gray has given up a total of 18 runs on 31 hits and 18 walks over 37.1 innings with 38 Ks. His WHIP is high and his ERA is mediocre. His ERA metrics are mostly a little higher than his ERA and all mediocre. Gray’s K rate, however, is elite, but his walk rate is quite high and he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (51%), so HRs are always a concern. He gave up 19 in just under 71 innings last season and has given up83 this season. With his kind of K potential, Gray definitely has an upside, but hasn’t developed any consistency yet..
Pablo Lopez has started 7 games for the Marlins with 6 grading as above average and just one grading as below. In his 7just 6 runs (5 earned) on 27 hits and 8 walks over 43 innings with 46 Ks! You can’t pitch much better than that. That why Lopez is sitting with a sub 1.00 WHIP and barely over 1.00 ERA. Yeah, his xERA and ERA metrics are all higher, but they are all still really low, iunder 3.00. The same pattern applies to his wOBA and xwOBA. The discrepancies between the actual numbers and the metrics can be explained by a very high strand rate that’s about 17 points higher that his career rate and a very low BABIP, that’s more than 50 points lower than his career average. Neither is sustainable and we could see Lopez’s ERA rise closer to where his metrics say that it should be, which would still be very good. Now throw in a solid K rate and a low walk rate and this guy looks like he could be a Cy Young contender.
Pick – MIA 1st 5 and ffull game MLs in a series of parlays.
SD @ PHIL
Starting Pitchers
6:45
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
SD
|
Snell - L
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PHIL
|
Wheeler - R
|
(3/6)
|
(3/6)
|
1.26
|
4.26
|
3.09
|
3.11
|
3.60
|
3.58
|
0.315
|
0.299
|
23.9%
|
7.5%
|
0.322
|
69.7%
|
40.4%
|
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SDP
|
(9-6)
|
(15/21)
|
0.52
|
22
|
1.16
|
9
|
4.18
|
23
|
67.2%
|
26
|
24.4%
|
11
|
8.9%
|
13
|
PHI
|
(7-6)
|
(9/13)
|
0.53
|
23
|
1.40
|
26
|
4.38
|
27
|
69.4%
|
21
|
25.5%
|
7
|
11.8%
|
30
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
SDP
|
4.57
|
10
|
0.305
|
17
|
100
|
15
|
-1.6
|
16
|
10.4%
|
2
|
36.9%
|
21
|
6.3%
|
28
|
22.4%
|
14
|
PHI
|
4.91
|
4
|
0.331
|
1
|
112
|
6
|
22.0
|
4
|
8.0%
|
19
|
42.4%
|
4
|
8.5%
|
10
|
23.3%
|
18
|
Edge – Pgil
Conclusion: The Padres took the first game of this series 3-0 yesterday behind a strong outing by Mike Clevinger. Both of the se team can hit but of the two, the Phils are better hitting team. Just ask the Dodgers about that. Neither bullpen is very good and I don’t trust either one, which is why this is a 1st 5 bet.
That leaves the two starting pitchers and I’m not even going to break these two starters down.
Blake Snell is just off the IL (froin) and last pitched on April 10 and didn’t last long enough to get a single out in that one. I boubt that he goes long. He’ll probably be on a pitch count. I also doubt that he’lll be sharp.
Zach Wheeler’s WHIP and ERA may well be higher than we are used to seeing, but check out the ERA metrics, they are all abouat a full run lower than his mediocre ERA and all very good. Wheeler was behind the rest of the Phils' starters because of offseason shoulder soreness. He essentially didn’t really have a spring training and it show in his first three starts in which Wheeler gave up 12 runs on 17 hits and 4 walks over 12.2 innings with 11 Ks. He’s been much better since and I expect he will be much better than Snell tonight.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 RL (-115 for 1unit)