For what it’s worth, yesterday turned out to be a very good day. Of the four teams that I used on my parlay card, the Phils, Cards, Giants and Dodgers, all won both their 1st 5 and full game, with the exception of the Phils who lost the 1st 5 for the third straight day, but came back to win the game, again for the past three days.
I also had side bets on the Yankees 1st 5 RL, the Blue Jays 1st 5 and full game RLs, the Mariners ML, and the Braves 1st 5 RL. The Jays lost both the 1st 5 and full game, but the other three all cashed. When the some clear I picked up 13.37 units.
As mentioned yesterday, at this point in the season detailed write-ups are almost irrelevant for me. I pretty much know (or think I know) what we have with these teams and most of these pitchers, so until the playoffs start, I will be taking a week off from doing detailed write-ups. All you’ll get from is the pick and a few lines explaining why. Sorry, but I need and want a break.
Here’s what I’ve got today. Yes, I’m going right back to the parlays when the lines are too high to bet individually. Hopefully things stay normal and the teams that are supposed to win, do. Here’s the parlay card.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
STL ML
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
137
|
2
|
|
STL ML
|
PHIL ML
|
134
|
2
|
|
STL ML
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
150
|
2
|
|
STL ML
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
157
|
2
|
|
STL ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
143
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
111
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
117
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
105
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
LAD ML
|
104
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
107
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
114
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
102
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
LAD ML
|
101
|
2
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
128
|
2
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
116
|
2
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
114
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
122
|
2
|
|
|
LAD ML
|
121
|
2
|
Here are my picks and explanations for the afternoon games. Be back later with the night games.
STL @ CHI C: Lon Lester v Adrian Sampson
The Cards took two games from the Cubs yesterday and now hold the second NL wild card spot with a 5-game lead over the Phils, with just 8 games left to play. They have now won 14 straight. The Cards are the much better team here, pretty much across the board, with the better of two mediocre offenses and bullpens. As for the two starting pitchers, Jon Lester has a lousy 1.47 WHIP and 4.59 ERA. His xERA and metrics are even worse with a poor 14% K rate. However, Adrian Sampson is no better and might even be worse. Sampson, who hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2019, has made 3 starts since being recalled from the AAA, and all 3 graded as below average. I don’t like or trust Lester, but I’m not stepping in front of this Cards team, especially with Sampson on the hill for the Cubs. Betting on Lester scares the hell out of me, but the Cards won with JA Happ on Thursday and they should win, even with Lester.
Pick – STL ML in a series of parlays
PITT @ PHIL: Wil Crowe v Ranger Suarez
The Phils came from behins for the third straight day to pull out an 8-6 win last night, but still trail the Braves by 2 games in the NL East and are 5 games behind the Cards in the NL wild card race They have surprisingly struggled to cover 1st 5s in their last three games, but came back to win all three. The Pirates are a bad, but pesky team. The Phils have the vastly superior offense, while the Pirates, at least statistically have a bullpen edge, but the Phils pen has been better since adding Ian Kennedy at the trade deadline. He has converted 10 0ff 13 save opportunities, including last night’s game, and that was his 5th straight save. As for the two starting pitchers, Crowe has started 23 games for the Pirates this season with just 8 grading as above average and 15 grading as below average, including 4 of his last 5. His WHIP, ERA and metrics are all awful, with a very high walk rate. Ranger Suarez has started 10 games with 9 grading as above average and just 1 grading as below average. In those 10 starts he has posted a 1,1.21 WHIP and 1.99 ERA. In his limited start Suarez has looked a lot better than Crowe. I’ll take the better team, with the better starting pitcher, that needs this game.
Pick – PHI 1sy 5 and full game ML in parlays.
NYY @ BOS: Nestor Cortes v Nick Pivettai
This game is again huge for both team. The Red Sox still lead the AL wild card race, but by just 1 `games over the Yankees, with the Blue Jays just 2 back and the Mariners 3 back. It’s a four-team race for two spots. The Red Sox have the better offense by a wide margin, but the Yanks hold a clear bullpen edge. Over the second half of the season to Sox pen has imploded. As for the two starting pitchers, Nestor Cortes has started 12 games for the Yankees with 8 grading as above average, including 3 of his last 4, and 4 grading as below average. His 1.07 WHIP and 2.94 ERA as a starter are both excellent The Red Spx haven’t seen him April 4, when he tossed two perfect innings out of the bullpen, striking out 4. Nick Pivetta has started 28 games for the Red Sox, with more below average starts (15), than above average ones (13), and he’s trending in the wrong direction with 4 of his last 5 grading as below average. Pivetta’s 1.34 WHIP and 4.63 ERA are both mediocre and his ERA metrics are all consistent with that mediocre ERA. He also has a high 10.2% walk rate. Everything about Pivetta’s overall profile screams mediocrity. His career 1.41 WHIP and 5.20 ERA pretty much says it all.
Pick – NYY 1st 5 ML (-102 for 2 units)