For what it’s worth, The Astros offense finally showed up in a “must win” Game 5 in Atlanta on Sunday night. After scoring just two runs combined in Games 3 and 4 in ATL, the Astros erupted for 12 hits and 9 runs in Game 5 night to keep their season alive and send the World Series back to Houston for a Game 6 and possibly a Game 7. I had brts on the Astros ML, and the total going over 8.5. Both cashed leaving me +3.62 units for the day, and +54.41 units for the season. It hasn’t been one of my better seasons, but considering all the volatility that we experienced this season, I’ll take it.
The playoffs are always tougher for me because I thrive on betting mismatches and unfortunately, all the bad teams that I love to fade are long gone. The games are usually a lot closer in the playoffs. Playoff games are a lot less dependent on the starting pitching matchups (another factor that I love betting on during the regular season) because starting pitchers rarely go deep making 1st 5 bets a lot less reliable. They are also more dependent on bullpen performance and performance with runners in scoring position. How well a bullpen performs depends on so many factors including usage, and performance with runners in scoring position can change in an instant.
We have Game 6 from Houston tonight, and it is another “must win” for the Astros, but at least they are now back home. Here’s my writeup and pick(s) for Game 6.
ATL @ HTN
The Braves took Game 1 Tuesday night 5-2 in Houston, neutralizing any Astros home field edge, The Astros evened the series at one game each with a 7-2 win on Wednesday night in Houston. On Friday night, with bad weather in Atlanta, the Astros couldn’t hit worth shit and lost 2-0 giving the Braves a 2-1 lead in the series. On Saturday night, also in Atlanta, the Astros hitting woes continued as they squandered way to many scoring opportunities in a 3-2 loss, giving the Braves a huge 3-1 series lead. On Sunday night in Atlanta, after the Braves had taken a 4-0 lead on a 1st inning grand slam by Adam Duval, everything changed. The Braves finally found their offense and cranked out 12 hits and 9 runs in a 9-5 win that kept them alive and returned the series to Houston, where the Astros were 53-28 during the regular season and 5-2 in these playoffs. The Braves, by contrast, were 46-35 on the road during the regular season, and 3-4 in these playoffs.
Offenses (regular season)
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
ATL
|
4.91
|
7
|
0.323
|
9
|
98
|
12
|
39.3
|
10
|
9.1%
|
10
|
33.4%
|
5
|
24.0%
|
22
|
HTN
|
5.33
|
1
|
0.336
|
2
|
116
|
1
|
114.7
|
2
|
9.0%
|
11
|
33.2%
|
6
|
19.4%
|
1
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens (regular season)
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W/L %
|
Rank
|
ATL
|
0.480
|
8
|
1.32
|
17
|
3.97
|
10
|
74.0%
|
6
|
23.4%
|
18
|
9.4%
|
11
|
61.5%
|
18
|
48.4%
|
26
|
HOU
|
0.511
|
17
|
1.30
|
12
|
4.06
|
15
|
72.4%
|
14
|
25.7%
|
7
|
10.4%
|
19
|
55.7%
|
25
|
50.8%
|
22
|
Edge – None
Starting Pitchers: Max Fried (L) v Luis Garcia (R)
Max Fried has started 4 playoff games for the Braves this season. His first start against the Brewers in Game 2 of the NLDS, in MIL, was outstanding, as he tossed 6 scoreless innings, giving up just 3 hits and 0 walks, while striking out 9. Fried was not as sharp in his Game 1 start in the Braves NLCS series against the Dodgers, in ATL, giving up 8 hits (1 HR), but just 2 runs over 6 innings in the Braves 3-2 win. In his Game 5 NLCS start in LA, he struggled even more, giving up 5 runs on 8 hits (2 HRs) and 2 walks over 4.2 innings, while striking out 3. Finally, in Game 2 of this World Series in HTN, Fried again got lit up for 6 runs on 7 hits and a walk over 5 innings, while striking out 6. That’s a total of 13 runs on 26 hits (3 HRs) and 3 walks over 21.2 innings, while striking out 23. That comes out to a mediocre 1.34 WHIP and a very high 5.40 ERA. Froed also tossed a career high 192 innings during the regulzr season and 21.2 more in the poxt seaosn. His precious high was 155.2. He might simply be wearing down.
Fried pitched really well after returning from a stint on the IL, He started 28 games for the Braves during the regular season, with 21 grading as above average, including his last 12, and just 7 below average ones. Over that 12-start span, Fried gave up 17 runs (14 earned) on 53 hits and 11 walks over 81 innings, while striking out 73. That comes out to a 0.79 WHIP and 1.56 ERA! Fried’s overall 1.09 WHIP and 3.04 ERA were both very good, and while his 3.49 xERA and ERA metrics were all around a half a run higher than his ERA, they were all still good. Fried’s .278 wOBA was almost 40 points lower than league average and his .287 xwOBA wasn’t far behind. His 23.7% K rate was also fine, especially when combined with an excellent 51.8% GB rate and 6.1% walk rate. It should be noted that despite his obvious success, Fried did not faced the Astros during the regular season, but got lit up in his one start against them in Game 2 of this series. Fried pitched as well on the road during the regular season(1.08 WHIP, 3.14 ERA and .286 wOBA, as h did at home (1.09 WHIP, 2.94 ERA and .270 wOBA).
Luis Garcia has now also started 4 playoff games for the Astros this season. In Game 3 of the Astros ALDS series against the White Sox in CHI, he struggled, giving up 5 runs on 5 hits (1 HR) and 3 walks, lasting just 2.2 innings in the Astros 12-6 loss. Garcia then started Game 2 of the Astros ALCS series against the Red Sox in HTN, and again got shelled, giving up 6 runs (5 earned) on 8 hits (2 HRs) and 3 walks in just 1 inning. However, in Game 5 of that ALCS series, in HTN, Garcia was superb, giving up just 1 hit and 1 walk over 5.2 shutout innings, in a 5-0 Astros win. Finally, in Game 3 of this World Series, Garcia gave up 1 run on 3 hits, but 4 walks over 3.2 innings, while striking out 6. That’s at total of 12 runs (11 earned) on 17 hits and 11 walks in over just 13 postseason innings. That come out to an ugly 2.15 WHIP and very high 7.62 ERA
Garcia started 28 regular season games for the Astros this season, with 17 grading as above average, 1 grading as average, and 10 grading as below average. That left him with a good 1.17 WHIP and 3.30 ERA. Garcia’s 3.98 xERA and ERA metrics were mostly about a half a run higher than his ERA, but still decent. His .294 xwOBA was very close to his .305 wOBA, and both were a little lower than league average. Garcia also posted an impressive 26.4% K rate, with a decent 7.9% walk rate. Garcia did not face the Braves this season, but was much better at home, positing a 1.01 WHIP, a 2.39 ERA and a .264 wOBA in his 13 regular season starts at Minute Maid, as compared to a mediocre 1.34 WHIP, and 4.24 ERA along with a .324 wOBA on the road.
Conclusion: Offensively, both of these teams came into these playoffs with well above average offenses, but as good as the Braves offense was, the Astros were even better during the regular season. The Astros had the best offense in baseball. From top to bottom, their lineup was a tough one for any pitcher. They work counts, don't swing at bad pitches, and when pitchers throw strikes, they usually hit them, and they struck out less often than any other team in baseball. When we look at the situational metrics. The Astros usually punish lefties, posting a .338 wOBA (rank #4) 117 wRC+ (rank #1) against lefties during the regular season. The Braves are also pretty good against righties, but not as good, with a .325 wOBA (rank #20) and just a 93 (wRC+ (rank #25). The Astros were also very good at home with a .338 wOBA (rank #7) and a league leading 119 wRC+, which are both better than the Braves .318 wOBA (rank #9) and 97 wRC+ (rank #11) on the road. Both teams have struggled to hit as well in this series, with the Astros averaging 5.80 RPG with a .265 BA and a .744 OPS, as compared to the Braves who are averaging just 3.87 RPG with a .248 BA and a .731 OPS. Neither team has been very clutch is this series with the Astros going just 9 for 46 (19.6%) with runner in scoring position. That compares to 377 for 1,382 (27.9%) during the regular season. By contrast, the Braves are just marginally better, going 6 for 30 (20.0%). That’s compared to 333 for 1243 (26.8% during the regular season. Part of that discrepancy between the regular season and now can be attributed to facing better pitching, but what stands out to me is that the Astros had 16 more scoring opportunity. That’s more than a 50% higher opportunity rate and that should translate to more runs scored. One other consideration is that the Astros will get to take batting practice again. They missed it before the first two games in Atlanta because of bad weather. I’m not sure what to make of that, but after taking BP on Sunday, the Astros scored the most runs of either team in any game in this series.
As for the bullpens, neither pen was all that good or reliable during the regular season. However, both have performed much better than expected in these playoffs with the Astros giving up 0.38 earned runs per inning pitched, with a 1.28 WHIP and 3.43 ERA. By contrast, the Braves are giving up a lower 0.34 earned runs per inning pitched, with a lower 1.21 WHIP, and a lower 3.07 ERA.
That brings us to the starting pitchers and I’m not sure how much of an edge, if any, I should give to either one. Neither has pitched all that well in the playoffs. Fried was the better starting pitcher during the regular season, with the better WHIP, ERA, xERA, wOBA, xwOBA and walk rate, but Garcia’s ERA metrics were lower and he also had the clearly better K rate. My main concern with Garcia is that he will be pitching on just 3 days’ rest, after tossing 3,2 innings (72 pitches) in Game 3. Whilte starting pitchers generally haven’t gone deep in these playoffs, that’s still not an ideal situation, but the Astros pen is well rested, with the exception of Kendall Graveman who threw 37 pitches over 2 innings in Game 5, so manager Dusty Baker will have a very short hook with Garcia.
With the loss of Charlie Morton in Game 1, the Braves are suddenly without one of their top two starting pitchers. That’s a huge void at the top of their rotation. The Astros lost their top starting pitcher, Lance McCullers Jr. earlier in the playoffs leaving them with just three legitimate starters, and Zack Greinke who struggled down the stretch, but gave them 5 scoreless innings in Game 4, not to mention a key hit as a pinch hiter in Game 5.
I’m inclined to go right back to the same two wells that I’ve been drawing water from, again in this game. This is another “must win” game for the Astros, so there’s a real sense of urgency for them. Despite still being down 3-2, I still think that the Astros are actually the better team here, mostly because the numbers all say that they should have the better offense, both overall and situationally. However, until Sunday night, it hadn’t worked out that way in this series. The Astros scored 2, 7, 0, and 2 runs in the first four games before putting up 9 in Game 5, while the Braves scored 6, 2, 2, 3, and then 5. I have no logical explanation for that, nor can I give you a solid reason why it suddenly changed, but it did. All I can ay is that based on the numbers, the Astros should score more runs than the Braves. The Astros offense finally snapped out of their funk and put up 9 runs to beat the Braves. I don’t know if they can do that for the next two games, but if they can do it tonight, they’ll probably win this series and they damned sure are good enough to do it.
Tonight, I am again also playing over the total of 8.5. That particular bet is only 2-3 in this series, but regardless of what happened in three of the first five games of this series, these are still two very good offenses, with two heavily used bullpens that are pitching way over their heads, and two starting pitchers that have struggled in these playoffs. Additionally, one of them, Garcia, will be pitching on short rest.
As for the weather, it shouldn’t be much of a factor with temps expected to be around 72 degrees at game time with mostly clear skies and light winds.
I actually bet this one las night and the juice has risen a little on both bets, but I still think that they are both strong bets.
Pick – HTN ML (-116 for 2 unit) and Over 8.5 (-105 for 2 units)