Well, Dylan Cease performed every bit as well as I had hoped he would and the White Sox finally broke through for three runs in the top of the 5th. May the evening go as well.
Here are the write up on the Early Games
DET @ TB
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
DET
|
Brieske - R
|
(2/4)
|
(2/4)
|
1.19
|
3.86
|
5.75
|
6.58
|
5.82
|
5.86
|
0.314
|
0.392
|
12.6%
|
11.5%
|
33.3%
|
0.164
|
83.3%
|
TB
|
McClanahan - L
|
(5/7)
|
(2/7)
|
0.92
|
2.52
|
2.48
|
2.64
|
1.65
|
1.86
|
0.252
|
0.269
|
38.2%
|
5.6%
|
61.4%
|
0.269
|
83.3%
|
Edge TB big
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
DET
|
(7-9)
|
(8/11)
|
0.33
|
2
|
1.09
|
3
|
2.73
|
3
|
77.3%
|
6
|
23.1%
|
18
|
10.3%
|
23
|
TBR
|
(15-5)
|
(11/17)
|
0.50
|
19
|
1.10
|
4
|
3.52
|
13
|
68.4%
|
23
|
22.7%
|
21
|
7.2%
|
2
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
DET
|
2.86
|
30
|
0.276
|
29
|
83
|
28
|
-30.6
|
28
|
7.9%
|
24
|
34.7%
|
29
|
6.0%
|
29
|
23.2%
|
17
|
TBR
|
4.17
|
13
|
0.302
|
18
|
107
|
12
|
9.9
|
12
|
8.0%
|
19
|
39.1%
|
14
|
6.4%
|
25
|
23.8%
|
20
|
Edge – TB
Conclusion: The Tigers won a close one last night 3-2. After the Rays had tied it a 2-2 in the bottom of the 8th, Harold Castro hit his first HR of the season with two outs in the9th to give the Tigers the W. The Rays are the much better team in most respects, but sometimes it doesn’t work out that way. This Tiger team may be that good, but they play hard and don’t quit. That’ss a positive reflection of how this team has played under manager AJ Hunch. The Rays have the much better offense. Tit’s not a great offense, but it is clearly better than the offensively challenged Tigers, who rank in the bottom three in RPG, wOBA, wRC+ and ORAA.
The bullpen matchup looks surprising close. The Tigers’ pen has been a lot better than most (including yours truly) expected. Most didn’t expect ir to be very good. They were good again last night. The Rays’ pen, on the other hand, is always good, and manager Kevin Cash seems to always get the best out of his bullpen. Andrew Kitteridge, who has pitched well this season, just made one mistake and it cost the Rays the game.
Tonight, the Rays also get a huge edge in the starting pitching matchup.
Beau Brieske has now started 4 games for the Tigers with 2 grading as above average and 2 grading as beloe. That doesn’t sound too bad does it? Brieske has given up a total of 10 runs (9 earned) on 15 hits and 10 walks over 21 innings with 11 Ks. That 11/10 K/BB ratio is pretty ugly and doesn’t bode well for Brieske going forward. His WHIP and ERA are both decent, but the rest of his profile stinks to high heaven. His ERA metrics are all 2 to 3 runs higher than his ERA. The same goes for his xwOBA, which is almost 89 points higher than his actual wOBA. Next, we throw in a lousy K rate and a very high walk rate. This guy has only fanner one more batter than he’s walked! That’s never a good thing. Finally, we see an incredibly low BABIP. That tells me that Brieske has been incredibly lucky on batted balls in play. Luck tends to even out and that BABIP won’t last. Everything about this guy screams regression. Ho should come with a glowing sign that reads “Radioactive for betters”. All the warning signs tell me that this guy is toxic.
Shane McClanahan has started 7 games with 5 of them grading as above average and just 2 grading as below. He has yet to give up more than 3 runs in any of his starts this season, and in 5 of them it was 2 or less. McClanahan has given up a total of 12 runs (11 earned) on 26 hits and 10 walks over 39.1 innings with an impressive 58 Ks. His WHIP is under 1.00 and his ERA is under 3.00. McClanahan’s ERA metrics are all totally consistent with his stellar ERA. His wOBA and xwOBA are both much lower than league average and he has an elite K rate with a decent walk rate.
The Rays have all the edges here and I just don’t see the Tigers winning two in a row here against a pissed off Rays team.
Pick – TB ML in a series of parlays
NYY @ BALT
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
NYY
|
Taillon - R
|
(3/6)
|
(2/6)
|
1.17
|
2.93
|
2.94
|
3.23
|
3.65
|
3.55
|
0.323
|
0.292
|
19.4%
|
2.3%
|
46.9%
|
0.313
|
82.8%
|
BALT
|
Watkins - R
|
(2/6)
|
(4/6)
|
1.58
|
5.19
|
6.72
|
5.72
|
5.24
|
5.38
|
0.381
|
0.417
|
11.0%
|
10.2%
|
47.3%
|
0.287
|
66.8%
|
Edge – NYY big
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
(15-6)
|
(12/17)
|
0.30
|
1
|
1.15
|
6
|
2.50
|
1
|
79.1%
|
2
|
25.2%
|
9
|
9.8%
|
21
|
BAL
|
(8-11)
|
(7/8)
|
0.43
|
10
|
1.20
|
13
|
3.40
|
9
|
72.1%
|
13
|
22.3%
|
23
|
9.4%
|
17
|
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
4.91
|
4
|
0.329
|
2
|
122
|
1
|
29.6
|
1
|
10.0%
|
5
|
47.2%
|
1
|
12.1%
|
1
|
22.4%
|
14
|
BAL
|
3.26
|
29
|
0.292
|
22
|
93
|
20
|
-8.0
|
20
|
8.0%
|
19
|
40.0%
|
11
|
7.1%
|
18
|
24.5%
|
24
|
Edge – NYY big
Conclusion: The Yanks have all the edges in this one. First of all, they have the vastly superior offense. The Yanks rank in the top 5 in almost every single offensive category that I look at, the one exception being a 14th ranked K rate. By contrast, the O’s mostly rank in the bottom third.
As for these two bullpens, the Yanks pen is elite, with 15 wins and 12 saves in 17 opportunities. They rank in the top 5 in R/IP, WHIP, ERA and strand rate. The O’s pen is much improved this season and currently ranks as an above average unit, but they’re not in the Yanks class.
As for the two starting pitchers, that looks to me like another mismatch.
Jameson Taillon has now started with 3 grading as above average, 1 grading as average and 2 grading as below average. He has given up 2 runs or less in every single one of his starts. For the season, Taillon has given up a total of just 10 runs on 33 hit and only 2 walks over 30.2 innings with 25 Ks. His WHIP and ERA are both good and his ERA metrics, while mostly about a half a run higher than his ERA, are still very solid. Taillon’s wOBA is a little higher than league average, but his xwOBA is about 30 points lower. His K rate is pedestrian\, but he’s hardly walking anyone and generating a fair number of GBs. The bottom line is that Taillon’s pitched really well and has kept the Yanks in every single game that he’s started, qn with that offense, more often than not, that’s good enough.
Spencer Watkins has now started 6 games for the O’s with just 2 grading as above average and 4 grading as below. Watkins has given up a total of 18 runs (15 earned) on 29 hits and 12 walks over 26 innings with just 13 Ks. That’s left him with a high WHIP and ERA. Watkins’ ERA metrics are all even higher than his ERA and his xwOBA is also 36 point higher than his already very high wOBA. I’m guessing that a piss-poor K rate and high walk rate have a lot to do with that. That 13/12 K/BB ratio is just asking for trouble.
The Yanks have all the edges here and most by a wide margin.
Pick – NYY 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
WASH @ MIA
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
WASH
|
Adon - R
|
(1/7)
|
(5/7)
|
1.72
|
7.03
|
6.93
|
5.44
|
5.23
|
5.20
|
0.370
|
0.422
|
19.2%
|
15.2%
|
44.1%
|
0.308
|
63.7%
|
MIA
|
Poteet - R
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
0.98
|
0.55
|
2.88
|
2.67
|
3.67
|
3.68
|
0.223
|
0.289
|
22.2%
|
11.1%
|
52.4%
|
0.214
|
93.8%
|
Edge – MIA
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
WSN
|
(2-3)
|
(3/6)
|
0.51
|
21
|
1.35
|
24
|
3.90
|
20
|
70.7%
|
17
|
22.8%
|
20
|
9.0%
|
14
|
MIA
|
(3-6)
|
(9/13)
|
0.43
|
10
|
1.24
|
17
|
3.43
|
10
|
74.5%
|
10
|
24.4%
|
11
|
9.6%
|
19
|
Edge – MIA
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WSN
|
4.11
|
14
|
0.307
|
16
|
96
|
18
|
-13.8
|
23
|
8.0%
|
19
|
36.7%
|
23
|
6.6%
|
21
|
19.9%
|
3
|
MIA
|
4.26
|
13
|
0.310
|
15
|
103
|
14
|
2.7
|
14
|
8.4%
|
16
|
36.8%
|
22
|
8.4%
|
11
|
24.1%
|
21
|
Edge – MIA
Conclusion: The Marlins seem to have all the edges here. These two offenses are close, but the Marlins appear to have the slightly better RPG, wOBA, wRC+, ORAA and walk rate, so I give them a small edge.
As for the two bullpens, that’s not quite as close, since the Marlins’ pen has the better save rate, WHIP, ERA, strand rate and K rate.
That leaves the two starting pitchers and here I give the Marlins an edge, but not cause of their starting pitchers. Ut’s more about the Nats starting pitcher and how bad he is.
Joan Adon has started 7 games with just 1 grading as above average and the other 6 all grading as below. Adon has given up 25 runs on 32 hits and 23 walks over 32 innings with 29 Ks. Those are some truly ugly numbers. Between the 32 hits and 23 walks, that’s 55 baserunners in 32 innings, and it certainly explains Adon’s extremely high WHIP and ERA. His ERA metrics are a little lower but still really bad, all over 5.00. Adon’s wOBA is 65 points higher than league average and his xwOBA is more than 50 points higher than his already very high wOBA. His K rate is pedestrian and his walk rate is high. There’s nothing to like about Adon’s statistical profile.
I had every intention of using the Marlins as part of my parlay card, but I just don’t trust Cody Poteet enough to risk multiple units in a series of parlays. This will be Poteet’s first start of the season. He has appeared in a total of 8 games for the Marlins, all out of the bullpen. Poteet has only given up 1 run on 9 hits and 7 walks over 16.1 innings with 14 Ks. What concens me is the 7 walks in just over 16 innings. That’s a lot. His WHIP and ERA look great and his ERA metrics while more than a run higher are still very good. Poteet’s xwOBA is also more than 60 points higher than his wOBA, but still about 40 points lower than league average.
The problem is that it’s all such a small sample size for Poteet that I don’t trust the data enough to risk multiple units as part of my parlay card, so instead, I’ll fade Adon and lay the half a run for 5 innings.
Pick – MIA 1st 5 RL (-115 for 1 unit)