For what It’s worth, my really bas stretch came to at least a temporary halt yesterday as I finally had a winning day. It wasn’t a great day, but it sure beat the hell out of getting my head regularly handed to me.
I used four teams and a total of five sides on my parlay card, the Rays ML, the Marlins 1st 5 and full game ML, the Yankees ML and the Dodgers ML. All but the Rays cashed, and I really thought that the Rays were going to win after they tied the game at 2-2 in the bottom of the 8th, but it was not to be. The Tigers aren’t good yet, but damn, they play hard and don’t quit. I think that is a tribute to their manager AJ Hinch. I consider him very underrated as opposed to say the Dodger Dave Roberts, who I consider to be vastly overrated.
’ll keep on plugging away. My parlay system is a “high variance strategy”, but it has also consistently hit at an over 80% clip over the past several seasons, just not so far this season. I still trust the process and believe that by the time we hit the end of the regular season I’ll be ahead.
As for the recap, that’s simple. The Rays lost a tough one 3-2, but the Marlins won both their first 5 and full game. The Yankees continued to roll and the Dodgers held on. My one other loser was the Angels ML. That game looked like it was going to be a high scoring affair. The Angels jumped on Jon Gray for three quick 1st inning runs, but the Rangers returned the favor with four off Noah Syndegaard in the 2nd and added two more in the 3rs. That was 9 runs in the first three innings, then suddenly the scoring just stopped. Each team would score just one more run each, and that wasn’t enough.
As a result, I picked up 2.78 units yesterday. That still leaves me -16.42 units for the season, but it is a step in the right direction.
BTW, thanks again to those of you who took the time out of your busy schedules to post some encouraging words. They were truly appreciated. I’m not giving up. Not by a longshot. The season is still young and I still believe in my process. It has been a long-term winner for several seasons now and I believe it will win again this season.
Lat’s move on to today. It’s a very big slate of games, but there are just a few that I really like, so I’ll stick with tose and maybe add a couple of sides later, I’m still not sure. For now I’m riding three teams, the White Sox (1st 5 only), the Rays and the Yankees. Here is my parlay card:
ML Parlays
|
Team 1
|
Tean 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
CHI WS 1st 5
|
TB 1st 5
|
111
|
2
|
|
CHI WS 1st 5
|
TB ML
|
108
|
2
|
|
CHI WS 1st 5
|
NYY 1st 5
|
120
|
2
|
|
CHI WS 1st 5
|
NYY ML
|
121
|
2
|
|
TB 1st 5
|
NYY 1st 5
|
101
|
2
|
|
TB 1st 5
|
NYY 1st 5
|
100
|
2
|
|
TB ML
|
NYY 1st 5
|
-102
|
2
|
|
TB ML
|
NYY 1st 5
|
-103
|
2
|
Here is the write up on the afternoon game. I’ll have the other two shortly
CHI WS @ KC
Starting Pitchers
2:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
CHI WS
|
Cease - R
|
(5/7)
|
(2/7)
|
1.11
|
3.55
|
2.00
|
2.34
|
2.53
|
2.53
|
0.267
|
0.242
|
36.9%
|
9.6%
|
43.9%
|
0.3
|
72.2%
|
KC
|
Heasley - R
|
)0/1)
|
(1/1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – CHI WS
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
CHW
|
(8-6)
|
(14/22)
|
0.54
|
24
|
1.37
|
25
|
4.10
|
22
|
68.3%
|
24
|
23.5%
|
17
|
11.1%
|
27
|
KCR
|
(9-7)
|
(7/12)
|
0.55
|
26
|
1.41
|
27
|
4.31
|
25
|
69.1%
|
22
|
22.9%
|
19
|
11.0%
|
26
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
KCR
|
3.67
|
24
|
0.281
|
27
|
85
|
26
|
-17.2
|
24
|
7.8%
|
27
|
37.1%
|
20
|
6.5%
|
23
|
19.2%
|
1
|
CHW
|
3.59
|
25
|
0.285
|
26
|
90
|
22
|
-8.5
|
21
|
6.2%
|
30
|
42.9%
|
3
|
9.8%
|
6
|
19.9%
|
3
|
Edge – CHI WS slight
Conclusion: There’s really no that much to choose from, between these two teams. Last night the White Sox won a tight one 5-2 on a 2-run HR in the 10th by Luis Robert.
Offensively the White Sox have most of the edges, but they are mostly so damned small that although I guess I give the White Sox the edge, it’s certainly not enough to be on.
I see not edge to be had by either bullpen. Neither is very good and neither can be trusted in a close game.
That leaves the two starting pitchers and that is where I see areal edge for the White Sox.
Dylan Cease has now started 7 games for the White Sox with 5 grading as above average and 2 grading as below The Yankees did light him up for 6 runs in his last start, but that was the Yanks, not the Royals. This season, Cease has given up a total of 15 runs on 27 hits and 15 walks over 38 innings with an impressive 58 Ks. He has a very good WHIP and solid ERA , Cease’s ERA metrics are all at least a full run lower than his ERAand the same pattern applies to his xwOBA, which is about 25 points lower than his actual one. I’m not sure why his metrics are all significantly beeter, but I kow that it’s a good thing. Cease has an elite K rate and combines in with a pretty good GB rate, a rarity in a pitcher with those kind of elite K pitchers. The only problem that I see is a high walk rate. He’s walked 15 in 38 innings and that’s a lot.
Jonathan Heasley has only started 1 game for the Royals and that was at the Rangers. In that start, he gave up 1 run on 4 hits and over 3.1 innings with 4 walks and just 1 K. I did not include stats because the sample size is too small to have any meaning. Heasley didn’t show much is that one start, but the 4 hits and 4 walks in just over 3 innings is a huge red flag. I want no part of Heasley.
For five innings, I'll take my chances on Cease is a nice bounceback spot.
Pick – CHI WS 1st 5 in a series of parlays