My apologies I made a mistake in my original post earlier today. I DID NOT use the TB 1st 5 on my parlay card. In fact, as I wrote in my post, I just don’t trust Corey Kluber enough to bet a 1st 5.
Here is the correct parlay card:
ML Parlays
|
Team 1
|
Tean 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
TB ML
|
MIA 1st 5
|
134
|
2
|
|
TB ML
|
MIA ML
|
136
|
2
|
|
TB ML
|
NYY ML
|
132
|
2
|
|
TB ML
|
LAD ML
|
121
|
2
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
NYY ML
|
136
|
2
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
LAD ML
|
124
|
2
|
|
MIA ML
|
NYY ML
|
137
|
2
|
|
MIA ML
|
LAD ML
|
126
|
2
|
|
NYY ML
|
LAD ML
|
122
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
LAA ML
|
|
-137
|
2
|
Here’s the complete NYY @ BALT write up as well as the LAA @ TEX write up. I’ll post the Dodger write up later tonight.
NYY @ BALT
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
NYY
|
Severino - R
|
(2/6)
|
(3/6)_
|
1.33
|
4.08
|
3.06
|
3.80
|
3.36
|
3.40
|
0.336
|
0.297
|
25.0%
|
7.3%
|
45.7%
|
0.301
|
73.3%
|
BALT
|
Bradish - R
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
1.06
|
4.24
|
3.82
|
4.22
|
3.37
|
3.19
|
0.324
|
0.329
|
25.0%
|
4.7%
|
43.2%
|
0.293
|
67.60%
|
Edge – None
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
(15-6)
|
(12/17)
|
0.30
|
1
|
1.15
|
6
|
2.50
|
1
|
79.1%
|
2
|
25.2%
|
9
|
9.8%
|
21
|
BAL
|
(8-11)
|
(7/8)
|
0.43
|
10
|
1.20
|
13
|
3.40
|
9
|
72.1%
|
13
|
22.3%
|
23
|
9.4%
|
17
|
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
4.91
|
4
|
0.329
|
2
|
122
|
1
|
29.6
|
1
|
10.0%
|
5
|
47.2%
|
1
|
12.1%
|
1
|
22.4%
|
14
|
BAL
|
3.26
|
29
|
0.292
|
22
|
93
|
20
|
-8.0
|
20
|
8.0%
|
19
|
40.0%
|
11
|
7.1%
|
18
|
24.5%
|
24
|
Edge – NYY big
Conclusion: The Tanks have several significant edges in this one. First of all, they have the vastly superior offense. The Yanks rank in the top 5 in almost every single offensive category that I look at, the one exception being a 14th ranked K rate. By contrast, the O’s mostly rank in the bottom third.
As for these two bullpens, the Yanks pen is elite, with 15 wins and 12 saves in 17 opportunities. They rank in the top 5 in R/IP, WHIP, ERA and strand rate. The O’s pen is much improved this season and currently ranks as an above average unit, but they’re not in the Yanks class.
As for the two starting pitchers, that looks to me like a wash. Luis Sevarine hasb’t been all that sharp with just 2 of his 5 starts grading as above average and 3 grading as below average. His WHIP is high and his ERA is mediocre, but his ERA metrics are all about a half a run lower than his ERA. The same pattern holds true with his xwOBA which is about 40 points lower than his wOBA.
Kyle Bradish has now started 3 games with 1 grading as above average and 2 grading as below average. He has given up a total of 9 runs (8 earned) on 15 hits (3 HRs) and 3 walks over 17 innings with 16 Ks. It’s still an extremely small sample size. Bradish’s WHIP is good mostly because of a low walk rate, but his ERA is mediocre. His ERA metrics are mostly lower than his ERA and his wOBA and xwOBA are both slightly higher than league average. My biggest concerns are a high 45.5% hard contact rate and the 3 HRs that Bradish has given up.
I don’t see a real edge for either starting pitcher, but the Yanks have bigs edges with the bats and in the bullpen, so I’ll forgo a 1st 5 wager and stick with the full game.
Pick – NYY ML in a series of parlays
LAA @ TEX
Starting Pitchers
8:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
LAA
|
Syndergaard - R
|
(4/5)
|
(0/5
|
1.06
|
2.45
|
3.62
|
3.38
|
3.97
|
3.93
|
0.267
|
0.321
|
17.5%
|
5.0%
|
49.5%
|
0.258
|
82.8%
|
TEX
|
Gray - R
|
(1/4)
|
(3/4)
|
1.22
|
5.51
|
3.88
|
4.33
|
3.65
|
3.94
|
0.295
|
0.331
|
22.1%
|
10.3%
|
50.0%
|
0.256
|
60.4%
|
Edge – LAA
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
LAA
|
(8-4)
|
(11/16)
|
0.44
|
12
|
1.05
|
2
|
3.45
|
12
|
72.0%
|
14
|
20.4%
|
28
|
7.1%
|
1
|
TEX
|
(8-10)
|
(7/9)
|
0.46
|
16
|
1.26
|
19
|
3.65
|
16
|
76.2%
|
8
|
23.8%
|
15
|
10.8%
|
25
|
Edge – LAA
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
LAA
|
4.92
|
3
|
0.329
|
2
|
120
|
2
|
24.9
|
2
|
9.3%
|
8
|
37.5%
|
19
|
10.1%
|
5
|
24.4%
|
23
|
TEX
|
3.97
|
18
|
0.281
|
27
|
88
|
24
|
-5.5
|
18
|
7.9%
|
24
|
39.5%
|
12
|
6.6%
|
21
|
21.6%
|
10
|
Edge – LAA big
Conclusion: The Angels have one really big edge and that is the much better offense. The Angels offense is among the three best in RPG, wOBA, wRC+ and ORAA. By contrast, the Rangers offenses ranks as well below average.
As for the two bullpens, the stats appear to give the Angels an edge there, but is quite small and certainly not enough to put money on.
As for the two starting pitchers, a surface glance makes it appear like the Angels have most of the edges there as well, but a deeper look and suddenly this looks pretty damned close with two guys who seem to have a lot of similarities.
Noah Syndergaard has now started 5 games for the Angels with 4 grading as above average and just 1 grading as below. Syndergaard has given up a total of 8 runs on 25 hits and 6 walks over 29.1 innings with 21 Ks. His WHIP and ERA are both very good. His ERA metrics, while about a run higher than his ERA, are all still solid. The same pattern can be found with his xwOBA bewing about 50 points higher that his actual wOBA. That discrepancy is probably because of a BABIP that’s about 50 points lower than his career rate and a K rate that is by far the lowest of his career and 8.5% lower than his career rate. As previously mentioned, Syndergaard;s K rate is way down from where it used to be and that appears to be a deliberate choice he made to trade Ks for GBs and it’s worked well so far with a near 50% GB rate.
Jon Gray has started 4 games with 1 grading as above average and 3 grading as below. Gray has given up 10 runs on 13 hits and 7 walks over 16.1 innings with 15 Ks. His WHIP is OK, but his ERA is very high. However, his ERA metrics are all more than a full run lower that his bloated ERA and fairly close to Syndergaard’s. I’m guessing that a poor strand rate, that’s about 11% lower than his career rate, and a high walk rate have a lot to do with that high ERA. Like Syndergaard, Gray has sacrificed Ks for GBs and his GB rate is even a little better than Syndergaard’s.
Simply stated, I expect the Angels to outscore the Rangers tonight.
Pick – LAA ML (-137 for 2 units)