OAK @ SEA: Cole Irvin (L) v Chris Flexen (R)
This game and this series have clear playoff implications. The Mariners are two games out in the AL wild card race and the A’s are three games back. The loser of this series could be eliminated from the race.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
OAK
|
4.60
|
11
|
0.314
|
14
|
102
|
8
|
-1.0
|
14
|
9.0%
|
11
|
31.7%
|
19
|
22.0%
|
6
|
SEA
|
4.27
|
23
|
0.299
|
27
|
93
|
19
|
-74.1
|
26
|
9.0%
|
11
|
30.8%
|
26
|
25.2%
|
27
|
Edge - OAK
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
OAK
|
0.487
|
11
|
1.25
|
7
|
4.00
|
13
|
72.4%
|
12
|
20.5%
|
29
|
8.4%
|
4
|
60.0%
|
21
|
51.0%
|
22
|
SEA
|
0.500
|
16
|
1.23
|
5
|
3.95
|
10
|
69.1%
|
25
|
23.5%
|
19
|
8.1%
|
3
|
57.9%
|
23
|
50.0%
|
23
|
Edge – None
Starting Pitchers
Cole Irvin has pitched better than I expected for the A’s this season. He’s made 30 starts, with 14 that graded as above average, and 16 that graded as below average, including 7 of his last 8 starts. Of his 9 August and September starts, 7 graded as below average and just 2 graded as above average. In those 9 starts, Irvin has given up 49 runs (46 earned) on 61 hits and 16 walks over 46 innings. That comes out to an ugly 1.67 WHIP and 5.28 ERA. Irvin’s overall 1.31 WHIP and 3.99 ERA are both mediocre, but his 4.92 xERA is almost a full run higher than his ERA, as are most of his ERA metrics. Irvin’s .335 xwOBA is also higher than his .377 wOBA. That’s probably because of his poor 16.1% K rate, but he at least walks very few batters, posting a very good 5.2% walk rate and that’s been a reason why he’s had some success this season. Irvin has struggled in his 4 starts against the Mariners, posting an awful 2.11 WHIP and 7.56 ERA.
Chris Flexeen has started 29 games for the Mariners this season, with 20 grading as above average, including 7 of his last 8, and just 9 grading as below average. Flexen’s 1.24 WHIP 3.56 ERA are both solid, but his 4.32 xERA and ERA metrics are all considerably higher than his ERA. That’s probably due , at least in part, to his poor 17% K rate. Flexen’s .308 wOBA is lower than league average and his .316 xWOBA isn’t much higher. While Flexen doesn’t miss many bats, he doesn’t walk many either, with just a 5.5% walk rate. Flexen has started 4 games aginst the A’s going 2-2 with a good 1.12 WHIP and 3.24 ERA.
The big edge that I see here is at starting pitcher.
Pick – SEA 1st 5 RL (+116 for 2 units)