For what it’s worth, Game 3 really hurt. I was fully cognizant of the weather conditions, and expected both offenses to be somewhat suppressed, but I sure as hell did not expect that the best offense in baseball would go scoreless, and not even get a single hit until the 6th inning. That should never happen. The only plus I could pull out of that hot mess is that ar least I was cautious, only risking 1 unit. That left me -1 unit for the day and +54.79 units for the season.
We have Game 4 from ATL tonight, so let’s get right to it. Here’s my writeup and picks for Game 2.
HTN @ ATL
The Braves took Game 1 Tuesday night 5-2, neutralizing any Astros home field edge, The Astros evened the series at one game each with a 7-2 win on Wednesday night. Last night in bad weather, the Astros couldn’t hit worth shit and lost 2-0 giving the Braves a 2-1 lead in the series with two more games to play in ATL.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
5.33
|
1
|
0.336
|
2
|
116
|
1
|
114.7
|
2
|
9.0%
|
11
|
33.2%
|
6
|
19.4%
|
1
|
ATL
|
4.91
|
7
|
0.323
|
9
|
98
|
12
|
39.3
|
10
|
9.1%
|
10
|
33.4%
|
5
|
24.0%
|
22
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W/L %
|
Rank
|
HOU
|
0.511
|
17
|
1.30
|
12
|
4.06
|
15
|
72.4%
|
14
|
25.7%
|
7
|
10.4%
|
19
|
55.7%
|
25
|
50.8%
|
22
|
ATL
|
0.480
|
8
|
1.32
|
17
|
3.97
|
10
|
74.0%
|
6
|
23.4%
|
18
|
9.4%
|
11
|
61.5%
|
18
|
48.4%
|
26
|
Edge – None
Starting Pitchers: Zack Greinke (R) v Dylan Lee (L)
Between injuries, two weeks on the COVID-related injured list, and a general lack of effectiveness late in the season, Zack Greinke has been limited to two appearances and 1 start during these playoffs. He pitched 1 inning out of the bullpen in Game 3 of the Astros ALDS series against the White Sox, giving up 2 hits, but 0 runs. Greinke then startedGame 4 of the Astros ALCS series with the Red Sox, giving up 2 runs on 1 hit (a HR) and 3 walks, but was pulled after just 1.1 innings. It’s eminently clear that the Astros don’t have much faith in Greinke (and neither do I) and will have a very quick hook and pull him at the first sign of touble.
Greinke started 29 games for the Astros this season, with 19 grading as above average, and 10 grading as below average, including his last 3. Greinke posted a decent 1.17 WHIP, but a mediocre 4.16 ERA. His 4.42 xERA and ERA metrics were all even higher than his mediocre ERA. That’s probably due to his poor 17.2% K rate which was the worst of his career and more than 5% lower than his career rate, and his .263 BABIP , which is about 25 points lower than his career average. Greinke’s .309 wOBA and .320 xwOBA are both right around league average. His biggest strength has always been that he didn’t create problems by walking a lot of batters and that was still the case this season, as posted just a 5.2% walk rate. However, while throughout his career, Greinke’s did a good job of limiting the long ball, this season he’s given up a career high 30 and his 1.58 HR/9 rate was much higher than his career 0.95 rate. Greinke is obviously facing serious age-related decline and it’s shown up in several of his starts. He doesn’t throw very hard these days. His FB, which averaged over 92 mph over his career, now tops out at barely 89 mph. Greinke’s also nowhere near as consistent as he used to be. His repertoire and his approach have helped him manage his decline, but he’s on his last legs and this could well be his last parade.
The Braves will give the ball to rookie. Dylan Lee, who will start Game 4 as an opener in a planned bullpen game in which Lee will the first of several Braves’ pitchers. Lee, 27, signed with the Braves in April after being released by the Marlins during spring training. He made his MLB debut on Oct. 1, in Game 159 of the season, and he made the postseason roster despite throwing just 2 regular season innings in which he gave up 2 runs on 2 hits (1HR), while striking out 3. Lee also has made two playoff appearances. In Game 2 od the Braves NLCS series against the Dodgers, he gave up 1 run on 3 hits while striking out 3 in the braves 11-2 loss, and he faced three batters in Game 2 of this series, retiring both batters with 1 K. That’s a total of 3 runs allowed on 6 hits (3 HRs), with 6 Ks in 4.2 MLB innings.
Conclusion: Offensively, both of these teams are loaded, but as good as the Braves were, the Astros were even better during the regular season. The Astros had the best offense in baseball. From top to bottom, the Astros’ lineup is a tough one for any pitcher. They work counts, don't swing at bad pitches, and when you throw strikes, they hit them. This team struck out less often than any other team in baseball. When we look at the situational metrics. The Astros usually punish lefties, posting a .338 wOBA (rank #4) and a 117 wRC+ (rank #1). The Braves are pretty good against righties, but not as good, with a .325 wOBA (rank #20) and just a 93 (wRC+ (rank #25), The Astros are also very good on the road with a league leading .335 wOBA and 113 wRC+, which are both better than the Braves .325 wOBA (rank #8) and 99 wRC+ (rank #17). Both teams have continued to hit fairly well in the playoffs with h the Astros averaging 6.33 RPG with a .276 BA and a .779 OPS. That compares to the Braves who are averaging just .4.00 RPG with a .252 BA and a .728 OPS.
As for the bullpens, neither pen was all that good or reliable during the regular season. However, both have performed much better than expected in these playoffs with the Astros giving up 0.39 earned runs per inning pitched with a 1.18 WHIP and 3.50 ERA. By contrast, the Braves are giving up a lower 0.35 earned runs per inning pitched, with a slightly lower 1.14 WHIP, and a lower 3.12 ERA.
That brings us to the starting pitchers and I’m not sure which I trust less, Greinke or Lee and the relievers that will follow for the Braves, and I’m not sure Greinke will hgo much deeper than Lee.
With the loss of Charlie Morton in Game , the Braves are suddenly without one of their top two starting pitchers and are looking at back-to-back bullpen games in both this game and again in Game 5. The Astros lost their top starting pitcher, Lance McCullers Jr earlier in the playoffs leaving them with just the three legitimate starters that they’ve used so far, and Greinke who’s at this stage of his career is more of an opener, starting only because of McCullers injury.
Yesterday, I decided that I would bet on whichever team lost last night, when I saw that Greinke was getting the start for the Astros, I had (and still have) my doubts. Despite what we saw in Games 1 and again last night3, I still think that the Astros are the better team here, mostly because they should have the better offense, overall and situationally. I have little faith in Greinke, but I expect the Astros offense to bounce back tonight. They’re too good not to.
Tonight, I am also playing over the total of 8.5, with two good offenses, two shaky and heavily used bullpens, and two starting pitchers that I don’t trust one bit. However, the weather forecast is my only concern. It is expected to remain chilly and breezy tonight with temperatures in the low 50′s and slowly clearing skies, but no precipitation..
Pick – HTN ML (-103 for 2 unit) and Over 8.5 (-117 for 2 units)