For what it’s worth, yesterday was less than stellar. The stats tell us that the team that wins the 1st 5 wins the full game about 80% of the time, so betting a team to win both is usually profitable, but not yesterday. Of the Of the six teams that I used on my parlay card, the Dodgers, Braves, Reds, Phils and Astros, none of them won both the 1st 5 and full game. Three, the Dodgers, Braves and Phils all split, while the Astros pushed and lost, and the Reds lost both. That makes for a piss poor parlay card.
At this point in the season., detailed write-ups are almost irrelevant for me. We pretty much know what we have with these teams and most of these pitchers, so until the playoffs start, I will be taking a week off from doing detailed write-ups. All you’ll get is a pick and a line or two explaining why. Sorry, but I need a beak.
Here’s what I’m betting today. Yes, I still betting parlays when the lines are too high. Hopefully tings normalize tonight. Here’s the parlay card.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
STL ML
|
126
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
132
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
SF ML
|
125
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
LAD 1st 5
|
1117
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
LAD ML
|
113
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
STL ML
|
124
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
SF 1st 5
|
129
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
SF ML
|
123
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
LAD 1st 5
|
115
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
LAD ML
|
111
|
2
|
|
STL ML
|
SF 1st 5
|
143
|
2
|
|
STL ML
|
SF ML
|
136
|
2
|
|
STL ML
|
LAD 1st 5
|
128
|
2
|
|
STL ML
|
LAD ML
|
123
|
2
|
|
SF 1st 5
|
LAD 1st 5
|
133
|
2
|
|
SF 1st 5
|
LAD ML
|
129
|
2
|
|
SF ML
|
LAD 1st 5
|
127
|
2
|
|
SF ML
|
LAD ML
|
122
|
2
|
NYY @ BOS: Gerrit Cole v Nathan Eovaldi
This game is huge for both team. The Red Sox lead the AL wild card race by 2 games over the Yankess, with the Blue Jays just 3 back and the Mariners 4. It’s a four-team race for two spots. The Red Sox have the better offense by a wide margin, but the Yanks hold a clear bullpen edge. Over the second half of the season to Sox pen has imploded. AS for the two starting pithers, they are both haveving good seasons. The overall stats point to Cole as being better than Eovaldi, but he is coming off a dreadful start *(7 runs and 10 hits in 5.2 innings), and has struggled in two of his last 3. Still, if there’s nothing physically wrong with him, I wouls expect a strong bounce-back effort tonight.
Pick – NYY 1st 5 RL (+116 for 2 units)
PITT @ PHIL: Sam Howard v Kyle Gibson
The Phil s trail the braves by 2 games in the NL East and are 45 games out in the wild card race They have surprisingly struggled to cover 1st 5s in their last two games, but came back to win them both. The Pirates are a bad but pesky team. The Phils have the vastly superior offense, while the Pirates, at least statistically have a bullpen edge. As for the two starting pitchers, Same Howard is a reliever, so this will probably be a bullpen game for the Pirates. Kyle Gibson is having a pretty good season, but has struggled recently. Still I’ll take the better team that needs this game, but thew price is so high that I have to parlay them.
Pick – PHI 1sy 5 and full game ML in parlays.
STL @ CHI C: Jack Flaherty v Zach Davies
The Cards hold the second NL wild card spot with a 4.5 lead over the Phils and have now won 13 straight. They are the much better team her across the board. Even fresh off the IL Flahery is sumply much better than Zach Daviies. I’m not stepping in front of this Cards team. If they could win with JA Happ, they should win with Flaherty too.
Pick – STL ML in a series of parlays
SF @ COL: Alex Wood v Peter Lambert
The Giants only lead the Dodgers by 1 game in the NL West. The offenses are both good, but the Giants should have a hige edge in the bullpen and at starting pitcher.
Pick – SF 1st 5 and full game MLs in a setries of parlays.
TOR @ MINN: Jose Berrios v Bailey Ober
The Jays are just 1 game behind the Yanks in the race for the final AL wild card spot. The Jays are the better of two good hitting teams and they have the better of two weak bullpens. They also have Jose Barrios who should be bette than Baailey Ober.
Pick – TOR 1st 5 RL (-105 for 2 units) and full game RL (+101 for 1 unit)
Late Games later